INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.23.2026
February 23rd, 2026
Greetings! It wasn’t a quiet weekend. Nor has it been a silent Monday. Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes—the Mexican drug lord known as “El Mencho”—was killed during an attempt to apprehend him leading to reprisal terrorist attacks in Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta & elsewhere across Mexico’s Pacific Coast.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán & Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico—already not the sharpest tools in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tool shed—threatened to blackmail Ukraine by refusing to backstop its electric grid needs unless Ukraine re-opens the Druzhba oil pipeline so their countries can resume purchases of Russian oil.
Photo credit: @exilenova_plus. Druzhba oil pumping station burns in Tatarstan.
It turned out to be a FAFO moment—yes, as an aside, I am quickly tiring of the expression too, but it especially fits here—for both Orbán & Fico.
Earlier today, Ukraine reportedly hit a key Transneft-Prikamye JSC oil pumping station that supplies the Druzhba pipeline. Budapest & Bratislava can blackmail all they want but they are not getting any Russian oil any time soon.
Elsewhere, President Donald Trump said not so fast on reports Gen. Dan Caine—the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—was opposed to striking Iran in force & that the White House was instead considering limited strikes. Yet, reports are still persisting into the night that Trump isn’t satisfied with his range of options.
Plus, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warns Europe & the U.S. that Putin has started World War III—a position I’ve held ever since Putin launched his so-called ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine on February 24th, 2022.
Let’s get started covering that & more!
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NORTH AMERICA
Today has been a day of mixed messaging from the White House, Pentagon, Capitol Hill & media in general when it comes to Iran.
Initially, Barak Ravid—a reporter for Axios who regularly texts Trump—reported this morning that Caine had warned the president that “a military campaign against Iran could carry significant risks, in particular the possibility of becoming entangled in a prolonged conflict [in the Middle East.]”
Similar articles soon followed. The Wall Street Journal warned that according to unnamed U.S. officials, the “war plans being considered [by Trump] carry risks including U.S. and allied casualties, depleted air defense and an overtaxed force.”
Later, the Washington Post reported that according to an unnamed U.S. official, Caine is concerned that any kinetic U.S. military operations against Iran “would be made all the more difficult [due to] a lack of allied support.” Similar stories followed including one from CBS News that Trump is frustrated by his options.
Shortly after 4 PM ET, Trump had enough. He posted on his Truth Social account that there was no truth to Caine being against going to war in Iran. Likewise, he claimed that it was inaccurate that he was considering a limited strike.
Screenshot: Donald J. Trump Truth Social post; dated February 23rd, 2026.
I can’t know—however, I do suspect—that some of these leaks are designed as strategic ambiguity messaging & some of them are genuine pushback from Pentagon & White House officials who are concerned that prolonged U.S. involvement in Iran would give Chinese President Xi Jinping an advantage in the Indo-Pacific.
If it is the former, then the purpose is simple—to entice Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & his regime to drop their guard. However, if it is also the latter, then it is a highly self-defeating approach as they are being leaked at the worst possible time & only serve to give Iran negotiating leverage.
Especially since yesterday, Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi—acting as a mediator, albeit one favoring Tehran—confirmed that a new round of talks between the U.S. & Iran will take place this Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland.
Telegraphing to Khamenei that Caine fears a prolonged U.S. military involvement would be highly self-defeating at the negotiating table.
Why do that?
It would only harden Khamenei’s red lines regarding uranium enrichment, Iran’s ballistic missile program & Tehran’s funding & training of 15-plus militias including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
The leaks were likely intended to catch Iran off-guard ahead of looming U.S. military strikes. Then—however—China hawks saw an opening to try to flood the zone with fears that any U.S. involvement in Iran would unduly risk U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. They view Khamenei as manageable.
I could be wrong but there were suddenly too many stories today popping up about potential ship-launched SM-2, SM-3& SM-6 munition shortages as well as potential ground-based THAAD interceptor & Patriot interceptor shortages if Iran were to rapidly go sideways & devolve into a regional war.
They are valid concerns. Some of these systems & missiles can take up to two years to manufacture & the U.S. is still struggling to ramp up production.
That said, why leak this now? Especially ahead of the Geneva talks? Something isn’t quite adding up here.
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LATIN AMERICA
Oseguera Cervantes was the head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. More commonly known by its acronym—CJNG (Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación in Spanish)—is a major drug trafficker of fentanyl into the U.S.
On Sunday—acting on U.S.-provided intelligence—the Mexican Army & National Guard killed him in a firefight. Claudia Sheinbaum––Mexico’s president––emphasized that no U.S. troops were used in the operation.
Photo credit: DEA. Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera Cervantes; undated.
Last June, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Oseguera Cervantes along with four other top cartel leaders. U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent—at the time—also accused CJNG of being “involved in a plethora of criminal activities, including fuel theft, timeshare fraud, migrant smuggling, and corruption.”
CJNG isn’t going quietly. Purportedly, it has 30,000-plus cartel members. It is well-armed & well-funded paramilitary, & it immediately began conducting a series of reprisal attacks in Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta & elsewhere across Mexico’s Pacific Coast.
Tourists from the U.S. & tourists from around the globe were caught by the sudden outbreak of violence & were advised to shelter in place. So far, 73 people have been reported as being killed. It is not yet clear if any were foreigners.
Time will tell if this breaks out into a larger cartel war as CJNG leaders & competing Mexican drug cartels seek to fill the vacuum. Significantly, Guadalajara is set to host four World Cup games later this year.
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EUROPE
Boldly, Zelensky made it clear that he views Putin as having sparked World War III. As longtime readers know, I’ve made that same argument since the beginning of the war & last Thursday I dedicated an entire INTREP360 Intelligence Report explaining in detail how I arrived at the conclusion on the first day of the war.
Over the weekend, Orbán & Fico—the leaders of Hungary & Slovakia, respectively—doubled down on the wrong side of that war by siding with Putin. Orbán went first, threatening to block a key €90 billion European Union loan to Ukraine until such time as Zelensky agrees to resume the flow of Russian fuel to Hungary.
Photo credit & copyright: Omar Havana / AP. Orbán, left & Fico, right.
EU leaders called it “political blackmail.” Orbán—however—responded by refusing to backstop Ukraine’s electricity needs as a result of the ongoing Russian attacks on the country’s electrical grid. He also refused to support any more EU sanctions against Russia until Ukraine capitulates to his demands.
Fico quickly followed suit. Nonetheless, in vain.
That isn’t going to happen.
Ukraine made that clear by striking the key oil pumping facility that supplies the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Tomorrow marks the 4th anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet instead of standing with the victim, Orbán & Fico cowardly chose to stand with the aggressor.
History won’t be kind to either man. Hopefully neither will Hungary’s voters next month during the country’s elections. Especially since Orbán is––foolishly––trying to run against Zelensky & Ukraine instead of running against Péter Magyar, the head of the Tisza Party (Respect & Freedom Party).
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Speaking of Zelensky, Ukraine is riding high. Since the end of January, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated 154 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the south of the country at the intersection of the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
Far from withdrawing from its own lands—as Team Trump is pressuring Zelensky to do in the Donbas—Ukraine is pushing the Russian invader back. Below is an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) chart detailing Ukraine’s recent gains.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
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MIDDLE EAST
The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is nearing the Middle East. Earlier today, it was sighted in Crete. The carrier is expected to travel on to Haifa, Israel in the coming days. Thus far, that has not been officially confirmed.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military buildup in the region continues at pace. Time is running out for Iran to make a deal.
I doubt that deal happens. As I warned here last week, Khamenei has likely made the bet that he and/or his regime can survive any U.S. strike.
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INDO-PACIFIC
The rift between China & Japan continues to grow. Late tonight, news broke that Beijing is banning dual use exports of rare earth minerals, technologies & manufactured goods to 20 Japanese companies & their subsidiaries.
Entities affected include Mitsubishi, the National Defense Academy of Japan & the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. Other Japanese entities including Subaru have been placed on a so-called watch list.
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ICYMI
I was on Al Qahera News on Saturday to discuss the latest on the U.S. buildup against Iran with another guest panelist who was in Tehran.
This segment is in Arabic.
https://youtube.com/shorts/hU2F8gL1Tr8?si=QDTuWh7bEw4yqYkP
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Mark
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.