INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

01.05.2026

January ^5th, 2026

Greetings! What a difference a weekend makes! We woke up to a very different geo-strategic world Saturday morning after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by the U.S. during a Delta Force raid that began late Friday night.

AI image created by Grok. Maduro’s capture already has far-reaching global implications in Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, Greenland & Bogotá.

Maduro’s apprehension – intended or not – set off a chain of tumbling dominoes around the globe. While Caracas was the kinetic epicenter Saturday morning, the most intense aftershocks were felt in Ukraine, Russia, China, Iran, Denmark & Colombia.

Let’s get started identifying them & putting each into context as we return today to our regular INTREP360 format.

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NORTH AMERICA

Maduro, and his wife, Cillia Flores, were arraigned on drug trafficking charges this morning in New York City. You can read Maduro’s original March 26, 2020 grand jury indictment here at the Department of Justice.

Both pleaded not guilty.

Responding to a heckler, Maduro said in Spanish that, “I am a kidnapped president. I am a prisoner of war.”

Copenhagen could be forgiven if the tiny Scandinavian state feels it is under indictment as well in NYC.

On Sunday, Katie Miller – a former West Wing staffer who is married to Stephen Miller, President Donald Trump’s current White House deputy chief of staff for policy – posted a picture on X of a large map of Greenland blanketed in an American flag.

She captioned her post with one word: “SOON.” Her message, given her husband’s position, was not lost on Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

On Sunday, Frederiksen urged Trump to “stop the threats.” Earlier that day, during an interview with The Atlantic, he bluntly emphasized again that “We do need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense.”

It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that the first domino to fall after the Venezuela raid came in the form of collateral damage to a NATO ally: Denmark.

That’s not how this should be working. Yes, Greenland is key to defending the Western hemisphere. Especially given the melting of the Northern Sea Route which is opening up new shipping lanes in the Arctic.

We made that point at the New York Post last January. Trump’s Greenland & Panama messaging is aimed at Beijing. We made it again in mid-December, noting that Team Trump has backed his words up by announcing in October that the Coast Guard is purchasing 11 new – sorely needed –icebreakers.

Seizing Greenland militarily must be out of the question. Doing so would only provide Russian President Vladimir Putin & Chinese President Xi Jinping cover to justify their attempts to coerce Ukraine & Taiwan into submission.

Besides, as we will see below, there are geo-strategic wins to be had now at the expense of Russia and China & their Axis of Evil allies.

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SOUTH AMERICA

Caracas is on edge. As we began writing this, heavy anti-aircraft fire broke out over the capital city of Venezuela.

Turns out, it was friendly fire. It appears Venezuelan forces confused their own security drones for a second U.S. attack.

For now, it is not clear what is the next step. During his news conference on Saturday, Trump said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio & Pete Hegseth would be running the country. How they do that remains to be determined.

There are no U.S. boots on the ground in Venezuela. The Venezuelan army remains intact & Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in today as the country’s interim president.

Notably, after her swearing in, Rodríguez “was embraced by Chinese Ambassador to Venezuela Lan Hu, followed by Russian Ambassador Sergey Melik-Bagdasarov. Iranian Ambassador Ali Chegini then bowed toward her with his hands clasped together.”

Rodríguez being congratulated after swearing in by, left to right, the Iranian, Russian & Chinese ambassadors to Venezuela.

Maduro may be in a federal jail cell in NYC, but for now, at least, the Axis of Evil is still standing in Caracas. If the U.S. is to succeed in truly transforming Venezuela, then all three of those dominoes must fall.

Iran, as we warned in Friday’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report, is utilizing Venezuela to stage terrorist attacks in Latin America & Hezbollah, Tehran’s proxy in Lebanon is using Caracas to help fund its militias by trafficking in drugs.

Beijing, meanwhile, is benefiting from cheap oil – by some estimates, China is buying upwards of 80% of the country’s surplus oil production. Likewise, Russia’s oil companies – chiefly Rosneft – have invested heavily in Venezuela.

Combined, they have a lot to lose. How they lose it, remains to be seen. But for now, fairly or not, Trump holds leverage over each of them.

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EUROPE

Europe is spinning too as a result of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela. Tomorrow, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to meet with dozens of European leaders in Paris to tie down post-war security guarantees in the event of a – unlikely, in our opinion – peace settlement with Putin.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are also scheduled to attend.

Yet collective security guarantees are only as good as the unity of those aiming to give them. Right now, Denmark, among other European countries, are wondering in light of Trump’s Greenland comments whether they can trust the U.S.

Frederiksen pushed this very point to the top of the page today. She warned, that “If the United States decides to attack another NATO country, then everything would stop — that includes NATO and therefore post-World War II security.”

Trump needs to tamp this down. He knows the U.S. is not going to invade Greenland. Pushing that narrative, therefore, is self-defeating if he wants to reach a comprehensive peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

Instead of letting the dominoes tumble onto our allies, let them fall squarely on Putin. Between Iran & Venezuela, the Russian dictator is on the verge of losing two key allies propping up his war machine.

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MIDDLE EAST

Denmark notwithstanding, undoubtedly, the hardest hit in the aftermath of the Delta Force capture of Maduro is Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His regime was already under immense pressure by street protests over an unraveling Iranian economy.

Photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP. Khamenei.

As we noted Friday, inflation is at 42.%. The rial – Iran’s currency – lost half its value to the U.S. dollar in 2025. Plus, prices have increased a whopping 52% on average over the course of the last year.

Now, Khamenei has something else to think about. His personal security. If Trump was willing to capture Maduro, he is likely now willing to do the same to Khamenei.

Washington appears to be signaling just that. Trump had already warned Khamenei directly that if Iran – especially the Basij – its internal security militia – begins shooting or harming “peaceful protestors,” the U.S. will “come to their rescue.”

How the U.S. would do that likely just changed. Given the positioning of U.S. military assets in the Caribbean, regime change targets could be much higher on the Pentagon’s list than Khamenei previously estimated.

That’s certainly the message that the State Department’s official Farsi account is sending to Tehran. Multiple ones have been blunt warnings.

Earlier today, the account reposted Trump’s response to a question about the U.S. having “a somewhat contradictory history of toppling dictators.”

His answer?

“Not with me, not at all... With me, we’ve had a completely flawless record of victories... If you look at Soleimani, if you look at al-Baghdadi... We’ve only had victories so far.”

Qasem Soleimani was the leader of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) until he was killed by the U.S. on January 3^rd, 2020 – literally 6 years prior to the U.S. operation to arrest Maduro.

Dates mean a lot in the Mideast. Khamenei, undoubtedly, got the message. Trump was sending him.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was the founder and leader of ISIS. During a Delta Force operation to capture or kill him, he detonated a bomb killing himself.

Solve Iran & you solve much of the Mideast. Hamas withers. Ditto the Houthis. Likely Hezbollah as well.

Plus, of course, millions of Iranians would be freed from living under a cruel & evil dictatorship that for far too long has prioritized fighting Israel directly & via violent proxies as opposed to ensuring their most basic needs are met.

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AFRICA

In Madagascar is where we find our most underreported story of the day. Putin is not giving up in his war against the West.

Euromaidan Press is reporting that Major General Andrey Vladimirovich Averyanov – he assumed control of the Wagner Group after Yevgeny Prigozhin was likely murdered by Putin in a plane crash on August 23^rd, 2023 – is directly coordinating & supplying arms & training to Madagascar’s ruling junta.

His task is likely twofold. Expand Russia’s operations to destabilize pro-Western governments in southern Africa & to threaten the Mozambique Channel – a key commercial & naval transit alternative to the Suez Canal.

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INDO-PACIFIC

Beijing also has a tumbling domino to think about now as well. This is the second time Trump has decided to act with military force. First, by striking Iran’s nuclear facilities in Esfahan, Fordo & Natanz last June – Operation Midnight Hammer -- & then by capturing Maduro.

In both cases, the U.S. military performed flawlessly. The Pentagon’s ability to pull off complex multi-domain operations is something Xi will have to take into consideration as he gets closer & closer to potentially militarily attempting to retake Taiwan.

It is one thing to surround Taiwan unopposed, as he has done repeatedly over the past several years, including last week’s “Justice Mission 2025.” It is quite another doing so if the U.S. actively intervened militarily.

Maduro’s capture won’t end Xi’s designs on Taiwan. But it could delay them. Or it could also cause Xi to act now while the U.S. is stretched in the Caribbean & potentially in Iran as well if Trump orders an intervention in support of the Iranian protesters.

Washington must be prepared for either scenario.

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PROGRAMMING NOTE!

Tomorrow, after a holiday break, we resume our War & Politics show on YouTube that is also re-broadcast on Kanal 24 in Ukraine. It is being rebranded as The Intelligence Report with Sweet & Toth. It should be available for viewing tomorrow by 1PM ET.

You can also catch Mark tomorrow at 10:30AM ET on Q News in Cairo & again at 12:10PM ET on TVP World in Warsaw.

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Thanks for reading! We will see you Tuesday. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.