INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.13.2026
March 13th, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 14 of the war in Iran. No, Virginia or Peter, it is not yet won. Wars take time. Enemies get votes.
Photo credit: Vice. Nuclear explosion.
That said, it is clear to us that Iran is—increasingly—getting desperate. Closing the Strait of Hormuz & attacking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf isn’t an escalation.
It is a last-ditch attempt at regime survival.
Iran’s initial war strategy is failing. Attacking Gulf States—especially Qatar, Saudi Arabia & the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—backfired.
Turning friends—even nominal ones—into enemies is a lousy way to try & win a war. Yes, it widened the war—as Iran hoped it would—but not to the intended goal of the Gulf States pressuring the U.S. to stop.
Consider where the regime is at right now. Iran has elected a leader—Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—who may already be dead, as we pondered out loud here earlier this week, or in a coma & not even aware that he is the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Thus far—aside from a purported written statement—Mojtaba is a no-show. That’s likely why—on International Quds Day, an annual rally in support of Palestinians—Iran’s remaining leaders made public appearances.
Ali Larijani—secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council & the de facto leader, in our view, of Iran—made an appearance at the event. Likewise Ahmad-Reza Radan—Iran’s chief of police—who was pictured walking the streets.
Even Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian & Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—besides both being effectively sidelined by Larijani—braved the crowds. Ditto Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i—the country’s chief justice—who is wanted by the U.S.
Photo credit: U.S. Department of State. Top ten wanted IRGC leaders.
Obviously—as a group—they felt they needed to be seen. The country is under daily U.S. & Israeli bombardment and—absent Mojtaba—they needed to reassure their supporters that they were still in charge.
Internally, that may have worked. Externally it was a sign that the regime’s surviving members are running out of military options given that they surrounded themselves with human shields so as to avoid being targeted by U.S. or Israeli loitering assets.
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Rally appearances & propaganda campaigns can only take you so far. There are only so many times Iranian TV can announce they’ve sunk the USS Abraham Lincoln. They tried that again today only for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to yet again deny it.
You need something else. Especially when you are desperate. Thus, Iran’s decision to begin laying mines & attacking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
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Today’s rally also had another signal—many in Washington, D.C., seemingly missed it—but we didn’t. Mohammad Eslami—the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran––also was at the rally.
Photo credit: Reuters. Mohammad Eslami, Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.
To understand why his presence was significant, it is important to understand this: The regime has long believed—especially under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—that its survival as a regime is wholly dependent on the survival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
That’s why Eslami is the guy we are most focused on—or rather, more to the point, we are focused on his chase to build nukes.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz isn’t just about regime survival. It is about the short- and long-term survival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. If you think gas prices are bad now. Consider what they would be if Iran—using the threat of nuclear weapons—could hold hostage future oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz.
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In time, others can—and must—debate whether or not Team Trump should have launched this war (and yes, in our view, it is a war). Ditto whether or not President Donald Trump should have first sought a declaration of war from Congress.
For us—however, as nonpartisan national security analysts in the here & now—the Iranian nuclear Pandora’s Box is now wide open. There is no going back unless Washington is willing to allow the Islamic Republic of Iran to build or acquire nuclear weapons.
This is no longer just about oil. It is about nukes. Eslami’s presence today screams that reality & Washington—Democrats, Republicans, & independents alike—needs to understand what is at stake here.
Eslami’s ‘silent scream’—in our view—was signaling it’s ‘damn the nuclear torpedoes & full speed ahead’ if & when he can.
Today, it is a mined Strait of Hormuz. Sometime in the future––symbolically speaking––it could be a radioactive Persian Gulf.
***
To understand Iran’s nuclear threat as it existed in June 2025, let’s circle back to the days leading up to the 12-Day War, when U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Tehran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.
Iran was indeed days—and dangerously so—away from nuclear breakout & had been for some time.
Here’s why it was so alarming: By June 2025 Iran had accumulated roughly 460 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. Reaching that 60% level already completes over 90% of the process to get to full weapons-grade 90% HEU.
Given Iran’s centrifuge capacity at the time, experts—including U.S. intelligence—estimated Iran could finish the final step & produce enough weapons-grade material for one bomb in about one week. They could have done it at any moment of their choosing. That’s why for years everyone kept hearing that Iran was ‘close’ to a nuclear bomb.
Mass is key too. That 460-kilogram stockpile contained enough fissile material for 10 to 11 nuclear bombs. Roughly 42 kilograms—the amount needed to sustain a chain reaction to result in a mushroom cloud—is what’s required for one nuke.
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Mass & enrichment—however—are not enough to fully weaponize a nuclear bomb. Iran—back then—also lacked a working detonation system. They also lacked the means to deliver it—either via an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or via a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Nonetheless, there was a very real concern that either Russia, North Korea, or perhaps even China might at any time provide these missing links. Especially as the Axis of Evil as an alliance gained steam as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
***
Fast-forward to June 2025. The net effect—as noted by Andrea Stricker, a nuclear weapons expert at the FDD—was to entomb Iran’s 460 kilograms of 60% HEU in Fordow & the tunnel storage sites in Isfahan. The U.S. strikes on Fordow, Isfahan & Natanz also likely destroyed or damaged much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity.
Nonetheless, there is concern that Iran is building—or has already completed—another uranium enrichment facility at Pickaxe Mountain. This facility is buried 330 feet under a mountain & is likely out of reach of the U.S.’ largest bombs including the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator more commonly known as the MOP bunker-buster (save––of course––our own nukes, which are not an option here).
There could—of course—be other unknown enrichment sites. Likewise, we do not know with certainty that Iran didn’t move some of its 60% HEU to other facilities—perhaps even to Pickaxe Mountain—prior to last June.
These HEU stockpiles are just the product. Destroying or seizing them is job one. But job two is completely destroying Iran’s manufacturing capacity to develop & build nuclear weapons any time soon.
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To accomplish the latter—and this is just a partial list of a very large target set to give you a sense of how big & time-consuming this task is—the U.S. & Israel also must destroy Iran’s capacity to manufacture centrifuges & the supply chains associated with it.
That includes destroying UF₆ feeding systems, collection cold traps, & cascade piping. Ditto destroying dedicated electrical substations, backup generators, & cooling systems for uranium enrichment.
Uranium conversion facilities, research facilities, & testing sites such as those at the Parchin military complex must also be destroyed––as well as the secret weapon-design labs run by Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation & Research (SPND) & any hidden uranium-metal casting facilities for turning HEU into actual bomb cores.
Likewise destroying any existing stockpiles of enriched uranium above 20% in any chemical form (e.g., UF₆, oxide, or metal). Ditto destroying secondary pathways to a nuke including the Arak Nuclear Complex that houses an experimental heavy water reactor.
We could go on, but that’s enough to paint the picture. There are hundreds of components of Iran’s nuclear weapons program that must be destroyed—and that doesn’t even include its ballistic missile production & research programs.
Washington can’t rush this. Failure here is not an option. Not unless Capitol Hill is willing to yet again give Iran a path to nuclear weapons.
Be assured that is exactly why Iran is weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz. They are hoping against hope that it will cause the U.S. & Israel to stop before its nuclear weapons program is truly obliterated for some time to come.
***
Trump—seemingly—gets it. Earlier this evening, in a Truth Social post, he reiterated that “Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon.”
That said, Trump often says one thing in the morning, another thing in the afternoon & something else late at night. He must stay the course in Iran. For better or worse, he opened Iran’s nuclear Pandora’s Box & now he must finish the job & close it for good.
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Thank you for reading! Jon will see you Monday & Tuesday as Mark will be caring for his brother who is having knee replacement surgery. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
This regime of criminals parades around with, and entertains criminals in Our Oval Office (where he has no legal right to be) who are on the international most wanted list! They have released more criminals than they’ve arrested. Yet this kakistocratic cabinet that has committed murder with impunity around the world now thinks they have the right to demand other criminals surrender to them for arrest! These people just can’t help wear their entitlement on full display for the world to be disgusted by! This regime, their billionaire Epstein class, their base of traitors, supporters, and enablers! They have to repay the American People with interest! We are owed for our losses, trauma, as are the others who may look to the American people for recovery.