INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.09.2026
January 9th, 2026
Greetings! It has not been a good week for the Axis of Evil – including Russia, China, North Korea or Iran – nor for their junior partners in Venezuela or Cuba.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was toppled by the U.S. Russian President Vladimir Putin & his navy were humiliated by a U.S. Coast Guard cutter in the North Atlantic. Chinese President Xi Jinping was left fearing that his Belt & Road Initiative investments – surpassing $180 billion – are nearing the end of the road.
AI image generated by Grok. Depicts, Putin, Xi, Kim Jong-un, Khamenei & a toppled Maduro as pieces on a geo-strategic chessboard.
Now, given growing protests in Iran against the regime of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Axis of Evil is bracing itself for another week of geo-strategic losses. Not just in Iran & the Mideast, but elsewhere around the world.
Let’s get started finding them!
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NORTH AMERICA
Perhaps the biggest loss this week for the Axis of Evil was President Donald Trump’s declaration that he is seeking to increase U.S. defense spending to $1.5 trillion or roughly 5% of GDP – or the same spending level he demanded of NATO.
It remains to be seen whether Congress – Democrats or Republicans – have the stomach for it. Especially since the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) calculates that it would add $5.8 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years.
Regardless, it was a warning shot fired at Putin & Xi. As we noted yesterday in The Hill, Russia’s economy is stagnating. Putin – even if he were to increase defense spending – simply doesn’t have a large enough remaining work force to grow production in any meaningful way.
That’s what happens when you kill or maim 1,216,930 of your workforce in Ukraine & show no signs of stopping.
It is also why Russia’s own fiscal projections show defense spending being relatively flat for the next three years.
Graph credit: The Moscow Times.
Beijing, to date, hasn’t reacted to Trump’s call for $1.5 trillion in defense spending. Undoubtedly, Xi is not pleased. Last April, in the wake of the White House’s record $1 trillion defense plan, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang sharply noted that the “wanton use of force will not make America great again.”
Xi didn’t like it then. He will not like it now.
Moscow & Beijing are facing yet another major looming setback. Trump – finally! – is backing secondary sanctions against Russia.
If passed – as it should be! – “the legislation would place secondary sanctions on countries such as China and India that buy oil and gas from Russia in a bid to cut off the cash flow for President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.”
They will hit Putin the hardest. But Beijing will also pay a significant price given their reliance on cheap Russian energy imports.
Just. Get. It. Done!
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SOUTH AMERICA
Granted, Cuba is only a junior partner of the Axis of Evil & a minor one at that. However, Havana & its troops on the ground did play an outsized role in propping up Maduro’s regime in Venezuela.
It is difficult to get an exact number – for example, The Washington Post reported in 2019 that White House officials claimed there were between 20,000 & 25,000 Cubans in Venezuela. Not all of them may have been troops.
We just don’t know. Not to any degree of certainty.
What we do know is that 32 Cuban military personnel were killed during the capture of Maduro by the U.S.
Plus, regardless of numbers, Caracas is now under heavy U.S. pressure to expel all Cuban troops & advisers from Venezuela.
Photo credit: Cuban Mission. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel shaking Maduro’s hand in 2023.
Notably, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s first official trip abroad after succeeding Raul Castro was to visit Maduro in Caracas in 2018. Then, he said, “”Very happy to be in Venezuela; and long live the Bolivarian revolution, and also, long live President Maduro.”
That was then, this is now.
Cuba, in the wake of Maduro’s fall, is in trouble. The Latin American Post reports that “Blackouts now leave [Cubans] with just four hours of electricity daily. Households [are forced] to use petroleum-run stoves for cooking.”
Notwithstanding Cuba’s need for Venezuelan oil, Trump – undoubtedly at the behest of Secretary of State Marco Rubio – is gunning for Cuba.
Video credit: The White House.
Today, at the White House, Trump said “Cuba’s in bad shape.” He also implied that Cuba, absent Venezuelan aid, is facing an existential crisis.
Absent Chinese or Russian economic intervention, Cuba might very well be the next Axis of Evil junior member to fall. Time will tell. If Cuba falls to the West, then it will be on Putin’s watch giving him one more defeat.
Meanwhile, the U.S. continued to apply pressure on Delcy Rodríguez, the new interim president of Venezuela. The U.S. continues interdicting sanctioned oil tankers & the White House is making it clear Rodríguez will have to play by their rules or else (the else being more kinetic U.S. military action).
She appears to be getting the one-way message. Trump dispatched a U.S. delegation to meet with representatives of her government.
Elsewhere, at the White House, you’d be forgiven if you thought Trump’s meeting with U.S. oil company executives was an episode out of “Dallas” – the 1980s classic TV show starring Larry Hagman.
Only J.R. Ewing was missing.
The cartel, however, was wheeling & dealing. Made up of Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Chevron & others, they collectively agreed to speed $100 billion “to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector with U.S. protection.
If that happens – and it is still a big if – then it would be a huge economic blow to the Axis of Evil, especially Beijing.
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EUROPE
Predictably, as we noted here yesterday, Russia formally rejected Trump’s 20-point peace offer to end the war in Ukraine.
Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did come away with a win. Now that Europe has agreed to a robust post-war coalition of the willing military force to safeguard Ukraine from a future invasion, Zelensky was able to establish a floor.
Putin can demand more, however, it will be difficult – if not impossible absent a major battlefield defeat – for Europe to back away from that negotiating position. Creating that floor – a line in the sand, if you will – was a huge win for Zelensky.
Moscow knows it is fast running out of options. Firing a Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) at Lviv – a city in far Western Ukraine – as intended to be a show of Russian strength.
Instead, it just demonstrated weakness. It proves – other than nuclear bluffing – that Putin is out of credible threats on the battlefield (at least for now).
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MIDDLE EAST
Iran is wobbling. Tehran – a charter member of the Axis of Evil – is devolving into chaos & potentially revolution.
Clearly, Khamenei’s regime sees it as an existential moment. The internet is now completely shut down throughout the country which has failed to stem widespread protests that are taking place across the entire nation.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Notably, protests are growing inside of the capital city of Tehran. As of tonight, the Institute for the Study of War has “recorded at least 56 protests … 34 of which were medium-sized protests and 11 of which were large protests.”
They are also intensifying throughout Iran. Reports of protesters being killed are becoming more widespread.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Khamenei – or at least those who run his social media accounts on X – appears to be panicking as the unrest deepens.
Essentially, he ranted like a scorned spouse or parent. Khamenei ping-ponged back & forth attacking Trump & accusing Iranians of treachery.
Maybe he just had too much coffee. Or maybe life in a bunker is finally getting to him the same way that it did to Nazi Chancellor Adolf Hiter in 1945.
It is likely the latter.
Why?
His posts increasingly are detached from reality. Khamenei’s mental state notwithstanding, this is entering a dangerous phase.
The internet is down. Banks are closed. And, as the ISW reports, it appears as if Khamenei is getting close to unleashing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards on the protesters. If so, then it will be decision time for Trump as to how & where to intervene given his earlier threats to Khamenei that the U.S. would do just that.
***
AFRICA
If Khamenei & his regime does fall – sooner or later – they will always have South Africa as a memory. For the next week, Chinese, Russian & Iranian warships will be conducting joint naval exercises.
They are operating out of Simonstown Naval Base – South Africa’s largest. South of Cape Town, the strategic port guards vital commercial shipping lanes where the Atlantic Ocean converges with the Indian Ocean.
Photo credit: Airial Travel. Naval Base Simonstown.
The drills are ostensibly under the guise of BRICS – an economic alliance that includes Brazil, India, China & South Africa – however, in reality, that is just a cover. Their purpose is very much military & it is aimed at the West.
As we warned last year at The New York, Moscow & Beijing seek to dominate key shipping routes including Greenland, Panama & the Strait of Magellan. Plus, as we cautioned here on January 5th, the Kremlin is securing its position in Madagascar that would allow for Russian forces to dominate the Mozambique Channel.
Both of these regions are vital to U.S. naval & commercial shipping in the event of the Suez Canal being closed.
Moscow is attempting to play the same game in North Africa & the Horn of Africa where Putin continues to try & obtain ports in Tobruk, Libya & Djibouti, respectively.
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INDO-PACIFIC
Xi likely sees all of this – at least from an Axis of Evil standpoint – as a slow-motion trainwreck in the making. He also likely knows he needs to create a distraction to stop Trump’s momentum in shaping geo-strategic events.
Creating a crisis in the Indo-Pacific might be one way. Japan, the Philippines & Taiwan might – repeat, might! – serve that purpose.
We will be exploring this deeper next week as we are out of space for today.
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Thanks for reading! We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.