INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.08.2026
January 8th, 2026
Greetings! Democracy can’t die in the darkness, but it is bloody challenging in the cold of winter. Historical U.S. wartime examples abound.
Gen. George Washington at Valley Forge in 1778. The 101st Airborne during the Battle of the Bulge in 1944. The Battle of Chosin Reservoir in 1950.
Human bravery & grit overcame each.
Ukrainians are enduring a cold winter of their own. It is not the first of this war. Nor, we fear, will it be the last.
Photo credit: Yuriy Dyachyshyn/AFP. Honor guard in Lviv, Ukraine.
Especially since earlier today, Moscow rejected today President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine. Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, accused Europe & the U.S. of “forming a true axis of war.”
The idea of a post-war “multinational force” in Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression remains unacceptable to the Kremlin.
In other words, Russia doesn’t want any future obstacles – especially a coalition of the willing made up of European countries – blocking their way if & when they attempt to invade Ukraine for a third time.
(More like when, not if!)
Zakharova wasn’t done. She then repeated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tired talking points. No peace unless Ukraine is non-aligned. No peace unless the country is denuded of its military. No peace unless Kyiv is denazified.
The kicker?
No peace unless Ukraine voluntarily withdraws from all territory Putin claims as his own after annexing them in 2022 as a result of sham referenda.
That’s not going to happen. Ukraine is not going to commit military & national suicide to appease the Kremlin.
Putin knows it. The Ukrainians know it & Team Trump knows it as well.
Moscow’s response?
Target Ukrainian civilians. Again & again & again. That is all Putin has left in his arsenal: terror weapons.
Tonight, however, they were especially heinous. According to The Kyiv Independent, “four people were killed and 13 others injured in Kyiv.”
Video credit: The Kyiv Post.
One of those killed – a paramedic – died after what is known as a “double tap.” A delayed second strike designed to kill first responders.
Earlier this morning, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv issued a warning about “a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next several days.” The report while vague, was unusual & hinted at something far bigger than normal.
Photo credit: Kyiv Post.
Now, we know why the U.S. issued the alert. Based on Ukrainian air force report, it is likely that the Pentagon assessed that Russia was preparing to launch a nuclear-capable intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) from Kapustin Yar, a Russian nuclear research site near the Caspian Sea.
Kyiv, as it turned out, was likely just a distraction. Lviv — in far western Ukraine near the Polish border — was the main target.
It does appear that Lviv was hit by an IRBM this evening. We reached out to Daniel Tkiie, one of the TV hosts of our War & Politics 24 newsmagazine show that is produced in Lviv, and he told us that “The Russians used an IRBM without a nuclear warhead against energy target — there was no real military value in doing so.”
Photo credit: First Western TV. Left to right, clockwise, Tkiie, Sweet & Toth.
Tkiie believes – and we concur – that “It was meant as a [Russian] show of force toward Trump and the rest of the world after their humiliation in Venezuela and the Atlantic.” Our colleague added that, “People heard strange sounds from the missile, but no one was killed or injured in Lviv.”
It is not yet officially confirmed if the Russian IRBM was the Oreshnik, Putin’s much vaunted & troubled Wunderwaffe (German for wonder-weapon). That said, Tkiie thinks that it was.
What is clear was its messaging. It wasn’t simply aimed at Lviv. Given the Ukrainian city’s near proximity to Poland & Romania, it was also aimed at NATO.
As Tkiie correctly assessed in his comments to us, “This was a carefully staged display of so-called strength, quickly forgotten within minutes.” He added – again, correctly – that “The only reason it appears frightening is through the lens of Western media—precisely one of Putin’s objectives in carrying out the strike.”
Plus, if there was any doubt that this was just Kremlin blustering, the IRMB’s multiple warheads – known as multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs) – were empty.
Team Trump must not fall for this. Nor should anyone. Putin is increasingly desperate & he is out of conventional kinetic cards.
As we noted in The Hill today, his army is stuck in Ukraine. His navy proved hapless when it came to protecting the Marinera from being seized by the U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Navy & the United Kingdom working together.
Plus, his economy is stagnating. He can’t find enough manpower to grow his economy while at the same time fight his war in Ukraine.
All he has left is to channel his inner Doctor Strangelove and to try & scare the West into thinking he’s going to nuke Ukraine or NATO.
AI image created by Grok. Putin as fictional Major T.J. “King” Kong.
Reality is Putin knows NATO has nukes too. He can message Washington & Brussels all he wants but he cannot change that reality. Putin is many things — including evil — but he is not suicidal.
Ukraine meanwhile fights on. Winter or not, they are determined to endure however many Valley Forges it may take to survive as a people & as an independent & sovereign nation.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow when we return to our regular format. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.