INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.10.2026
March 10th, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 11 of the war in Iran. Today—in Washington—the focus was on the growing cost of the war & whether or not ground troops might be required. The first two days alone cost $5.6 billion.
Plus—as Mark noted on TVP World in Warsaw, Poland & Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt—it is clear that global oil prices are a potential Team Trump’s Achilles’ Heel in the making. Not just in terms of the Gulf States & their continued support, but also in how it may factor into the upcoming November midterms.
That said—for tonight, at least—we find ourselves thinking about the curious case of Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei.
Photo credit: Associated Press. A regime supporter holds up a photograph of Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran.
It’s been 72 hours since he was announced as the new Supreme Leader of Iran succeeding his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & yet he’s failed to make any appearance in person or made any TV broadcast. Nor has he done a radio address to the people of Iran.
For now, all we have are regime-produced artificial intelligence (AI) videos of him that are circulating on social media.
The question is: why is that the case?
One likely explanation—and it is being heavily pushed on Iranian state TV—is that he was wounded in the attacks that killed his father & wife. He is being referred to as “Jaanbaz,” which in Farsi means a wounded war veteran.
More specifically, talking heads on Iranian state TV are describing him as a Jaanbaz of the “Ramadan War.” Reportedly—according to U.S. & Israeli officials—he was wounded in the attack & suffered unspecified injuries to his legs.
IRIB, Mehr News & Tasnim—repeatedly—keep pushing this narrative on a 24-hour repeating news cycle.
Maybe he is wounded. Maybe he is not.
What if—and we are just speculating here—he is already dead? Could we be witnessing an Iranian AI version of the 1989 dark comedy directed by Ted Kotcheff & starring Andrew McCarthy, “Weekend at Bernie’s”?
Let’s get started considering that possibility!
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As we begin—to be fully transparent given the speculative nature of this special edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report—it is our opinion that Mojtaba Khamenei is likely still alive. That said, we can’t fully discount that he could be dead.
If he is dead—and that’s still a big if—then why this charade?
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Unlike the dead “Bernie” in the 1989 movie, Mojtaba—for now—has essentially been a ghost since the February 28thattack. Israeli sources suggest he is still alive. Nonetheless—they, like us—have no proof of life.
Photo credit: Majid Asgaripour / West Asia News Agency. Picture of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei being broadcast on Iranian TV.
If he is wounded, we get it. The regime doesn’t want to show a wounded leader—especially if he’s gravely injured—to the public.
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If Mojtaba died immediately or soon thereafter might the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—desperate for a rallying symbol that would be accepted by the Iranian people & the Basij—have resurrected him?
Given that the IRGC clearly sees this as an existential fight between Iran and the U.S. & Israel, might the thinking be to keep the Khamenei name alive as a wartime figurehead? Essentially a living corpse intended to buy them—at least temporarily—continuity of government, legitimacy and, most importantly of all, time?
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If so, who is the man—or in movie terms, the Wizard of Oz—standing behind the curtain? In our view, it can only be one person: Ali Larijani. He was essentially anointed by Mojtaba’s father to be the transitional leader in the event of his death.
Photo credit: Tasnim. Ali Larijani, the head of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran in an updated photograph.
Larijani—certainly, as the influential & powerful head of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran—is the most likely Wizard of Iran if this scenario is indeed playing out in real life in Tehran.
To date—acting as the de facto wartime leader—Larijani has been the most vocal surviving Iranian leader on X. On a daily basis since February 28th, he has been issuing direct threats to President Donald Trump.
He also posted an illustration—signaling his support of Mojtaba—that depicts the now dead Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei handing off the state flag of Iran to his son symbolizing the transfer of power.
Photo credit: Khamenei.ir. Illustration depicting the former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei handing off the state flag of Iran to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Larijani’s hypervisibility—including daily state TV briefings, X posts, & rallying cries—stands in marked contrast to Mojtaba’s invisibility act. While Larijani is steering the Iranian ship of state, Mojtaba remains silent.
Silence—especially during wartime—is not exactly the sign of a great leader whose country is under attack by a global superpower. Iran—clearly—is in an all-out war for regime survival. It really is an all-hands-on-deck moment.
Yet Mojtaba—at least for now—is missing in action.
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So how would Larijani & the IRGC pull this off? First off by keeping Mojtaba—or his body—away from the 88 clerics who elected him Iran’s next Supreme Leader last week during the Assembly of Experts.
Doing so—and justifying it—would be easy enough. As is—or so it would go—the U.S. nearly killed Mojtaba, so for maximum state security, the IRGC is preventing anyone from visiting or seeing him.
Under the guise of security, Larijani could be hiding behind the pretense that no one sees the “Rahbar”—meaning Supreme Leader in Farsi—except a small cadre of men conveniently led by him.
Neither do those—dead or alive—locked behind closed doors in some undisclosed location somewhere in Iran.
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Significantly, Larijani—as best we can see—has yet to speak for Mojtaba. Instead, he speaks as if he is running the country himself.
That could be by design. Or it could be that to cover up Mojtaba’s death—again, if he is dead—he doesn’t want to say anything that the 88 clerics who make up the Assembly of Experts would question & cause them to demand to see Mojtaba.
Equally notable is that Larijani is completely in sync with the IRGC unlike Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian & Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Frequently—especially over the last several days—both men have publicly attempted to restrain the IRGC from attacking the Gulf States to no avail.
That tells us all we need to know. Larijani—effectively—is likely in charge in Iran.
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Plus—if this is the case that Mojtaba is already dead—Larijani already has a built-in exit plan. When the war is over—assuming, of course, that the regime survives it—Larijani would simply announce that the Supreme Leader succumbed to the wounds he sustained in the martyrdom of his father.
The Assembly of Experts would be notified & a new vote taken while no one—save a select few—would be any the wiser.
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As we close out tonight’s edition, we want to reiterate that it is more likely than not that Mojtaba is still alive. He is likely just severely injured & locked down—most likely in an Iranian hospital—to prevent the U.S. or Israel from killing him.
That said, our purpose here in raising this speculation is intentional. We are challenging the Iranian regime—especially Larijani—to put up or shut up about Mojtaba.
If he is alive, prove it. If he isn’t, then that tells us that the regime is far weaker than they want anyone in Iran to realize to the extent they would be willing to hide behind the corpse—and name—of a dead man.
Dead men tell no tales. Or do they?
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ICYMI #1
Mark was on the Main Edition of TVP World’s Nightly News today to discuss the latest on the war in Iran & its implications on the war in Ukraine. You can watch it here.
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ICYMI #2
Mark was also on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today talking about the latest on the war in Iran. You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
IMO; The new leader is probably grieving the overwhelming loss of his family members!
Yes, he could be wounded or he could be doing the normal thing for someone who suffered losses must people would have trouble withstanding.
Facing unnecessary tragedies which tRump (hiding behind his stolen presidency) had no right to inflict on any Nation that has not shown aggression towards us!
We were comfortable, existing peacefully within the perimeters of nuclear agreements signed by President Obama!
Then along comes this treasonous kakistocratic regime, (desperate to stay out of prison) using their election tampering skills setting the stage for world destabilization!