INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.04.2026
May 4th, 2026
Greetings!
It’s Monday & Iran is making a mess of our plans. We had intended on writing about NATO today — especially to call for a U.S. shift to supporting our eastern NATO allies — but Tehran’s power play goals on Team Trump today are chasing us to shift focus.
We will get to NATO tomorrow or soon after, but for today, we need to stay focused on the Middle East and in particular on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the United Arab Emirates.
Photo credit: CENTCOM. U.S. Navy MH-60 Sea Hawk helicopters are supporting Project Freedom in and near the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier today, Sea Hawk and U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopters were used to eliminate Iranian small boats threatening commercial shipping.
Iran threw down the gauntlet today, so we will pick it up & explain what’s behind its messaging & intent.
Let’s get started.
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IRAN IS SENDING TRUMP A MESSAGE
As Mark said Sunday on Al Qahera News — and reiterated again today on the same Egyptian TV network — Team Iran is sending President Donald Trump a clear and consistent message that they are down but not out.
Tehran — at the behest of Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s national security council, and Saeed Jalili, the head of Iran’s Stability Front faction in parliament — is telling Team Trump they are intent on flipping the negotiating script.
This shift — or, in reality, as Mark noted several times this weekend on Al Qahera, it is really a ‘reset’ — is an attempt by Vahidi to flip the negotiating script.
Iran’s gambit to do so began on Persian Gulf Day — April 30th — when Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who may or may not be alive, lashed out at Team Trump in a series of posts on X & across state-affiliated media in Iran.
The day itself is significant too. It marks the date in 1622 when Persia expelled Portuguese troops from the Strait of Hormuz. Clearly, 404 years later — no, that isn’t an http error — Iran is seeking to do the same to U.S. forces.
The gist of Khamenei’s message — or that of his ghostwriter — was that Iran will not capitulate to Trump’s demands at the negotiating table. Equally important — at least for us as national security analysts — it told us that the IRGC hardliners in Tehran & elsewhere have emerged fully in control of Iran’s government.
It reaffirmed what we thought we witnessed on April 21st, the day Vice President JD Vance was supposed to fly to Islamabad for a second set of peace talks in Pakistan. The pragmatists — at least in the form of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — had lost a power struggle with Vahidi & company.
Ghalibaf — useful pawn or not, as we speculated here last month — was out. Vahidi & his IRGC hardliners are in.
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FLIPPING THE SCRIPT
Trump, since February 28th, has made it clear that eliminating Iran’s nuclear weapons program —including but not limited to demanding zero uranium enrichment going forward — was his primary goal & justification for the war.
He did so again today on the Salem News Channel. Trump said, “One way or the other, we have one thing — they [Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
Everything else when it comes to negotiating with Iran, as he’s noted multiple times, stems from there.
Vahidi gets that.
It is why he is flipping the script. Iran — for now, at least — is not willing to negotiate its nuclear weapons program until every other file, including the U.S. lifting all sanctions & Washington paying Tehran war reparations.
Instead, Vahidi is insisting that the U.S. first ends its blockade of Iran’s western & southern seaports — of which, 90% of the country’s oil exports must pass through — in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Vahidi’s kicker?
The strait remains under Iran’s ironclad control going forward & it will form the basis of a new regional military & economic alliance between Tehran & the Gulf States. Plus, the U.S. has to withdraw from all of its bases in the Persian Gulf region.
No wonder Trump said no. That said, it also begs why Trump chose to say no diplomatically — at least for now — instead of with a show of U.S. military action to disabuse Vahidi of his negotiating position.
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TALE OF THREE INTERPRETATIONS
Trump is likely — in our view — badly misreading the Iranians. He sees Tehran’s attempt to flip the negotiating script as Vahidi & his IRGC hardliners tacitly conceding that Trump’s economic blockade is working.
Vahidi, in all likelihood, knows that it is working in terms of the economic pressure it is creating inside of Iran, but he judges its effectiveness differently.
In his mind, despite the short-term damage to Tehran & despite the potential long-term damage to Iran’s oil fields that we covered here last week, it is worth it to Vahidi because of the damage Iran is doing to the global economy, Trump’s political standing in the U.S. ahead of November’s midterms, and Tehran’s strategic play to permanently divide the U.S. from its regional Gulf State allies.
Vahidi is sending Trump a message, but he just doesn’t see it or understand it. Or, as analysts, we can’t discount that for purposes of strategic ambiguity & potential looming military strike, Trump sees it but does not want the Iranians to know that.
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UAE OIL TANKER HIT
Earlier today, Iran fired on a UAE oil tanker identified as the MV Barakah operating in the Persian Gulf. Iran, essentially, is telling Team Trump to come get them.
The U.S. did.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced today that the U.S. destroyed six Iran fast boats operating in the Strait of Hormuz.
During comments, Adm. Brad Cooper, the Commander of CENTCOMM, also acknowledged that Iran had fired on U.S. Navy assets operating in the region. Prior to his comments, CENTCOM denied Iranian claims that one of its warships had been hit by two IRGC missiles.
When pressed, Cooper — understandably — since it is the president’s call — refused to state whether Iran had broken the ceasefire or not. Clearly, they did, but equally clearly Team Trump was likely instructed to downplay it in the media.
The White House doing so wasn’t a good call. As both of us can attest from our multiple appearances today on Middle Eastern television stations, analysts across the region are interpreting it as U.S. weakness.
UAE OIL FACILITIES HIT
Vahidi wasn’t content with just one message. To sell his hardline diplomatic reset with Team Trump, he sent another kinetic message by launching at least 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 unmanned aerial vehicles at an oil facility in the UAE.
One of them — although the actual damage isn’t yet known — appears to have hit the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. Flames coming from the facility were caught by multiple people & then shared widely across social media.
Trump’s initial reaction?
Spoiler: it wasn’t a good one. Trump said the damage wasn’t that great. In a conversation with ABC’s Jonathan Karl, he said, “One got through. Not huge damage.”
That’s not the message that the UAE needed to hear, especially after doubling down on its military & economic alliance with Washington — including withdrawing from OPEC much to Saudi Arabia’s ire.
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IRAN TAUNTS TRUMP
Trump needs a new playbook. Iran is not only seeing through his threats, they are now also taunting him –– as well as taking military action in the face of them. Earlier today. Trump said on Fox News that Iran will be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attack U.S. assets protecting maritime traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s reaction?
They hit a UAE oil tanker & then the UAE oil field.
There were also verbal and written taunts.
Esmail Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, was asked by an unidentified reporter, “America is a superpower. Why don’t you back down or compromise.” His answer? “We are also a superpower.” Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the national security commission of the Iranian parliament accused Team Trump of conducting a “FALSE FLAG.”
It is clear — indeed, crystal clear — that Vahidi & the IRGC do not fear Trump. They don’t believe Trump will back up his words — or if he does, that he will be able to topple the IRGC regime even if CENTCOM kills Vahidi, Zolghadr or Jalili.
They also clearly do not believe that Trump’s economic blockade of Iran’s seaports will bring the IRGC to its knees.
Something has to give. Iran is actively violating the ceasefire & Trump is — intentionally or not — excusing their violations.
By doing so, he is making himself look weak & is only inviting more of the same. Iran — especially Vahidi — will only respect overwhelming force.
Get to it Mr. President. Unleash Adm. Brad Cooper & CENTCOM.
***
ICYMI #1
Yesterday, Jon was on the Main Edition of TVP World News. Our good friend Ashim Kumar hosted the segment.
You can watch Jon’s segment here or the entire news broadcast here.
They discussed Trump’s threats to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany –- and potentially Italy & Spain as well –– and its implications on overall European & NATO security. Ashim’s questions inspired our upcoming NATO piece.
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ICYMI #2
Jon was also on Al Qahera earlier this morning. The focus was on Gaza & how it plays a factor into the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
You can watch it here.
Jon kept hammering home that peace in the Mideast –– including in Gaza, Lebanon & Syria –– isn’t possible as long as the Iranian regime remains in power.
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ICYMI #3
Mark was also on Al Qahera News earlier today. The subject was Iran & Mark was largely in agreement with his fellow guest panelist in Cairo, Egypt that Iran was not going to capitulate to Team Trump absent U.S. military action.
Things did sharpen at the end. The Cairo guest –– in a throwaway line –– asserted that Russia was “rolling over Ukraine.”
Mark quickly disabused him of that notion. For the record here, it is Russia –– especially in terms of casualties –– that is getting rolled by Ukraine. Notably, the guest didn’t push back on Mark’s counterpoints.
You can watch it here.
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ICYMI #4
Mark was also on Al Qahera yesterday to discuss the latest developments in Iran. Essentially, the panel lead up to Mark’s segment was blaming Israel for everything in the Middle East, including Iran’s aggression.
Mark spent his time blaming Iran.
You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Iranian theocracy is a problem; Trump is even more problematic.
Trump has such an incredibly high regard for money, and thinks everyone else does too, that he can't imagine Iran not fretting over its economy in the face of the crippling blockade.
Just as Trump seems to live in some other version of reality, he can't even begin to imagine how another nation's culture doesn't align with his.
Isn't there some quote about needing to know your enemy in order to be victorious?