INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

01.27.2026

January ^27th, 2026

Greetings! Sometimes when analyzing national security, it’s difficult to determine whether we are in the calm before the storm or in the eye of the hurricane.

We believe it is the latter.

Photo credit: NASA. Hurricane Florence as seen from the International Space Station in September 2018.

War drums are beating louder & faster in the Mideast. Peace talks in Ukraine are likely on a road to nowhere.

Palace intrigue & rumors of a coup attempt are gripping Beijing. Europe & the U.S. are engaging in a war of words—and, increasingly, in a war of economies.

Plus, everywhere, everything seems to be on edge. Let’s get started trying to see through the storm clouds!

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NORTH AMERICA

It is 85 seconds to midnight. Or at least it is in Chicago. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science & Security Board at the University of Chicago advanced the Doomsday Clock by 4 seconds earlier today.

They cautioned that “Russia, China, the United States, and other major countries have ... become increasingly aggressive, adversarial, and nationalistic.” Great power competition is now the norm, not the exception.

The board also noted that a new nuclear arms race has broken out between Moscow, Beijing & Washington. China is increasing the size of its nuclear arsenal & all three nations are focused on modernizing their delivery platforms.

Concerns over climate change, misuse of biotech & artificial intelligence round out their justification for moving the clock closer to midnight.

Of course, the Doomsday Clock is merely allegorical. That said, especially in the eye of this hurricane, it is warranted as we will see below.

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SOUTH AMERICA

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to brief lawmakers tomorrow—Wednesday—that the U.S. is prepared to use additional military force if interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez fails to comply with Washington’s demands.

Photo credit: Jesus Vargas / Getty Images. Rodríguez speaking at the Federal Legislative Palace, Caracas on January 16^th, 2026.

Those demands—according to Bloomberg News—include opening Venezuela’s energy sector to U.S.-based companies, agreeing to give American oil companies preferential access, & using oil revenues to purchase U.S. goods.

Rubio’s prepared remarks imply if Rodríguez doesn’t meet Team Trump’s expectations, she could meet a similar fate as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Our Spidey sense—storm clouds notwithstanding—suggests that Washington is making it clear that any forthcoming U.S. military action in Iran shouldn’t be interpreted by Caracas as an opportunity to stall for time.

Plus, no one should lose sight of the fact that Rodríguez has her own close ties with Russia, Cuba & the Iranian regime.

***

EUROPE

Our radar antennas went up when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that Ukraine was ready to sign a post-war security agreement with the U.S. He noted at the time that it was “100%” ready.

Then crickets.

Photo credit: Mindaugas Kulbis/AP. Zelensky addresses a press conference in Vilnius, Lithuania on January 25^th, 2026.

Finally, today, Washington’s wall of silence was likely explained by reporting in the Financial Times. Purportedly, according to eight officials, “The Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely involve ceding the Donbas region to Russia.”

If so, then that’s absurd.

As we have frequently said, written & screamed (figuratively!) from the mountaintop, that would be akin to Ukraine agreeing to commit national suicide. That is not going to happen. Kyiv will not agree to unilateral withdrawal from the Donbas.

Even if Ukraine did, that would only lead to a forever war in Ukraine & Eastern Europe. This Thursday, we will have a lot more to say about that in our weekly 7 AM ET national security column at The Hill.

Meanwhile, despite the so-called “constructive” peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues waging his terror war against Ukrainian civilians. As we write this, Kyiv & other cities across Ukraine were struck by a barrage of Russian ballistic missiles & drones.

Civilian energy infrastructure was the target. At least one critical facility was hit compounding Ukraine’s ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Many families continue to be without power amid subzero temperatures. Putin’s weaponization of winter endures while Washington & Brussels look the other way. Boldly implementing a NATO-led no-fly zone over Western Ukraine would solve much of this & end the suffering of many men, women & children.

Ukraine’s hurricane is an icy one. Spring can’t come too soon. Especially since Putin won’t stop & NATO is unlikely to act.

Elsewhere in Europe, the hurricane fallout from Greenland & Trump’s Afghanistan comments continues. Denmark has made it clear that sovereignty is a redline when it comes to Greenland. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is flying to Beijing for trade talks.

***

MIDDLE EAST

War drums are beating faster & louder in Iran. Earlier today, while speaking in Clive, Iowa, President Donald Trump warned Tehran that “There’s another beautiful armada floating beautifully towards Iran right now.”

Barak Ravid—an Axios reporter with unmatched direct access to Trump—is reporting that Team Trump believes “Tehran genuinely wants to cut a deal.”

Color is skeptical. While we concur that Iran wants to talk—Tehran always is willing to talk; it is one of their chief ways of buying time—they are not likely to agree to Trump’s terms in several key areas.

Yes, potentially, Tehran would be willing to trade existing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium—especially its known 901 pounds of 60% HEU—to ward off any U.S. military strikes on Iran in the wake of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s bloody crackdown on the recent widespread protests.

Doing so—however—would be only transactional in nature. Khamenei is not going to give up enriching uranium. For him, it is a question of national pride. It is also—in Tehran’s view—its only way to strategically check Israel.

Khamenei is intent on acquiring nukes. No deal—just as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action failed to do—is going to deter Iran.

Likewise, Iran is not going to give up its proxies. Khamenei views them as a strategic part of his deterrence against Israel. Hezbollah & Hamas may be down but Tehran—if left unchecked—is not going to abandon them.

Team Trump knows that. Trump’s so-called Board of Peace has no chance of succeeding in Gaza if Khamenei is allowed to survive to fight another day. Likewise, the Abraham Accords won’t be able to expand until Khamenei & his regime are gone.

Bear in mind, Phase II of the ceasefire deal between Hamas & Israel last October has now officially started. The Israel Defense Forces––with the assistance of Hamas––recovered the remains of Master Sgt. Ran Gvili, an Israeli police officer taken hostage on Oct. 7.

That accounts for every hostage taken or killed. It also paves the way for Israel to allow two-way traffic in Rafah between Gaza & Egypt.

Moving forward in the Middle East requires moving beyond Khamenei & his thugs. That can’t happen if he is allowed to stay in power.

While we always avoid the prediction—our goal is to get the story right, not to predict or to be first—our sense is that the Pentagon doesn’t assemble this much U.S. firepower in the Persian Gulf region without Trump’s intent to use it.

Time will tell. But for now, the center of our allegorical hurricane is sitting squarely over Khamenei & his regime.

***

AFRICA

Africa’s ruinous hurricane is an economic one. Based on a new analysis issued by ONE Data, the continent as a whole is “now transferring more funds to China in debt payments than [it receives] in fresh financing from” Beijing.

During 2020 through 2024—the most current time period available—Africa went from receiving $30 billion from Beijing to paying $22 billion. In total, that was a whopping $52 billion swing in the wrong direction.

China’s economic grip is fast becoming crippling. Carpetbaggers are one thing—Beijing is certainly that—but bear in mind that China is also stripping Africa of many of its natural resources. The dictators it supports win, but it is the people who are paying the short- & long-term economic price.

***

INDO-PACIFIC

Give Chinese President Xi Jinping some credit. He’s managed to create his own whirlwind hurricane in Beijing.

Last Saturday, the Chinese Defense Ministry abruptly announced that Gen. Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, had been accused of committing gross “violations of discipline and law.”

Photo credit: Li Gang/AP. Xi Jinping, left, & Zhang Youxia, right; in Beijing, 2025.

Until then, Youxia had been in charge of China’s military. While there is talk that he sold the U.S. nuclear secrets, in all likelihood his ouster—purge, really— is due to a political falling out with Xi. If so, that in itself is highly notable given that Youxia was a long-time ally of the Chinese President.

Purges, as we noted in September 2023 at The Hill, have long been part of Xi’s playbook—his version, if you will, of Mao Zedong’s ‘Little Red Book.’ Doing so has enabled Xi to amass an unprecedented level of power in China.

Not even Mao was as powerful as Xi is now. Essentially—in Agatha Christie terms—this is coming down to & then there were none.

None save Xi.

Corruption accusations have been the means. Consolidation of Xi’s personal political power has been the end goal.

That’s where it gets scary for Taiwan. Youxia, arguably, as many analysts have noted, is the only military official who likely had the stature—and formerly the trust of Xi—to tell him militarily seizing Taiwan might be a bad idea.

Other analysts disagree. They believe it will make Xi more cautious—at least in the short-term—and hesitant to act.

Our sense?

As the saying goes, “Absolute power corrupts absolutely.” The White House needs to watch this one closely. The “Red Team” scenario that we outlined in our INTREP360 Intelligence Report for 01.23.2026 may have just gotten closer to reality.

Xi’s political hurricane—especially if the U.S. gets militarily bogged down in Iran—may engulf Taiwan in the process.

For now, however, we are in the eye of the hurricane. No predictions—yet!—of when it makes landfall.

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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.