INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

05.20.2026: THE U.S. IS LOSING IN UKRAINE

May 20^th, 2026

Greetings!

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, during an appearance on TVP World, immediately caught our attention on Monday when he said, “I think that we are going to regret that we, the U.S., did not do more to help Ukraine.”

AI image credit: Grok. An American eagle competing with a Russian bear in Europe.

We agree.

Kyiv, as Hodges noted in the same interview, is going to win the war against Russia. Moscow, short of nukes, has no clear conventional military path to victory in Ukraine.

Certainly, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be the biggest loser once the war is over. He has wrecked his wartime economy — GDP shrank by a combined 1.8% alone in January & February — and he is responsible for the death or wounding of 1,352,070 Russian soldiers.

Yet Putin isn’t the only one losing in Ukraine. The U.S. is losing as well because neither former President Joe Biden was nor President Donald Trump is, at least to date, willing to go ‘all in’ in ensuring Ukrainian victory.

Hesitancy is one thing. As we noted at the time in The Hill, Biden, especially at the hands of his former national security advisor Jake Sullivan & his former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, was guilty of only providing Ukraine ‘just enough’ to survive.

Trump, by comparison, has been even worse. Whereas hesitancy reigned supreme during Biden’s term in office, coercive obstruction in terms of intelligence sharing, weapons & munitions, has far too often been Trump’s modus operandi.

Consequently, due to both presidents, the U.S. risks losing a lot economically & strategically in the decade ahead.

Let’s get started understanding why.

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LT. GEN. BEN HODGES

Hodges is not just another retired general. His perspective, when it comes to Ukraine, Russia & Europe as a whole, is deep-seated.

From 2014 to 2017, he served as the Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe. His job then? In a nutshell, it was to defend Europe from any Russian invasion & then to expel the invader from NATO territory.

Jon also served together with Hodges during Operation Iraqi Freedom. He was the 1^st Brigade commander while Jon was the chief of the Division’s Analysis & control element (ACE). ACE is Army-speaking meaning that Jon was responsible for intelligence analysis & the collection management effort.

Their paths crossed again in Europe when Jon ran the EUCOM J2 Intelligence Engagement Division while Hodges was dual-hatted as the NATO Land Forces Commander and the Commander, U.S. Army Europe.

More succinctly, Hodges — you can follow him on X at @general_ben — is not just a subject matter expert. He lived it.

Since Day 1 of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, Hodges has argued the importance of doing everything it takes to ensure that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky & his generals have everything they need to expel Russia.

Hodges was the first to argue that Crimea is the ‘decisive terrain’ of the war & that its outcome would not only determine Ukraine’s security, but that it would have — and it still does — a major impact on NATO’s future security.

Two wars are being fought in Ukraine right now. One is the fight for Ukraine’s survival as a free & sovereign state. The other is for the defense of Europe’s southern flank in eastern Europe including the Black Sea.

Crimea is still the decisive terrain as Hodges argued again on Tuesday when he noted on X that the “first step to liberating Crimea is to isolate it by cutting [Russia’s land corridor from Crimea to the Russian motherland] and [destroying] the Kerch Bridge.”

Do that, and as Hodges notes, Ukraine would effectively “make it untenable and unusable for Russian forces.”

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NATO SECURITY

Simply put, European & NATO security, especially in the east, is enhanced if Ukraine defeats & expels Russia from its territory. Plus, it would be considerably strengthened if Kyiv is allowed to join NATO thereby securing Europe’s eastern & southeastern flanks.

If we circle back to February 21^st, 2022 — the day before Putin invaded Ukraine — NATO, geographically speaking, had three major vulnerabilities. The first was the Baltic Sea to the north. The Suwalki Gap that divides central Europe from the Baltic States. And the Black Sea in the south.

Finland & Sweden’s subsequent accession to NATO mitigated the northern Russian threat by effectively turning the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake. Poland, especially its 4.7% GDP spending on defense, has significantly helped defend the Suwalki Gap from any potential Russian invasion via Belarus.

Plus, equally significantly, Ukraine by chasing Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from its Sevastopol base in Crimea, has neutered the Kremlin in the south. Bear in mind too that Ukraine accomplished that despite not being a naval power.

We can’t — and never would — speak for Gen. Hodges, but we highly suspect he would have lost fewer nights of sleep worrying about the Russian bear knowing that Finland, Sweden, Poland & effectively Ukraine had been added to his side of the European chessboard.

So why can’t Team Trump see that? To be fair, why couldn’t Team Biden, especially Jake Sullivan, see that as well?

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RISKING THE FUTURE

Clearly, Team Trump believes its actions — coercive attempts, really — are what is needed to save NATO. In fairness, there is a lot about NATO, especially Old NATO as we noted in the Kyiv Post, that needs to be remedied.

Old NATO — and here’s looking at you, France, Germany & the United Kingdom — has for too long shirked their defense needs. Not just in terms of spending, but in terms of developing leading-edge defense capabilities as well.

Plus, like Team Biden, Old NATO fell into the same ‘just enough’ trap when it came to aiding Ukraine be it stonewalling over F-16s, Leopard tanks, or green-lighting the Taurus missile for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Their fear of Putin & their then-dependence on Russian oil & gas imports led to perpetual paralysis.

Despite talking about it for years now — and here’s looking at you, Emmanuel Macron, the president of France — Sky Shield has yet to be emplaced to protect western Ukraine from Russian ballistic missile, cruise missile & drone attacks. Macron is very good at scheduling & hosting European summits on Ukraine.

Yet he delivers very little. Hopefully, that changes, we have long been proponents for a no-fly zone over western Ukraine & have called for it repeatedly in our articles, TV commentary, & radio hits.

Nonetheless, in our view, Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ approach to getting old NATO to do more is putting all of NATO at risk. Exhibit A is the Pentagon’s ill-advised decision to cut the number of Brigade Combat Teams that are stationed in Europe from four to three — the same number that it was in 2021 prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

One, it sends the wrong signal to Putin at the wrong time. Two, it hurts U.S. combat capabilities in Europe by reducing training — especially its interoperability elements with other NATO forces — and, as Hodges notes, it takes pressure off of Russia.

While Putin isn’t yet down for the count in Ukraine, he & his generals are staggering as Ukraine, for now at least, largely controls the initiative. Why give Putin a lifeline, especially since if it succeeds it would only hurt NATO in the future?

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LOSING THE FUTURE

Perhaps most maddening — for us at least, and seemingly Hodges as well — is Trump is losing the future in Ukraine. Instead of backing Zelensky to the hilt, Team Trump, especially Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner, are still working to get Ukraine to cede its strategic fortress belt in the Donbas.

We didn’t get a chance to ping Gen. Hodges before penning this, but we suspect we know his answer. Had we asked him during his time as the Commander, U.S. Army Europe, whether he wanted to defend against Russia with or without friendly control of that strategic fortress belt in Ukraine, he would have quickly told us controlling it would be the equivalent of manna from heaven.

In 2014 that option was only a pipe dream. Now? Unless Trump throws it away, it is the new reality in Europe.

Yet, there is far more to lose in Ukraine.

Drone warfare, as we’ve written about, has been a true Revolution in Military Affairs & Ukraine is at the forefront of it. Not just in the air, where Kyiv is beating the Kremlin, but on the ground. Last month, Zelensky called for fast-tracking production of 50,000 ground robots within a year to supplement the AFU.

Not only has the U.S. military needed the AFU’s hard-earned expertise in the current war in Ukraine — ditto Israel & our Gulf State allies who can benefit from it as well — we will need it exponentially in the future. Especially in the event the U.S. has to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, or more broadly, as we warned in Monday’s INTREP 360 Intelligence Report, U.S. interests across the entirety of the Indo-Pacific.

Plus, as Hodges noted, we are also likely to lose out economically when a post-war Ukraine becomes the hub of defense research & production. Instead of being in on the ground floor, we risk being on the outside looking in.

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ENOUGH LOSING, IT’S TIME TO START WINNING IN UKRAINE

Rarely do strategic, tactical & future wins line up in a single country or ally. Yet Ukraine is that exception.

Strategically, they are & can continue to check Russian aggression against NATO. Tactically, they strengthen — especially its Fortress Donbas — military approaches to threatening eastern & central Europe.

Plus, Ukraine will drive future military & research development that will be needed to fight U.S. wars in the future, if they arise.

Enough losing. Let’s get back to winning & Ukraine is a good place to start. Especially since they are already on offense.

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ICYMI

Earlier today, in both the print & online editions of the New York Post, we reminded readers about the importance of apolitically calling balls & strikes when writing or commentating on U.S. national security.

Doomsdaying in the media — or by the media — only helps the enemy which in this case is the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Photo credit: Reuters. Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam, Oman, May 18^th, 2026.

You can read it here.

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PROGRAMMING NOTE

Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM ET national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we dive into the latest round of Trump’s ‘forever cease-fire’ in Iran.

You can read it here when it goes live.

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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.