INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.21.2026: THE LAST DANCE?
May 21st, 2026
Greetings!
Please forgive today’s somewhat abbreviated edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report. Jon was traveling by air most of the day to see family. Unless war resumes with Iran, for the first time since we started INTREP360, we are taking a couple of days off.
AI image credit: Grok. AI generated image of President Donald Trump facing off with IRGC Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi.
Both of our fathers were combat U.S. Army veterans — Mark’s father served in the Army Air Corps during World War II; Jon’s dad was an Army intel officer in Vietnam — and we each were taught early on that this is a solemn holiday.
We will be back Tuesday. Until then, we are going to let the stories of our fellow Americans who gave all for our country during wartime take center stage.
Meanwhile, Iran looms.
Let’s get started breaking down today’s latest news on the ‘forever cease-fire’ negotiations as we put it in The Hill this morning.
***
IRAN’S DANCE WITH TRUMP CONTINUES
Reuters reported today that according to two senior Iranian sources, Iran’s Supreme Leader – Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei – issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad.
One of the two sources added that, “The Supreme Leader’s directive, and the consensus within the establishment, is that the stockpile of enriched uranium should not leave the country.”
The announcement further frustrates the White House’s pursuit of a peace deal. It shouldn’t come as a surprise though.
But the White House, and clearly a different “senior Iranian official,” have since pushed back on the report, but it is consistent with Iran’s previous position – thus reinforcing Trump’s “seriously fractured” Iranian government theory.
Team Trump’s negotiation team is negotiating and making deals with Iranian officials who don’t have the authorities to make deals, and therefore, spinning their wheels, just like Iran wants them too.
The directive likely came from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander (IRGC) Maj. Gen. Ahmed Vahidi – the de facto leader of the Isalmic Republic of Iran. To date, there has been no ‘proof to life’ concerning Khamenei Junior – Iran’s second ‘hidden Imam.’
He has cracked the Trump code.
***
THE DANCE
We described the Iranian tactic in Wednesday’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report and again today in our opinion column in The Hill simply as ‘the dance.’
Iran said it was reviewing Washington’s latest position on ending the war – and Washington waits.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s latest comments seem to validate our dance theory: “Negotiations with Iran have made some progress ... there are some good signs. I don’t want to be overly optimistic. Lets see what happens in the next few days.”
The next few days? Really?
And then the President’s own comments. In what Fox News described as one of Trump’s harshest warnings to Iran yet, Trump told reporters this afternoon “We’re going to either make sure they don’t have a nuclear weapon or we’re going to have to do something very drastic.”
The President is determined to make some sort of deal – there is no art to it. He is on a ‘want it bad, get it bad’ trajectory, to the point of threatening the alliance with Israel.
***
ISRAEL
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is losing patience with the U.S. after a reported tense phone call with Trump.
Netanyahu has argued that “a delay only benefits the Iranians” and advocates for a for a resumption of military action.
The Prime Ministar has been pretty clear, he will not consider the war over until enriched uranium is removed from Iran, Tehran ends its support for proxy militias – Hamas, Hezbollah, Houti rebels and Shi’a militias – and its ballistic missile capabilities are eliminated.
Any deal made with Iran that leaves the IRGC in power would be a problem for Israel – one they may be inclined to resolve on their own.
Retired Gen. Jack Keane explained why today on Fox News, warning that a new deal would leave Iran bruised but intact, convincing the regime that they forced the U.S. to back down.
Keane explained that as a result, “we extend a lifeline to the regime, for sure, for them to do what? To recover. And in the deal, the unfrozen assets are about 100 billion. It’s likely we’re going to take some part of that and give that to them up front and also reduce some of the sanctions … It is a lifeline to the regime that extends them for years to come.”
***
THE IRANIAN PEOPLE
A peace deal must be more than just about enriched uranium, nuclear weapons, and the reopening of the strait – those are Trump conditions.
In addition to providing an enduring security threat to Israel and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a unilateral peace deal between the U.S. and an IRGC-led Islamic Republic of Iran fails the Iranian people.
Both Trump and Netanyahu made it a point to tell the Iranian people that they were setting conditions for them to “take back their country.”
Basij paramilitary forces will make quick work of identifying and punishing those who protested against the regime.
As Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi so succinctly put it, “The Iranian people did not sacrifice 40,000 lives just to end up with another nuclear deal.”
***
Memorial Day weekend this year has a lot riding on it.
The world anxiously waits in anticipation.
***
ICYMI #1
Today, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM ET national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we dove into the latest round of Trump’s ‘forever cease-fire’ in Iran. If former President Ronald Reagan were still alive, he’d likely be telling Trump, ‘There you go again!’
Photo credit: Vahid Salemi / AP. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander in Chief Ahmad Vahidi in 2024, when he was serving as Iran’s interior minister.
You can read it here.
***
ICYMI #2
Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News TV in Cairo, Egypt. He discussed the prospects for a peace deal & potential U.S. & Israeli target sets if Team Trump & Team Iran fail to reach an agreement.
Mark was skeptical a deal could be reached, despite early morning reports suggesting the two sides were close. His fellow guest panelist agreed.
As to targets?
Mark said it would likely be a combination of air strikes targeting remaining drones, ballistic & cruise missiles, launchers as well as command & control — especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps & the Basij, the regime’s paramilitary force. Israel would likely be in the lead with respect to the latter.
Plus, either concurrently or on a phased-in basis, Mark wouldn’t be surprised if the U.S. began conducting raids to secure key terrain in and around the Strait of Hormuz to cover U.S. naval assets securing safe maritime routes.
You can watch it here.
***
Thank you for reading. We will see you next Tuesday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Happy Memorial Day & God bless every American serviceperson & their families who gave everything in defense of liberty & our country.
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.