INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.03.2026
February 3rd, 2026
Greetings! For now—it seems—the bad guys are taking the initiative while the good guys play it safe.
Earlier today, Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed a massive missile & drone barrage against Ukraine. Temperatures in Kyiv were -4 degrees Fahrenheit (-20 degrees Celsius for our European readers).
It was Moscow’s largest use of ballistic missiles—reportedly 70 in all—since the start of the war & 32 of them found their targets.
Photo credit: Serhii Okunev / AFP. Fire is seen coming from an apartment building following a Russian air attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, early on Feb. 3rd, 2026
Elsewhere, Iran—as expected—keeps moving the goalposts when it comes to negotiating with Team Trump. Tehran, after initially agreeing to talks in Turkey, demanded that they be moved to Oman.
Team Trump agreed.
Meanwhile—in the Persian Gulf—Iran began probing operations to test U.S. military responses. No doubt, they were intended as messaging to Washington as well ahead of Friday’s scheduled meeting in Muscat.
More on all those stories below as we sweep the globe in search of the top stories impacting U.S. national security.
Let’s get started!
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NORTH AMERICA
President Donald Trump did it again—and, candidly, it is getting old. He keeps equating Putin & Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Yesterday, Trump—for the umpteenth time since the start of his second term—noted that, “There is tremendous hatred between Putin & Zelensky.” Trump went on to say—ignoring who invaded who—that, “It’s a shame.”
Let’s set the record straight. Putin is the one who ordered the invasion of Ukraine. He is the bad guy here.
Zelensky is the one defending his country from an illegal invasion—one that Russia was and is—obligated under its Article 42 obligations of a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to prevent. He is the good guy.
Trump—regardless of motive—must stop creating a moral equivalence between the two men. There is none. Putin is an indicted war criminal. Zelensky is not.
That said, Trump’s approach is simply self-defeating. Putin couldn’t care less whether Trump likes him or not.
Moscow is simply playing Team Trump for time. Putin is not serious about reaching a peace deal short of one that would result in the complete capitulation of Ukraine to Russia. That isn’t going to happen.
Ukraine—as we’ve said many times—is not going to commit national suicide. Nor is Putin suddenly going to become a good guy.
He continues to play Trump for a fool & every time Trump falls for it, Putin gets another day to continue attacking Ukraine without any new consequences. Russia isn’t going to stop fighting until Trump changes Putin’s cost calculus.
Equipping Ukraine with U.S.-made precision deep-strike Tomahawks would do just that. Finally implementing secondary oil sanctions against Russia would help as well.
Yet—maddeningly!—Trump keeps placating Putin. Today, once again, Trump covered for Putin when asked about Russia’s overnight attack on Ukraine.
Instead of condemning Putin, Trump disingenuously claimed that the Russian president “kept his word.”
No, he did not.
Ironically—but not surprisingly—Trump hinted yesterday that he would have “good news” on ending the war in Ukraine. Putin just disabused him—and anyone else who doesn’t get it yet—of that fantasy notion.
It is time for Trump to stop falling for Putin’s act. The end of this war is not in sight. Not even the beginning of the end. As Zelensky noted, today’s attack “speaks volumes about Russia’s promises.” He—like us—believes Putin’s promises to be worthless.
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SOUTH AMERICA
Colombian President Gustavo Petro said his meeting earlier today with Trump in the Oval Office had an “optimistic and constructive tone.” Trump, in turn, noted that the two leaders “got along very well” as they talked about U.S. sanctions, drug trafficking & Venezuela.
Photo credit: BBC. Colombian President Gustavo Petro, left, President Donald Trump, right, meeting in the Oval Office on February 3rd, 2026.
Notably, during a press gaggle, Trump gave an update on Venezuela. He noted that he is also getting along with acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez and that “[The U.S.] … took in 50 million barrels of oil. It’s right now heading to Houston.”
Significantly, Trump said that he was willing to work with Colombia to fight rebels operating in Venezuela. The National Liberation Army (ELN)—a leftist group that is classified by the U.S. as a foreign terrorist organization—has attacked oil & energy facilities inside Colombia to extort payoffs.
That will be an ongoing problem—unless checked—if U.S. oil companies begin operating in Lake Maracaibo or the Orinoco Oil Belt in Venezuela.
***
EUROPE
In the category of ‘briefs well but will not survive contact’ is the Financial Times article today that says Ukraine has agreed to a multi-tiered plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia.
Under the plan:
1. A Russian ceasefire violation would trigger a response within 24 hours, beginning with a diplomatic warning and any action required from the Ukrainian army to halt the infraction;
2. If hostilities continued beyond that, a second phase of intervention would be initiated using forces from the so-called coalition of the willing, which includes many EU members plus the UK, Norway, Iceland and Turkey;
3. If the violation turned into an expanded attack, 72 hours after the initial breach, a coordinated military response by a Western-backed force involving the US military would take effect, the officials said.
This is a bureaucratic solution to an active combat problem set. It is an environment that requires real-time decisions––not 24, 48 or 72 hours to examine a ceasefire violation, debate its merits, then have a board comprised of ‘coalition of the willing’ countries, who likely must unanimously agree on an action––to vote on a response.
This will only get more people killed.
Russia will simply exploit this timeline & the process. Unless the U.S. or the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ have aircraft actively based in Ukraine & patrolling their skies, no response will be timely enough to make a difference. Skin in the game is only the deterrent that will work—and for now, no one is willing to confront Russia.
Not to mention the fact that this plan does not even address the current threat—the one killing Ukrainian civilians now. Last night, Russia once again targeted Ukraine’s energy sector—launching 521 drones & missiles.
This, after Trump told reporters that Putin agreed to halt attacks on Ukraine for one week after he raised concerns about the extreme cold weather affecting the country.
The Kremlin stated the ceasefire was only valid through last Sunday. But that is not what Kyiv was led to believe. According to Ukrainian officials, the energy ceasefire should have run through this Friday—the conclusion of the trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters, “Either Russia now believes that there are four incomplete days in a week instead of seven, or they are really betting only on war and waiting for the coldest days of this winter.”
Safe to say the latter. The Kremlin simply stockpiled weapons & waited for the most opportune time to strike.
Ukraine needs a solution now—not some plan for ‘after the war’ to enforce a ceasefire that does not even exist. Once-upon-a-time is for fairy tales.
The question is: What is the plan to stop the war now? Ukraine needs a No-Fly Zone to protect their critical energy infrastructure and civilian population. They also need a means to defeat the Russian drone & missile threat - weapon systems, munitions, & intelligence.
The former shoots drones & ballistic missiles out of the sky—defense.
The latter destroys missile launchers, radars, command and control centers, missile & drone storage and production facilities, and aircraft and the runways from which they launch—a proactive defense.
Both require direct confrontation with the enemy—Russia.
One over the skies of Ukraine, the other in Russian territory, or from wherever they fire a missile or drone, which puts Belarus in the crosshairs. That is the only response the Kremlin will respect—and one, that up until now, only Ukraine has delivered.
You cannot assume that away. Yet that is exactly what the multi-tiered plan for enforcing the post-war ceasefire does.
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte traveled to Kyiv today in the aftermath of Putin’s strikes. He visited a heating plant hit by Moscow.
He said all the right things. E.g., “Ukraine stands strong. And NATO stands with you.” But that’s not enough. As Garry Kasparov—the former Russian World Chess Champion—noted, enough “standing” & more doing.
His thoughts?
“Cut off Russia’s ability to fund its war machine and give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself. Both of these things could be done today and save countless innocent lives.”
We agree.
***
MIDDLE EAST
Iran—as noted above—continues to play games with Washington. But now they are becoming dangerous.
Earlier today, a U.S. F-35C fighter jet operating from the USS Abraham Lincoln was forced to shoot down an Iranian drone that was headed toward the carrier. Tehran—clearly—is probing U.S. military responses & is messaging Washington that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei does not intend to go quietly.
Initially, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal, Trump considered canceling talks with Iran scheduled for later this week in Oman. Nonetheless, Karoline Leavitt—Trump’s White House spokesperson—later confirmed that the talks are still on.
The other probing incident involved the U.S.-flagged oil tanker Stena Imperative. It was operating in the Persian Gulf when Iranian gunboats attempted to seize the ship.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
The USS McFaul—also operating in the Persian Gulf—interdicted the gunboats & escorted the Stena Imperative. No shots were fired.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to try to set conditions for talks.
They are framing them as nuclear disarmament talks & attempting to ignore the street protests—and Khamenei’s killing of tens of thousands of Iranian protesters—and Tehran’s ballistic missile program & continued IRGC support of Iranian-backed militias (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, etc.).
Team Trump shouldn’t be fooled. Iran is using the prospect of nuke talks in a last-ditch attempt to avoid U.S. military strikes. As we argued here yesterday, it is just Iran’s version of kabuki theater & nothing has changed.
Khamenei will never permanently give up his nuclear weapons program. He may—temporarily—trade parts of it to survive but if his regime is allowed to survive, Iran will immediately resume chasing nukes.
Meanwhile, the U.S. buildup of military assets in the Middle East continues. That is a good thing. It is highly likely they will be needed.
***
INDO-PACIFIC
In today’s most underreported story, China isn’t happy with Panama. Last week, Panama’s Supreme Court annulled Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s deal to operate two strategic ports on the Pacific & Caribbean side of the Panama Canal.
In response, China is initiating international arbitration hearings to reverse Panama’s decision. A ruling that Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO)—they are part of the Chinese government— labeled as “absurd, shameful and pathetic.”
Beijing is also threatening retaliation. HKMAO warned that “Heavy prices both politically and economically will surely be paid” if Panama continues to give in to U.S. pressure to turn control of both facilities over to an American company.
Trump’s Corollary—for now—is working. But Chinese President Xi Jinping is not going to give up easily.
***
ICYMI!
On Sunday, Mark was on TVP World’s World News Tonight to discuss the latest on the war in Ukraine. Our good friend––Don Arleth––hosted. He also frequently hosts TVP World’s Ukraine This Week. You can follow Don on X at @DonArleth.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
DATELINE KYIV - DAY 1442 : 4368
Good report.
Three comments:
1) Only the decisive defeat of the Russian Federation's armed forces in Ukraine will ensure a just and lasting peace, Russian accountability, and a brighter future for Europe and the world;
2) Garry Kasparov's point is well taken: "Enough standing" ... it's time for NATO, in particular, to get serious about enabling Ukraine to win this war outright and the sooner the better; and
3) NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is plainly not up to the task at hand. It's time for him to pack his bags and ride off into the sunset. Full stop.
V/r - IB
An American in Ukraine
(2019 - Present)