INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.06.2026
February 6th, 2026
Greetings! The XXV Winter Olympics opened in Milano Cortina today & the Super Bowl awaits on Sunday.
Photo credit: AFP. Ukrainian athletes parade during the opening ceremony of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games on Friday.
Sadly, the war in Ukraine won’t stop in the spirit of Olympic Solidarity. Instead––as we write this––Russia is yet again hitting Ukraine with a massive ballistic missile & drone attack. Their targets? Ukrainian civilians as usual.
Nonetheless, five Ukrainians are in Milano Cortina competing & reminding the world that while Putin is killing Ukrainian men, women & children, he can’t kill––nor will he ever––the spirit of Ukrainians as a people.
Elsewhere in the world, the U.S. build-up continues in the Middle East. President Donald Trump once again claims Iran wants a deal.
We doubt that. All Iran wants is a delay.
Ukraine—likely—took its war to Moscow. And Beijing is increasingly angry at the Trump administration.
Let’s get started covering that & more.
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NORTH AMERICA
Greenland is the story that won’t go away. Canada & France announced the opening of new consulates in the Danish territory.
Photo credit: Getty. Greenland protest.
Up until now, only Iceland & the U.S. maintained diplomatic facilities in Greenland. Canada in 2024 announced its intentions to open an office in Nuuk.
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SOUTH AMERICA
The Empire is striking back against Panama after its Supreme Court nullified Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings agreement to operate two strategic ports on the Pacific & Caribbean sides of the Panama Canal.
Beijing—reportedly—has ordered Chinese companies to cease any negotiations over new deals in Panama. Bloomberg News reported that it could cost Panama “billions of dollars” of new development.
It’s now Team Trump’s move. Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy called for increasing U.S. investment in Latin America. Now—because of U.S. pressure to terminate Chinese contracts in the canal zone—Panama is going to need it.
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EUROPE
Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev—the deputy head of the Russian military intelligence agency (G.R.U.)—was shot today in Moscow. The timing of the attempted assassination—his condition remains unknown—was significant.
Photo credit: Russian Defense Ministry. Russian Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev.
Igor Kostyukov—the head of the G.R.U. & Alekseyev’s boss—was in Abu Dhabi negotiating with the U.S. & Ukraine. Sergey Lavrov––Russia’s foreign minister––accused Ukraine of trying to murder Alekseyev in order to “disrupt the negotiation process.”
Lavrov—while we do not know—was likely not wrong. Alekseyev is a legitimate target of war & Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky & his generals—especially Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, now the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine—were sending Russian President Vladimir Putin & his negotiating team a message.
Ukraine is not going to capitulate. Nor is Kyiv going to cede any of the Donbas—including its key defensive belts—to Moscow as part of a peace deal.
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MIDDLE EAST
The Wall Street Journal article on February 2nd written by their Editorial Board entitled “The ‘Deal’ in Iran Is Regime Change” hits the nail on the head.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & his regime cannot be allowed to remain in power. Doing so would destabilize & continue to threaten the region for decades. The ‘deal’ must be regime change—either as an orderly negotiated departure into exile, or a violent removal from power.
Tehran has repeatedly stated Iran will not stop its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Nor will they stop funding their proxies throughout the Middle East—Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi rebels. And Khamenei is insisting that Iran will continue to develop its ballistic missile program—a launching system capable of carrying a nuclear payload.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues violently suppressing Iranian protesters throughout the country. Plus, executions continue despite assurances to Trump that they would stop.
Khamenei’s navy launched an armed drone towards the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. Then—on Wednesday—Tehran seized two foreign oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz promising to make the narrow passage a “massacre and hell” for the U.S. Navy.
It is increasingly clear to us that Khamenei believes he can survive any U.S. military strike. Essentially, he is calling Team Trump’s bluff.
Today’s negotiations in Oman were proof enough of that. Iran continues to claim they were only about Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. Yet again, Khamenei & Abbas Araghchi are playing Uncle Sam for fools. They are—like Putin before them—simply tapping Trump out.
That begs these questions: Is the White House willing to pull the trigger after amassing a sizable military armada in the region? Will they continue to permit Iran to dismiss—blow off—their demands?
American military ‘shows of force’ tend to be hollow––and costly. The Iranian regime’s will to survive is—seemingly—greater than Team Trump’s will to remove it. Much like Putin and his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, loss of life is not part of the cost calculation for Khamenei & his regime thugs.
Eventually, the White House will have to come to a decision. When they do, taking a knee to Iran cannot be the outcome.
As retired U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane told Brian Kilmeade this morning on Fox News, “Negotiating with Iran and making a deal throws them a lifeline and extends the regime. The historic opportunity in front of us is that we can take this regime down.”
Keane continued saying, “That is absolutely physically possible … The strategic implications of getting Iran off the board in the Middle East and putting the Middle East on a pathway to enduring peace … would be extraordinary.”
Yet Steve Witkoff—seemingly—was standing in the way of that in Muscat, Oman. Today’s outcome? More of the same, the U.S. & Iran agreed to hold follow-on discussions after consultations with their capitals.
Meeting to simply set future meetings is never a good thing. Not in business—and certainly not in matters of war & peace when your enemy has no intention of standing down.
While Trump boldly states that Khamenei “should be very worried,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is signaling that he isn’t by declaring, “We engage in good faith and stand firm on our rights.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times is reporting that Iran is rebuilding its ballistic missile & nuclear sites hit by Israel & the U.S. last June during the 12-day war. Khamenei didn’t stop pursuing nukes then just like he didn’t stop during the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action just like he won’t stop in the future even if Tehran signs a “deal” with Trump.
Enough of Iran’s games. There can be no middle ground. The time is now & Khamenei’s regime is at its weakest.
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AFRICA
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced today that Zubayr al-Bakoush—a Libyan militia leader wanted for the killing of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens in 2012 & Sean Smith—was in U.S. custody. He was charged during a hearing with murder.
Photo credit: FBI. Al-Bakoush–center, in handcuffs––under arrest.
The U.S. still does not maintain an embassy in Libya. There was no word on how or where al-Bakoush was detained & brought to the U.S.
Thus far, he is the third person charged with the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. Ahmed Abu Khattala was captured in 2014. Mustafa al-Imam was caught in 2017. Both men were charged & convicted.
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INDO-PACIFIC
The Trump administration—earlier today—accused China of conducting secret nuclear tests in a violation of an agreement prohibiting them. Thomas DiNanno, a State Department official for arms control & international security made the charge in Geneva, Switzerland.
The timing of China’s nuclear test—just as the New START Treaty was expiring—was obviously intended as a message to Trump. Chinese President Xi Jinping is adamant about catching up with the U.S. & Russia.
Photo credit: Maxim Shemetov / Reuters. Chinese DF-31BJ nuclear missiles on display during China’s 80th anniversary parade marking the end of World War II.
As we detailed here earlier this week, Beijing is aiming to deploy 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Best estimates now are China has deployed 100 but it could be more.
Nuclear arms agreements are a good thing. Especially when it comes to verification and hard caps on warheads & launcher systems.
However, the New START Treaty was outdated. As DiNanno rightly noted, the accord “didn’t cover Russian short-range nuclear weapons, [nor] new types of Russian nuclear weapons such as Moscow’s nuclear-armed torpedo, or Chinese forces.”
That said—realistically—it is unlikely a new nuclear arms agreement will be reached anytime soon. For now, & into the foreseeable future, it is a 1960s-1980s style nuclear arms race.
Need perspective? In 1967, the U.S. peaked at 31,000 warheads. By 1987, the Soviet Union had 40,000. Today? The U.S. has 5,177 & Russia 5,459––and it is believed that China has 600 nuclear warheads in total.
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Meanwhile, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te stressed today that Taipei’s relationship with the U.S. is “rock solid” after Xi warned Trump during a telephone call to be “prudent” over his handling of the contested Chinese province.
Photo credit: Taiwan Presidential Office. President Lai Ching-te speaking in an undated photo amidst a backdrop of Taiwanese & U.S. flags.
The call came on the heels of Washington’s December announcement that it had approved an $11.1 billion arms package—the largest-ever—to Taiwan. Trump described his call with Xi as “excellent” & noted that it was “long and thorough.”
Nonetheless, according to a report in the Financial Times, Beijing warned Trump that the arms deal could threaten his visit to China in April.
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Elsewhere in the region, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese & Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto signed the Australia-Indonesia Treaty on Common Security in Jakarta, Indonesia earlier today. The pact—enacted alongside other agreements—provides for “the development of joint defense training facilities to increase Indonesia’s ability to conduct joint exercises with [its regional Indo-Pacific partners and Australia.]”
The agreement is significant given past friction between the two countries. A similar pact was terminated in 1999 after Australia participated in a peacekeeping mission in East Timor. Other friction points include drug smuggling & human trafficking.
It’s a fresh start. Time will tell if it deepens. Beijing—no doubt—is watching given that the security agreement is in response to increased Chinese aggression in the region.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.