INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT UPDATED
01.02.2026
January 4th, 2026 Update.
The link to a key Institute for The Study of War interactive Iran protest map was broken in the original email of our INTREP360 Intelligence Report for 01.02.2026. We have now updated with the new link online.
You can also find it here at the ISW.
Thanks! We will see you tomorrow!
Jon & Mark
January 2nd, 2026
Greetings! Iran is burning. Largely fueled by economic stress, the growing protests across the country against the Islamic regime of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are taking on a nationalistic vibe.
Cries of “Javid Shah!” – Long Live the Shah – are being heard on the streets of Tehran & in cities spanning the length & width of the country.
That’s significant, because, as Alex Winston points out – that means Iranians are not just protesting against Khamenei but are yearning for a return to their country’s pre-Islamic past that was overthrown in 1979.
Whether it results in a rising fiery Phoenix in the shape of Reza Pahlavi – the exiled Crown Prince of Iran – is too soon to know.
Image created by Grok 4.1. Depicts Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a rising Phoenix.
We’ve been here before in Iran. Since the Green Movement that began in 2009, when “hundreds of thousands marched in the streets,” there have been three major outbreaks of widespread protests in Iran.
The Iranian economic protests of 2017 & 2018. The Bloody November protests in 2019. And the Mahsa Amini protests over women’s rights in 2022 & 2023.
Khamenei survived them all. Just as he survived Iran’s 12-day war with Israel which also saw the U.S. bombing key Iranian nuclear sites as part of Operation Midnight Hammer.
Dictators – especially evil ones – do not fall easily. This time, however, there is a different dynamic at play.
Iran’s merchant class – the bazaaris – who traditionally have supported the Khamenei & the clerics, are now backing the most recent wave of mass protests. Inflation is at 42.5% & the “Iranian rial lost around half its value against the dollar in 2025.
Today, as the protests turned deadly, President Donald Trump declared that if “peaceful protestors” are shot, then the U.S. is prepared to militarily intervene.
Given Trump’s statement, we could be moving toward an inflection point in Iran. But it also begs the question whether the U.S. has enough military assets in the region to successfully intervene to protect Iranian civilians.
Perhaps not.
Especially given the buildup of U.S. military & naval forces in the Caribbean. There are other options. The Israelis are one. Targeting Khamenei is another.
Let’s start digging deeper! To do this, we are going to forego our normal 360 region-by-region format today in a special edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report.
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These new Iranian protests do feel different. Previous ones – brave & laudable as they were – were more single-issue focused, be it the economy, fuel prices or women’s rights. They were less about regime change & more weighted toward reform.
Video credit: Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi - Iran.
Today, however, they feel revolutionary in scope.
Why?
A dynamic convergence happening. It’s no longer just “It’s the economy stupid.” Nor just women’s rights. It’s the bazaaris, women, & now university students increasingly coalescing together to demand “freedom and equality.”
Significantly, it is not just happening in Tehran. The same revolutionary dynamic is playing out around the country.
As of today, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has verified Iranian protests in Tehran, Tabriz, Mashhad, Kermanshah, Esfahan, Shiraz, Zahedan & elsewhere. Also, beginning today, the ISW is updating an interactive map tracking the ongoing demonstrations, strikes & violent attacks against the Khamenei regime.
Note: If you wish to access the ISW’s free interactive map, click the picture below. You will be able to find details on each verified incident including the sources used by the ISW team to verify them. Green circles on the map = high confidence, Yellow = medium confidence & brown = low confidence.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
OSINT – open-source intelligence – video clips suggest they continue to expand & intensify. While the overall scale & number of protests remain to be determined, we appear to be seeing a wide variety of kinetic attacks against Khamenei regime targets or regime-affiliated institutions across the entire country.
E.g., purported videos of state flags being taken down, banks burned & what appear to be armed protestors. That said, we have not yet been able to independently verify these videos or geolocate them so view them with caution for now.
We can verify that large non-violent street demonstrations against the Khamenei regime are taking place in Tehran & around the country. We also know, as the ISW is reporting, that Iranian forces have shot water cannons at protestors in Hamedan & live ammo at demonstrators in Fasa & Kuhdasht.
Notably, Pahlavi this evening on X called on Iranians to take to the streets. He urged Iranians to “overcome our fear” of the Khamenei regime and “to go, within small, cohesive groups of friends and family members, to the nearest street in your neighborhood, find one another, and then, hand in hand, move toward the central streets of the city.”
Screenshot: Pahlavi post on X, January 2nd, 2026.
Pahlavi is betting on Iranians to paralyze the Khamenei regime by ‘flooding’ the nation with millions of protestors. It is likely he senses what we do, that his fellow countrymen & women are no longer protesting against something, but rather for something new – or in the case of the ‘Javid Shah!’ something old & once defining of Iran.
It is estimated that 61% or more of Iranians are ethnically Persian. They descend from an ancient civilization that is 2500+ years old dating back to Cyrus the Great who founded the Achaemenid Empire in 550 BCE.
Photo credit: Britannica.com. Cyrus the Great.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is less than 50 years old. Prior to that, despite the influence of Shia Islam, the country was not ruled as a theocracy.
Significantly, Iran is also going through its own “Iran First” movement at the grass root level. Increasingly, an old slogan is getting louder at these street protests: “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, may my life be sacrificed for Iran.”
Consider it the equivalent of the anti-Ukraine isolationist wing in Washington DC. Except unlike on Capitol Hill, Iran’s isolationists are right. Iranians shouldn’t be funding the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria & Iraq. Especially given prices in Iran increased a whopping 52% on average in 2025.
Thus far, Khamenei’s regime appears to be underreacting. Clashes between protestors & Iranian security forces are ongoing. For now, at least ten demonstrators are reported to have been killed in the skirmishes. 80 others were reportedly arrested.
That could soon change. It is clear that a perfect storm is brewing. The bazaaris have had it with a fast-unraveling Iranian economy. Iranian women are openly ditching their hijabs. And university students are shouting “Freedom, Freedom, Freedom!”
It is the latter group that the Khamenei regime likely fears the most. Especially since it was Iran’s university students who were key in toppling the Shah in 1979 (and subsequently occupying the U.S. Embassy for 444 days & holding 50 Americans in what became known as the Iranian Hostage Crisis).
Photo credit: Atlantic Council.
In truth, however, Khamenei should be afraid of all three. This isn’t 1979. It isn’t even 2025 when his regime survived the U.S. & Israeli attacks. It is 2026 & Khamenei’s economy is imploding & his streets are exploding in protest.
Plus, perhaps in desperation, that is why Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared last week that Iran is in a “full-fledged war with America, Israel and Europe.” Deflecting, this time, isn’t likely to work.
Nor is Russian & Chinese aid likely to end the street protests. Multiple OSINT reports suggest they are flying military aid into Iran but as of now, we cannot confirm that. It wouldn’t be surprising if they were.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is highly invested in Khamenei’s survival given that Tehran is a key Axis of Evil partner. Plus, as Jason M. Brodsky noted in an analysis at The Spectator, it would deal a blow to another of Putin’s allies: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In addition to Iranian shadow fleets, it would put an end to Tehran’s Quds Force’s Unit 840.
The force, according to Brodsky, “plots terror schemes abroad.” He also noted that “Iran’s proxy Hezbollah has also used Venezuela as a hub to support its own terrorism, drug trafficking and business interests.” Putin’s web runs deep. Even in the Western hemisphere courtesy of Venezuela & Iran.
Screenshot: USAbehFarsi on X.
Meanwhile, in addition to Trump’s Truth social post, the U.S. is continuing reiterating its support for the Iranian protesters. The State Department’s Farsi account applauded the “courage” of the demonstrators & declared that “Their resolve in the face of repression deserves the attention of the world.”
It is clear that Iranians on the street are & were encouraged by Trump’s support for their protests & that the U.S. is prepared to act to guarantee their safety.
To do that, Team Trump either needs to send more U.S. military assets into the region – many of which are now in the Caribbean – or make it clear to Khamenei that if he unleashes his security forces – especially the Basij, Iran’s paramilitary group used to suppress internal dissent – that Washington will strike regime targets.
Khamenei & his regime would be a good thing. It would, as Brodsky notes, hurt Venezuela & stop Iranian terrorist attacks in Latin America.
It would also severely hurt, if not destroy, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis & other IRGC proxies undermining peace in the Mideast & the expansion of the Abraham Accords. To be certain, Iran’s protesters are fighting for their future but – significantly – that fight’s outcome will impact the future of the entire region.
Stay tuned!
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WHO WE ARE FOLLOWING!
Goldie Ghamari. Former Canadian MP who now covers Iran extensively. Follow her on X at @gghamari or on YouTube at youtube.com/@gghamarimpp.
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Thanks for reading! We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.