INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

02.05.2026

February 5^th, 2026

Greetings! President Donald Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy—we reviewed it here last December—envisioned pivoting away from the Middle East.

Instead, it is fast becoming the eye of the growing hurricane we warned about on January 27^th that is engulfing U.S. national security.

Today, Abu Dhabi hosted trilateral peace talks between the U.S., Russia & Ukraine. Tomorrow, the U.S. is scheduled to meet with Iran in Oman.

Photo credit: UAE Ministry Of Foreign Affairs. U.S., Russian & Ukrainian delegations meet in Abu Dhabi on February 4^th, 2026.

Elsewhere, as we noted yesterday, the New START Treaty stopped. Then—for a brief moment in time—it appeared to temporarily start again.

Until it didn’t. White House Press Secretary squashed reports that Washington & Moscow had agreed to honor the pactfor 6 months.

Confused?

So were we. It was like watching Abbott & Costello’s classic “Who’s on First?” comedy routine trying to figure it all out. Except this time—in real life—everyone is playing with a nuclear football.

Finally, Trump made it clear in a Truth Social post that he intends to negotiate “a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.” Notably, however, he didn’t mention China.

So, for now, it’s a nuclear arms race. As we argued yesterday, for the new treaty to be effective, Beijing must be a signatory.

For history buffs, we do not need a modern-day repeat of the Washington Naval Treaty signed in 1922.

Initially, the U.S. sought a 10:10:5 naval tonnage limit for the U.S., United Kingdom & Japan, respectively. In the end, it morphed into a 5:5:3 ratio that allowed the Empire of Japan to close the naval gap by the start of World War II.

Entering into a bilateral nuclear treaty would create the same mistake. It would enable Chinese President Xi Jinping to catch up in the nuclear arms race.

***

We will have far more on Iran tomorrow. Clearly the U.S. was setting conditions ahead of the scheduled talks in Muscat. The virtual U.S. Embassy Iran’s warning for American citizens to leave Iran was one way.

Ditto Leavitt bluntly reminding Iran today that, “the President has many options at his disposal, aside from diplomacy as the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military in the history of the world.” There was also the curious story that popped up—leaked?—in The National citing sources that the U.S. was seeking “an alternative to the current regime in Iran.”

Their common denominator?

The White House is signaling to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that this is their last chance at reaching a negotiated settlement. We highly doubt they will take it.

Khamenei—in our opinion—is gambling he can survive whatever this hurricane blowing in from the West can throw at him.

***

Today, however, we want to focus on the trilateral talks that ended in Abu Dhabi in this special edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report. Ostensibly, the meetings were supposed to be about reaching a peace deal in Ukraine.

In reality, they were anything but that. Let’s get started explaining why!

***

The U.S. military has an expression for what went on in Abu Dhabi today—a finger drill. Essentially, a lot of effort is given to something that does not solve the problem.

The problem in this case?

Ending the war in Ukraine.

Rustem Umerov, one of Ukraine’s leading negotiators, characterized the first day as “substantive and productive,” while noting that the sessions primarily “focused on concrete steps and practical solutions.”

Photo credit; Tetiana Dzhafarova / AFP. Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security & Defense Council Rustem Umerov in Kyiv on January 3^rd, 2026.

That was—we suspect—Umerov’s way of saying “Yada, yada, yada.”

The primary outcomes of Wednesday’s trilateral meeting were a prisoner exchange involving 314 soldiers & notably Washington & Moscow agreeing to “reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue.”

In that light, Abu Dhabi seemed to be more about mending U.S. & Russia relations than bringing the war in Ukraine to an end.

The negotiators simply ignored the four biggest issues:

1. The Donbas;

2. Russian drone & missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, critical infrastructure, and civilians in their homes;

3. Security guarantees; and

4. The size of Ukraine’s standing army.

Trump made it clear last November, “The ultimate goal is peace. That’s the most important thing that can be achieved here. Stop the fighting, stop the killing. Those are the main things he wants out of this.”

What is being done to achieve that outcome?

Broken ceasefires?

Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has not delivered any tangible results—only a shadowy bromance with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev that has prolonged the war.

NATO does not have an answer either—other than to throw more resources (money, weapons, munitions) at Ukraine to defend themselves. They do not want to be part of the solution—meaning ending the war––if that means directly confronting Russia.

Instead, Brussels is prematurely focused on what comes after the war is over. NATO won’t fight now but they talk grandly of being part of the post-war security guarantee solution & ceasefire violation enforcement.

How convenient.

Earlier, on Tuesday, while speaking before Ukraine’s parliament, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Ukraine would see an immediate military presence from allied forces as soon as a peace agreement with Russia was reached.

Photo credit: NATO. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte addressing the Verkhovna Rada—Ukraine’s parliament—in Kyiv on February 3^rd, 2026.

He boasted that, “There will instantly appear armed forces, planes in the sky, and maritime support from those in NATO who have agreed.”

Basically—and, in our view, unrealistically—believing NATO can contain any future Russian aggression within Ukraine’s borders.

Moreover, there is already a plan in the works. Never mind that the war rages on. Nonetheless—according to the Financial Times—a ‘coalition of the willing’ has developed a multi-tiered plan for enforcing any post-war ceasefire with Russia, to which Ukraine purportedly has agreed in principle.

As we noted in our Tuesday edition of INTREP360 Intelligence Report, “This is a bureaucratic solution to an active combat problem set. It is an environment that requires real-time decisions—not 24, 48 or 72 hours to examine a ceasefire violation, debate its merits, then have a board comprised of ‘coalition of the willing’ countries, who likely must unanimously agree on an action, vote on a response.”

NATO & the ‘coalition of the willing’ are simply waiting for the U.S. to solve the problem by negotiating a peace deal. Yet they are skipping a step—getting Russia to stop attacking Ukraine. The killing that Trump tells us he wants to stop only happens when Russia stops attacking. It really is that simple.

Putin on the other hand believes that peace is achieved when Ukraine is completely destroyed & there is no more resistance. The Ukrainian military, the country’s culture, its language, & the people.

By any other name, that is the United Nations definition of genocide. The disconnect between Putin’s intentions and Washington & Brussels belief that Moscow can be brought to the negotiating table is very real.

As the saying goes, “if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem.” Many in the West are falling into this category.

Ukraine needs decisive military action & aid today, not hypothetical security guarantees after the war.

We have said this many times in many ways—in The Hill, the New York Post, the Kyiv Post, and most recently in our INTREP360 Intelligence Report—but it is worth saying again & again & again:

Ukraine needs a No-Fly Zone to protect their critical energy infrastructure and civilian population. They also need a means to defeat the Russian drone & missile threat – weapon systems, munitions, & intelligence.

The former shoots drones & ballistic missiles out of the sky—defense.

The latter destroys missile launchers, radars, command and control centers, missile & drone storage and production facilities, and aircraft and the runways from which they launch—a proactive defense.

Both require direct confrontation with the enemy—Russia.

One over the skies of Ukraine, the other on Russian territory, or from wherever they fire their missiles or drones.

Violence of action is the only course of action Russia understands & respects. Up until now, Ukraine has been the only one to deliver it.

Chiefly because Zelensky & his generals do not fear Putin. Mad Vlad is derisively called “grandpa in his bunker” for a reason. He fears Zelensky, but probably Kyrylo Budanov—the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine—even more.

***

It is time for the finger drills to stop. NATO, the U.S. & the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ need to find their inner Patton or U.S. Grant. Especially since their Neville Chamberlain-like approach to ending this war is never going to work.

Ukraine isn’t 1938 Czechoslovakia in the years leading up to World War II. They are not going to commit national suicide.

***

ICYMI!

In our latest Thursday 7 AM ET column at The Hill in Washington DC, we examined the strange, shadowy bromance of Steve Witkoff & Kirill Dmitriev. Team Trump must put an end to it & bring back the generals & diplomats.

Photo credit: Kristina Kormilitsyna, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP. Kirill on the left, Witkoff on the right.

***

ICYMI BONUS!

If you need an example of Ukraine’s heart & resilience, check out this young Ukrainian girl welcoming home Ukrainian soldiers who were held as prisoners of war.

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦@IAPonomarenko

🇺🇦 Soldiers coming home

6:20 PM · Feb 5, 2026 · 94.7K Views

---

176 Replies · 1.39K Reposts · 9.55K Likes

She’s a hero in our book too!

***

Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.