INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.10.2026: IRANIAN NEGOTIATIONS: “WANT IT BAD, GET IT BAD.”
June 10th, 2026
Greetings!
The only person who believes that a ceasefire is still in effect, and that negotiations with Iran are going well, resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue – President Donald Trump and the negotiation team of Witkoff & Kushner.
Photo Credit: AP. IRGC Leader Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi
As the saying goes, ‘want it bad, get it bad,” and Iran – more appropriately the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under the leadership of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi – is giving it to Trump ‘bad.’
The President’s response to Iran’s latest actions – the downing of an AH-64 helicopter – was to cry wolf again, but Vahidi broke Trump’s code on “The Art of the Deal” weeks ago. He’ll take self- defensive strikes and proportional responses all day.
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IN PURSUIT OF THE ELUSIVE DEAL
Let’s be honest here – the President has been more interested in making a deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran than winning the war he started.
Nowhere was that more evident than day 38 of Operation Epic Fury when the President took his foot off the gas to begin negotiations with Iran for a cease fire – on April 8th. This has since evolved into ‘Trump’s Forever Ceasefire.’ We are now on day 63.
Photo Credit: The Coolist. Analysis of Sigmund Freud’s tripartite model of id
It’s classic Sigmund Freud Id versus Ego. An internal conflict between ‘Trump the Business Man’ and ‘Trump the Commander in Chief.’ He defaults to what he knows best – business. As Monty Hall would say, “Let’s make the deal.”
Arguably, what began as a quick strike on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound in Tehran to facilitate regime change evolved into a 38 day campaign.
On the evening of the strike, Trump encouraged the Iranian people, telling them that “the hour of your freedom is at hand … take over your government.”
Two weeks later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his goal was to “to create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow this terrible tyrannical regime,” telling Iranians “Its up to you.”
Iran buckled, but didn’t break. In the absence of a Supreme Leader, the IRGC – the regime’s center of gravity – rose to the occasion and assumed the reins of leadership. New faces – but the same ideology and hatred towards Israel and the U.S.
And while the ‘new’ regime worked to get their feet underneath them, the Basij paramilitary kept the Iranian people in check.
Regime change evolved into military objectives – and U.S. Central Command, under the leadership of Adm. Brad Cooper, went to work.
As we stated in the May 15th edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report:
On March 2nd, the President stated, “Our objectives are clear. First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities … Second, we’re annihilating their navy… Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon… And finally, we’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”
Missing from the list of military objectives – the IRGC, the Basij paramilitary, drones, speedboats, and … control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The second and third order effects – Iran’s strength, asymmetric warfare.
On day 38, he went into deal making mode, playing into Iran’s other strength – negotiations. Only whoever Witkoff & Kushner are negotiating with are not on the same sheet of music as Vahidi – either by design or by internal conflict between the IRGC and the country’s elected officials.
As we stated in The Hill in late May, “As a result, the White House is in a perpetual reaction mode. In military terms, this means Vahidi retains the initiative.”
The President is chasing a deal – playing for a tie – that will never come to fruition. There is not a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Iran has stated unequivocally that they will not reliquish their enriched uranium program, nor concede control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Both hard ‘Red lines’ for President Trump.
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THE CURRENT SITUATION
For over 60 days now the President has told the American people that the two sides – Iran and the U.S. – were close to a deal. That a deal was “right around the corner.” According to CNN – 38 times.
It was not – which ultimately led to this evening.
And yet ‘the dance’ continued.
Despite Iran launching ballistic missiles and drones towards American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain that wounded five Americans – including defense contractors and service members – and shooting down an AH-64 Apache helicopter near the coast of Oman with a drone.
Despite Iranian proxies continuing to attack Israel.
The President still believes he has a deal on the table ready for signature – but by whom? Not the only Iranian that matters – Vahidi.
CENTCOMstated they conducted self-defense strikes in response to Iranian reprisal attacks earlier in the day against Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites across Iran this evening – targets that posed a threat to U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters.
Last night’s strikes – also described as self-defense strikes – targeted Iranian air defense sites, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in response to the downing of the AH-64.
None of the strikes contributed to securing the Strait of Hormuz or toppling the regime.
The President told Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst this evening that the bombing – 49 Tomahawk missiles – will stop shortly, but that if they don’t sign the agreement, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them.”
Trump also told Yingst that he spoke directly with top Iranian officials this evening, who he says called to get him to stop bombing.
And that continues to be the problem – the President is bombing to get a deal, he should be attacking to defeat the IRGC and win. Winning solves most – if not all – of the problems Iran presents to their Gulf State neighbors, Israel and the U.S.
The only phone calls President Trump should be accepting from Iran are from one of two people – Vahidi, or Iran’s Hidden Iman, Supreme Leader Khamenei Junior, who may or may not be alive. The words the President needs to hear are, “Iran accepts your terms for unconditional surrender” – not “we’re ready to make a deal now.”
The ceasefire is over. Negotiations are over. Iran’s unconditional surrender must be the only acceptable outcome. The President needs to get back to the business of winning and tell Vahidi “you’re fired.”
Any ‘deal’ with Iran would leave the IRGC in power – and that is simply unacceptable.
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PROGRAMMING NOTE
In our weekly Thursday 7 A.M. column in The Hill in Washington, D.C., we argue that President Trump simply does not know how to win in Iran. Nor does he understand the asymmetric war that they are waging against him.
Hitting back is a good thing. However, unless the IRGC and the Basij are targeted in an attempt to topple the regime, a U.S. win in Iran will remain elusive.
You can read it here when it goes live.
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ICYMI #1
Early today, in our regular weekday foreign affairs column for The Washington Star, we penned a piece arguing that Ukraine is getting closer to liberating Crimea.
Photo credit: Code 9.2. The Chonhar bridge connecting Russian-occupied territory in southern Ukraine is seen from above.
You can read it here. It is not paywalled at our request.
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ICYMI #2
Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV in Cairo, Egypt. He fielded questions about whether or not the U.S. is upholding its regional security guarantees to Lebanon and the Gulf states in the wake of renewed hostilities with Iran.
Mark’s answer?
Until the war is over and Iran is defeated, those guarantees, while important, will remain secondary to Trump.
You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Iran (current leaders) will never surrender unconditionally. IMO.
We must go back to winning.
Now.
Not in 2 weeks.
The so-called 'deals' with Iran exist only in Taco’s dreams.