INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.05.2026
May 5th, 2026
Greetings!
Is Russian President Vladimir Putin in the crosshairs?
Photo Credit: Alberto Mier/CNN/Getty Images. Unsettled Kremlin tightens security around Putin amid assassinations and coup fears.
Both CNN and the Financial Times reported on Monday that Russia’s Federal Protective Service (FSO) was concerned about the possibility of an assassination attempt by Ukraine against Putin or a military coup d’état led by former Russian Defense Minister and now Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu.
As a result, social media exploded with conspiracy theories.
The story is based upon a leaked report from an unnamed European intelligence agency equating enhanced security procedures surrounding Putin to a threat against his life.
One does not necessarily mean the other, but let’s take a closer look.
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FOR THE LOVE OF PUTIN
As we have stated on several occasions, no one loves Vladimir Putin more than Vladimir Putin, and he is not going to put himself in a situation that threatens his mortal existence on this earth.
But the Russian soldier? That’s a different story.
In December 2022, Newsweek reported that Putin said “99.9 percent of Russians would be willing to sacrifice their lives for the good of the country amid Moscow’s ongoing invasions of Ukraine.”
And he is prepared to let them. To date, 1,336,120 Russian soldiers have made that sacrifice. But for the fourth month in a row — all of 2026— the Kremlin has failed to recruit enough soldiers to replace its frontline losses.
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COVID-19
During the COVID-19 pandemic and its immediate aftermath, Putin was notorious for maintaining extreme physical distance from foreign leaders and his own officials. This was characterized by the use of excessively long tables, strict quarantine protocols, and limited physical contact.
Photo Credit: SPUTNIK/AFP/Getty Images. French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin in head-to-head talks on how to defuse a potential conflict in Ukraine.
This was captured in a photograph of Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron in February 2022. The two leaders spent more than “five hours sitting at the table — estimated to be up to 20 feet long — for head-to-head talks on how to diffuse a potential conflict in Ukraine.”
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WHAT COMES AROUND GOES AROUND
According to the ‘intelligence report,’ Putin is now “spending more time in underground bunkers micromanaging the war and has grown more detached from civilian affairs.”
Why?
One word — drones.
Then another word — retribution.
In a mathematical equation: drones + retribution = Ukraine.
Putin fears Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but he fears Zelensky’s former Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine — who is now head of the Office of the President of Ukraine — Kyrylo Budanov even more.
As we wrote in The Hill in May 2024 and recently brought to light again by CNN in February, Putin has tried to assassinate Zelensky over a dozen times since he invaded Ukraine. In March of 2024, Zelensky “narrowly avoided his demise in the Black Sea port city of Odesa when a Russian missile exploded 500 meters from the convoy carrying him and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.”
Then again in May, when the FSB hired two Ukrainian colonels assigned to the State Security Administration to identify people close to Zelensky’s security detail who could “take him hostage and later kill him” and assassinate two other senior security officials around the Orthodox Easter holiday.
The last known attempt was in June 2025 at the Rzeszow airport in Poland.
The ‘intelligence report’ says in March of this year the Kremlin’s concern over a coup d’état or an assassination attempt, specifically involving drones, intensified sharply.
And for good reason. Ukraine has revolutionized drone warfare — in the close and interdiction fights via ‘kill zones,’ and in the deep fight. No target is off limits — nor out of range as demonstrated during Operation Spiderweb in June 2025.
Ukraine no longer asks for permission to strike targets in Russia with Western weapons — they used their own manufactured weapons (Fire Point1/2/5 & 7/9).
Ukraine’s ability to geolocate Putin and put ‘steel on target’ was realized. And just like that — the hunted had become the hunter.
As the saying goes, “what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.”
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THE INSIDER THREAT
The effect: The FSO cut down Putin’s visits and security checks for people meeting him in person were tightened. The intelligence report further stated:
“The president and his family stopped going to their residences in the Moscow region and in north-western Valdai.
Putin spent more time in bunkers, including in the Krasnodar area in southern Russia, working from there for several weeks, while state media use recorded footage to project normality.
Staff in the president’s immediate circle, including cooks, photographers and bodyguards, were barred from taking public transport and using mobile phones or internet-enabled devices around him.
Surveillance systems were installed in their homes.
Internet shutdowns in Moscow to enhance the president’s security and anti-drone protection.
FSO agents conduct large-scale checks with the help of dog units and are stationed along the banks of the Moscow river, ready to react in case of drone attacks.”
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THE BLAME GAME
Then came the internal friction — the blame game. Security service representatives blamed one another for failures to protect Russia’s top military personnel, including the assassination of Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, who served as chief of the Operational Training Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
The operational reach of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had arrived on the streets of Moscow — sanctuary was no longer afforded.
The casualty list also included Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, the number two in the main directorate of Russia’s GRU military intelligence. In February 2026 he was wounded in an attack near his residence in the north-western outskirts of the capital.
In January 2024, Lt. Gen. General Igor Kirillov was killed in an explosion outside a block of flats in Moscow. The general had been in charge of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection troops.
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THE EFFECT
Putin’s “remoteness fueled frustration among Russians as they are growing tired of the war and grapple with mounting domestic issues.” His approval ratings – for what they are worth – have slipped to their lowest level since autumn 2022 following his announcement of “a partial mobilization, prompting hundreds of thousands of young men to flee the country.”
And now – the May 9th Victory Parade will be sans missiles and tanks; rather, it will feature a column of troops – cadets – from military academies and the armed forces marching on foot. The Ministry of Defense said, “no military hardware will roll past Lenin’s tomb this year.”
The fear of a possible Ukrainian drone/ballistic missile attack is the stated reason. The Kremlin cannot defend their own skies, prompting Putin to call President Donald Trump to request a cease fire with Ukraine for the event.
Others believe Moscow simply doesn’t have the hardware available “due to the current operational situation.”
Still others believe it could be due to threats concerning a military coup. Marching cadets do not pose a threat; tanks, artillery, and armored personnel carriers in Moscow, under the leadership of a mutinous group of military commanders, could.
The ‘intelligence report’ suggests that Sergei Shoigu “is associated with the risk of a coup, as he retains significant influence within the military high command.” And as the former Russian Defense Minister – he does. He also has his own Private Military Company (PMC) — Patriot.
The reasoning is that Shoigu’s former deputy, Ruslan Tsalikov, was arrested on March 5th on charges of embezzlement, money laundering and bribery, and that Shoigu himself could become the target of a judicial investigation.
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OUR TAKE
We tend to agree with the analysis presented by The Spectator on Monday.
Putin and his protectors understand the threat presented by Zelensky and Budanov and have emplaced additional security protocols for his protection.
They have seen first-hand the results of a determined adversary — via drones, pagers, and cell phones – and the consequences of poor Operational Security (OPSEC).
The optic may be unfavorable for Putin— but he does control the narrative.
While possible — it is not likely Ukraine will strike the parade. They will get more mileage from cadets marching in formation broadcast on Russian television and by continuing to target Russia’s revenue source to finance Putin’s ‘special military operation’ — oil.
While Shoigu may have the capability — “It is hard to impossible to imagine that he has the authority and credibility within the high command to stage a coup, let alone the freedom of operation to do so without coming to the attention of the informants, wiretaps and email interceptions of DVKR, the Federal Security Service’s Military Counterintelligence Department.”
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ICYMI #1
Earlier today, Jon taped a podcast with Leonardo Salvaggio, a journalist in Italy. Salvaggio focuses on explaining America from an Italian perspective.
You can watch it here. The segment is in English.
They discussed why — in Jon’s view — the U.S. went to war with Iran, and how it may end. Jon stressed it was primarily because of Iran’s enriched uranium and nuclear weapons program — at least from a U.S. perspective.
He also stressed to Leonardo that this was a joint U.S.-Israel operation, and that Israel had national security issues as well including defeating Iranian proxies, ballistic missile threat and nuclear weapons.
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ICYMI #2
Last week, Jon & Mark appeared on First Western TV in Ukraine to discuss the latest on the war in Ukraine. Our good friend Daniel Tkiie hosted.
You can watch it here. The segment is in English.
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ICYMI #3
Earlier this evening, Mark was on Al Qahera News. The subject was Iran in light of President Donald Trump’s decisiontonight to suspend Project Freedom.
You can watch it here.
It was breaking news at the time. We will have more to say on Trump’s decision and what is behind it tomorrow.
Briefly, for now, in our view Trump is putting too much faith in Pakistan & is perhaps wanting to punt for time given his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Temporarily halting the freedom of navigation so as to avoid armed clashes with Iran might be one way of doing just that.
Either way, it is a bad look. Especially as it appears Trump is caving in to the Iranians. As we warned here last night, Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the IRGC, is not a trustworthy negotiating partner with Washington.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Putin’s no military vehicles parade, reminds me of what happened to Sadat in Egypt. Trying to get a ceasefire for the parade shows just how effective Ukraine has become with drone technology.