INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.12.2026
March 12th, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 13 of the war in Iran. Many in Washington, D.C.—far too many, in our view—seem startled that the enemy gets a vote.
Iran—significantly weakened—gets a vote too & they are exercising it. Nearly two weeks into this war, their strategy is clear.
Fight back against the U.S. & the Gulf States using asymmetrical means—including mining the Strait of Hormuz, sinking oil tankers, attacking U.S. forces in Kuwait, & striking civilian targets—especially oil & energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar & the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Photo credit: Associated Press. An oil tanker burns following an Iranian attack near Basra, Iraq.
War is about adjusting.
You go to war with the military that you have. You adjust—as needed—based on how the enemy decides to fight back.
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We get it. Much of the handwringing on Capitol Hill is being driven by domestic politics—something we always intentionally avoid—and therefore isn’t reflective of the actual military realities on the ground.
Like Team Trump or hate them—and here at INTREP360, you are free to decide that for yourself—the U.S. military overall is doing what it does best: systematically destroying Iran’s military capabilities to fight back.
Doing so—however—takes time. Iran is a big country. Its regime is entrenched—and safeguarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) & the Basij.
Toppling those elements—if it can yet be done—was always going to first require a layered approach to destroying Iran’s military. Initially, that entailed decimating Iran’s air defenses. Ditto its navy to protect U.S. naval assets in the region.
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Simultaneously, it also necessitated destroying drone & ballistic missile launchers to mitigate Tehran’s ability to strike Israel & the Gulf States. Doing so—albeit with short-term pain & losses—is a war of attrition.
It is a war—to be very clear—that the U.S. & Israel are winning. Plus, the trendline keeps bending in their favor.
Based on estimated Iranian drone & missile fires, Iran’s ability to conduct strikes continues to plummet downward. Give or take––and please bear in mind––this is a constantly moving number––Iran’s ability to conduct launches is nearing nuisance value.
Chart credit: Sweet & Toth.
That doesn’t mean troops & civilians—tragically—won’t get killed or wounded. It also doesn’t mean that significant damage won’t yet happen.
However, that number is moving closer to zero & is even closer still when you consider there is a 90% interception rate of Iranian ballistic missiles & an 83% interception rate of Iranian Shahed drones.
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That’s why—in our view—Iran is now starting to actively mine the Strait of Hormuz & more aggressively target oil tankers bottlenecked on each side of the passage. Phase I of its defense is failing—meaning ballistic missile & drone strikes—and now out of desperation to save the regime, they are moving to Phase II.
Iran adjusted & so too will the U.S. & Israel. Meanwhile—as they do—we recommend ignoring the handwringing & Doomsaying coming out of Capitol Hill.
Yes—initially—Iran will gain an advantage. Oil prices will spike. Nonetheless—over time—it will likely diminish as the USAF & IDF respond.
Thus, it’s our assessment that Iran isn’t escalating as much as they are acting out of desperation. They get it—as we’ve stressed here the past week—that U.S. & Israeli air supremacy eventually will allow the targeting of the IRGC & Basij.
We are already beginning to witness that happening including the hitting of Basij checkpoints. Expect to see more of that in the days ahead as Washington & Jerusalem are freed up to reallocate more loitering assets—Predators, A-10 Warthogs & the like—to hit street level targets in support of Iranian protesters.
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Doing so is key. As we argued today in our weekly 7:00 AM ET Thursday national security column at The Hill, regime change can’t—and won’t—happen until the U.S. & Israel attack Iran’s center of gravity.
That means hitting the IRGC & the Basij.
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Please also remember that the U.S. & Israel are also fighting a strategic war at the same time including hitting Iran’s nuclear weapons program & manufacturing capabilities to build new ballistic missiles.
Tomorrow—in our Friday edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report—we will report in depth on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
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Meanwhile, as we can, we’d like to circle at least parts of the globe to identify other key stories impacting U.S. national security.
Eventually, we will return to our full sweeps. For now, given the wars in Ukraine & Iran, we do our best to highlight those stories from time to time.
Let’s get started doing just that!
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NORTH AMERICA
The war in Iran could find its way to California if Tehran—allegedly—has its way. ABC News reported yesterday that the FBI “warned police departments in California … that Iran could retaliate for American attacks by launching drones at the West Coast.”
“We recently acquired unverified information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United States homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event the U.S. conducted strikes against Iran. We have no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack.”
Not since November 1944—during World War II—when the Japanese launched balloon bombs towards the West Coast in retaliation for the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo in April, has California been an ‘at risk’ state.
Photo credit: United States Air Force. Balloon bomb exhibit.
It certainly got everyone’s attention.
Maybe the sinking of the Iranian destroyer Dena by an American torpedo off the coast of Sri Lanka last week wasn’t such a nefarious act after all. We have no way of knowing if they had a mission to conduct this attack—or even support it—but there can be no sanctuary for Iranian warships. They are armed and pose a threat.
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EUROPE
As we documented in our March 6th INTREP360 Intelligence Report, there is no love lost between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán & Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. And it is for good reason.
The theatrics of Orbán’s re-election campaign sunk to a new low yesterday when he filmed himself on the phone with his daughter. He told her:
“You probably see on the news that the Ukrainians are now threatening not only me but you too, your child and your mother. So, I’m just calling to let you know, so you don’t get scared. If something is wrong, or if you see something, let me know. But I think we need to take this seriously, but we must not be scared.”
The reality TV-like video—of course it would!—eventually found its way on X.
It was a move straight out of the Russian playbook. Orbán—somehow—has become a victim of the Russian war in Ukraine.
How convenient. Especially since his party—Fidesz—is trailing in the polls by 14% to Tisza, a center-right party led by Péter Magyar.
The election is less than one month away. Out of desperation, Orbán is resorting to a Russian-style disinformation campaign designed to get himself re-elected.
If it were a movie or TV series, Orbán’s “Tomatometer” rating on Rotten Tomatoes would likely have come in as “Rotten” thus earning an ignominious green splat.
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This next potential trigger event could take place on Sunday in Budapest––a Hungarian National Holiday––at the annual Peace March. László Csizmadia, President of the Civil Unity Forum and the Civil Unity Public Benefit Foundation (CÖF–CÖKA), said the event might attract unprecedented numbers of participants.
Csizmadia—a long-time political ally of Orbán—also warned that, “Hungary’s sovereignty faces both external [Ukraine] & internal challenges. Our message to those preparing to replace our legitimate government is clear: we will defend our prime minister and protect the independence of our country.”
Orbán will likely use the occasion to blame Ukraine for all the hardships he has levied upon his country in the past four years by pandering to Russian President Vladimir Putin in exchange for cheap energy.
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INDO-PACIFIC
As the world feels the pinch of oil prices fluctuating between $87-$120 a barrel, Iran is threatening to push the price up to $200 a barrel by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. That doesn’t bode well for anyone—especially China.
Chart credit: Center on Global Energy Policy. China’s top crude oil suppliers in 2025.
As the chart above depicts, more than 40% of China’s oil in 2025 came from countries in the Middle East.
An additional 22% of Beijing’s total oil imports—2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) came from sanctioned crudes—likely came from Iran (1.38 million bpd) & Venezuela (389,000 bpd). With the loss of Venezuelan crude as a result of Operation Absolute Resolve, China had planned to make up the shortfall with Iranian crude.
Operation Epic Fury disrupted that plan.
Between the three countries, that’s over 60% of China’s oil imports at risk thus putting China & its economy in unfamiliar territory.
Stay tuned. Team Trump’s oil squeeze on China & Chinese President Xi Jinping’s rare earth minerals squeeze on Team Trump is just getting started.
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ICYMI!
Today, we urged Team Trump to begin attacking Iran’s center of gravity in our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill.
Photo credit: Vahid Salemi / Associated Press. A member of Iran’s Basij paramilitary force in 2022.
You can read it here.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
It’s obvious this regime is used to doing things without assessing the full scope of possibilities before they decide to conduct any operation legal or otherwise!
Kegsbreath didn’t even evacuate our troops before their initial attack. Our military bases were basically sacrificed as they are sitting ducks in the region. Hearing stories about what they’ve done to those properties makes one wonder if now they’re telling America how they really feel about us being there? Or rather is this “All’s fair in Love and War’!
Leaders of this operation can’t help but give away pertinent mission critical info while they’re running their mouths!
Are they spouting these lies to appease their gullible dwindling base. All the while reveling in the illusion of mission success, superiority over Israel’s victims, and who’s actually in control of their war! They need to remove the four ‘tech bros’ they implanted into our military leadership, and realize this is not a video game!
We so appreciate you’s continuing to provide us with the opportunity to educate ourselves as we peek inside what’s actually going on!
Thank you for your continued service to Our Country!