INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.15.2026
May 15th, 2026
Greetings and Happy Friday! We’ve managed to make it to another weekend.
Mark is taking a knee today, so you’ll have to bear with me and my more direct approach to analysis.
But what a week it was – direct exchanges between the U.S. Navy and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 9th Victory parade – courtesy of Ukrainian President Zelensky – and President Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing, China.
Cuba even managed to return to the fold as Mark described in yesterday’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report.
77 days into Operation Epic Fury – or whatever the the Pentagon calls it now – the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iranian leadership – led by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi – seems intent to have it stay that way.
Time has become the critical variable, with each side believing they can outlast the other. A test of political will, endurance and tolerance for economic pain.
But reopening the Strait is only one component of a much larger problem set presented by the regime’s center of gravity – the IRGC.
Trump says he is “not going to be much more patient” with with Iran, and that they should “make a deal.”
In a statement released by Iran, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei supposedly said Iran’s “courageous resistance” had made the country better prepared to confront the United States.
Let’s take a closer look.
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THE END STATE
Photo Credit: Foreign Policy in Focus. David Petraeus Finally Answers His Own Question.
“Tell me, how does this end” – that was the famous question then-Maj. Gen. David Petraeus posited to embedded Washington Post journalist Rick Atkinson (a future Pulitzer Prize winner and fellow East Carolina University graduate) back in early 2003 when he was commanding the 101st Airborne Division at the onset of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Meaning – what is the end state? And do our actions – the implementation of our Instruments National of Power – support it?
That question would follow him throughout his career as Commander, Multi-National Force-Iraq, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), and as Director, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
And now, 23 years later, that same question is just as relevant for Iran – “how does this all end?”
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HOW IT BEGAN
As Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz once wrote, “War is the continuation of politics by other means.”
From the White House’s perspective, the war began because Iran refused to surrender its enriched uranium and nuclear weapons program through diplomacy.
The military objectives stated at the onset of the war would tell a different story though.
On March 2nd, the President said, “Our objectives are clear. First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities and their capacity to produce brand new ones. Second, we’re annihilating their navy. Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon. And finally, we’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”
Since then, that message has been fairly consistent from the Trump Administration, with some clarifying statements for emphasis:
Eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten Americans;
Ensure the Iranian terrorist regime does not build a nuclear bomb;
Eliminate the threat of Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles and the threat posed by their navy;
Dismantle Iran’s ability to project power outside of its borders;
Ensure the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the free world and attack our armed forces;
Ensure Iran cannot rapidly rebuild or reconstitute its combat capability; and
Destroy missiles, launchers, and Iran’s defense industrial base so they cannot rebuild, destroy their navy, and Iran never gets a nuclear weapon
Missing from the list of military objectives – the IRGC, the Basij paramilitary, drones, speedboats, and … control of the Strait of Hormuz. The second and third order effects.
But ultimately what was missing was the political objective – what was the endstate when Adm. Brad Cooper achieved his assigned military objectives?
Or as Petraeus asked, “How does this end?”
Spoiler alert: it wasn’t a ceasefire on day 38 of Operation Epic Fury.
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REGIME CHANGE
Its hard to believe anything other than regime change was the political objective.
The opening strike by the Israeli Air Force took out Iran’s Supreme Leader – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – and over 30 senior Iranian regime leaders and military officers.
That evening President Trump was encouraging the Iranian people that “the hour of your freedom is at hand … take over your government.” Two weeks later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his goal was to “to create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow this terrible tyrannical regime.” Telling Iranian citizens “Its up to you.”
That sounds like regime change to me.
And while many of the principle leaders of the regime have since been killed – regime change has not taken place. The deck chairs on Iran’s Titanic have simply been rearranged – it’s the same regime, the same ideology, and same hate for the U.S. and Israel.
Photo Credit: Eric Kayne/Stars and Stripes. Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, testifies during a Senate Armed Services committee hearing on Thursday, May 14, 2026, in Washington.
And while Adm. Cooper’s testimony before the Senate Committee on Armed Services yesterday was exceptionally informative, detailing how CENTCOM has met all of their assigned military objectives – the IRGC controls the government, threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz with mines, swarms of speed boats and drones, strikes neighboring countries with ballistic missiles, targets U.S. Navy ships and refuses to submit to Trump’s demands to abandon enrichment of uranium and pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
Then to rub salt in the wound, they provided the White House a 14-point counter proposal that “include[s] a demand to resolve all issues and end the war within 30 days … guarantees against future military aggression, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iran’s periphery, an end to the naval blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets, payment of reparations, the lifting of sanctions, an end to fighting in Lebanon, and a new mechanism governing the Strait of Hormuz.”
No mention of enriched uranium, nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, drones, or support to proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels, & Shi’a militias. Just a middle finger raised and oriented towards the White House.
A challenge – make me. Vahidi has broken the code to the “Art of the Deal.”
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THEY SHOULD MAKE A DEAL
The President still wants to make a deal with Iran though – not defeat them.
He told us that the ceasefire was on “life support” after Tehran’s latest offer didn’t include nuclear concessions, and that he was set to meet with his top military commanders to discuss next steps. That was Monday.
He wants a deal that reopens the Strait and provides guarantees that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon.
But any deal would leave the IRGC in power – and that is going to be a problem for Israel, the countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and Iranian citizens for decades to come. Adm. Cooper’s testimony to the SASC won’t be enough to guarantee their national security interests – or the individual freedoms of Iranian civilians, as the Basij paramilitary forces will likely seek out and punish those who opposed the regime.
This is bigger than a U.S.-Iran ceasefire or peace deal.
As former-U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said, “Iranian hegemony in the region is entirely unacceptable to Gulf Arab states, and should be unacceptable in Washington. Trump’s way out of his self-constructed trap is very clear.“
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“IT’S ALL ABOUT THAT BASE [IRGC]”
The only long term solution to the problem is removing the IRGC from power.
As Mark and I reasoned in our 1 May INTREP360 Intelligence Report:
Remove the regime — not just the latest round of actors in Iran’s version of musical chairs — and you remove all the issues the Trump Administration and Israel went to war over.
The IRGC is the immortal head of the hydra. Enriched uranium, nuclear weapons program, ballistic missile and drone programs, support to regional proxies, brutal suppression of Iranian citizens by their Basij paramilitary, threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and threats to Gulf Nation states, Israel and the U.S. — are the other heads.
Attack and defeat the source — and the remaining heads will wither on the vine.
The President’s guidance to Adm. Brad Cooper should be two fold: defeat the IRGC and secure the strait.
This ends when the IRGC has been removed from power and the Persian people can reclaim their country.
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PROGRAMMING NOTE
Tomorrow –– meaning Saturday –– Mark will be appearing on the Main Edition of TVP World News Tonight at 1:20 PM ET or 20:20 CET.
He is scheduled to talk about the U.S. troop withdrawals from Europe & changes to rotating troop deployments to Poland. He is also booked to talk about the latest on the war in Ukraine & potential peace efforts.
You can live stream here. The segment will be in English.
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ICYMI
Earlier today, Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt. He discussed the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit alongside a panelist who is a political economist in Beijing.
Surprisingly, both he & Mark were largely in agreement re: no major announcements & no backing down over Taiwan or Iran –– and that Trump’s state visit was more about building frameworks for future U.S.-Chinese bilateral relations.
You can watch the full episode here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.