INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.02.2026
March 2nd, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 3 of the war in Iran. Kuwaiti friendly fire downed three U.S. Air Force (USAF) F-15E Strike Eagles. One more U.S. soldier was reported killed—Godspeed to their soul & memory. Plus—predictably—self-defeating friendly fire is erupting in Washington, D.C. as the three-day-old conflict becomes a partisan battle at home.
Photo credit: Israeli Air Force. F15 Baz Fighters.
There is a time & place to debate President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran as well as his justifications, but it’s not now given that U.S. soldiers are in harm’s way. Save that for another day after the war is over.
The reality is—for better or worse—the fighting in Iran has commenced & our primary focus must be on ensuring America wins. Handwringing has never won a war. Nor has it ever fast-tracked peace.
Before we get started—especially for our new readers & subscribers—here is a well-intentioned reminder that our national security & foreign policy analyses are always intentionally apolitical & nonpartisan.
U.S. national security—as we often say—is our only guiding star. Especially since we decidedly are not political experts.
We only examine policies & decisions—not political parties or partisan positions. That means we credit or criticize elected officials & decision makers as warranted, but we never criticize or praise them on the basis of party affiliations be they Democrats, Republicans, Socialists, Greens, or independents.
Everyone is welcome here. Our goal is to talk together in this forum as fellow Americans—or, as the case may be, as fellow allies.
Let’s get started!
***
It is up to Team Trump to explain its mission & its goals. We can’t do that for them, nor should we. But we can say—now that hostilities are underway—what those goals should be going forward in Iran & across the Middle East.
In our view, since 1979—the start of the Iranian Revolution—the U.S. & our allies have been trapped in a ‘forever war’ with Iran. Despite 47 years of diplomacy across 8 administrations—all of it well-intentioned—Tehran & its radical theologically-driven agenda has been the primary source of instability.
That agenda—conservatively—has led directly or indirectly to the deaths of 800,000 to 1.2 million people. The point being that failed diplomacy—however well intentioned—can lead to far more casualties than war.
Iran—as evidenced thus far by the regime’s military actions the last several days in attacking 9 different countries—was not going to get any better. If true peace throughout the Mideast is to be achieved—including in Gaza or Lebanon—then the Islamic Republic of Iran must be decisively defeated.
***
So, what should the end state goals be?
1. Complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program including the seizure of all highly enriched uranium.
2. Complete destruction of Iran’s ballistic missile weapons program including all mobile & fixed launchers & rocket fuel production facilities.
3. Complete destruction of Iran’s Shahed drone weapons program including munitions & fuel production facilities.
4. Complete destruction of Iran’s Navy including port facilities, littoral & blue water naval vessels, & naval bases.
5. Complete destruction of Iran’s air defenses including early surface to air missile systems & warning radar systems.
6. Complete destruction of any biological weapons programs.
7. Complete destruction of all domestic security facilities, weapons depots, training centers & command & control––especially that of the Basij.
8. Complete destruction of Iran’s remaining air force.
9. Putting an end to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) funding & training of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis & a dozen-plus other violent Islamic militias across the Mideast.
10. Regime change.
We don’t argue for regime change lightly. We are decidedly not neocons. Regime change—in our view—must always be the last resort. That said, the reality—however—is nothing will permanently change for the better in Iran unless the Islamic Republic of Iran is destroyed & replaced with a new governing body.
Achieving the last goal will be the hardest. Especially since Vice President JD Vance—during an interview today on Fox News—implied that regime change is not necessarily a stated Team Trump end goal.
***
‘Why now?’ is a question many are—fairly, in our view—asking across the U.S. as well as across Europe. Especially since—as widely reported—there didn’t appear to be an imminent Iranian threat be it Tehran building a nuke and/or developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the U.S. anytime soon.
The answer is relatively simple.
Iran was never going to change on its own. Plus—arguably—after the 12 Day War, Tehran was never weaker.
Waiting to attack would—likely, in our view—only cost many American lives in the future. Not just civilians but soldiers too.
The window of opportunity was now. Not just in terms of the Middle East but the role Iran plays as part of the Axis of Evil.
Iranian Shahed drones are being used against Ukraine. Tehran—still—provides 10% to 15% of China’s oil needs––oil that could be used to invade Taiwan in the not-too-distant future and/or to threaten other U.S. Indo-Pacific allies, including Japan. If the Islamic Republic of Iran falls, then it helps both Ukraine & Taiwan.
Plus, until now, Israel was able to largely contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions through hybrid attacks—including cyber, sabotage or assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists. That window was rapidly beginning to close as Iran began building new nuclear facilities deep underground––and impenetrable to Israeli bombs.
***
The road to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death arguably began on Oct. 7th, 2023. His killing on Sunday was not exactly the outcome Iranian & Hamas planners & enablers—including Russia as we argued at The Hill—of the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel had in mind.
It was—in fact—quite the opposite. In less than 29 months, Gaza lies in ruins, Hamas & Hezbollah have been significantly destroyed, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria collapsed, and now the 47-year-old Islamic Republic of Iran is teetering.
***
Iran did not help its war cause by striking back at U.S. bases in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia—then later Oman—with ballistic missiles & drones in retaliation; rather, they further isolated themselves from the Arab world.
The Gulf states expressed outrage—even outright condemned—the Iranian attacks in what The Hill’s Laura Kelly described as a “rare show of unity in pushing back against Tehran in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes against the country.”
Saudi Arabia—seen as the primary leader of the Arab nations—announced it would aid countries in repelling Iranian attacks.
***
Vance notwithstanding, Trump appears open to regime change. That means ensuring the U.S. sets conditions in Iran for that to happen.
To that end, in announcing the launch of major combat operations, Trump told Iranians that, “The hour of your freedom is at hand … When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”
***
Creating that window for Iranians will take time & it will require a sustained U.S. & Israeli joint military campaign. Trump acknowledged that on Sunday in an interview with The New York Times that combat operations will continue for “four to five weeks” if necessary – “until all U.S. objectives are achieved.”
***
That said, the enemy always gets a vote & the succeeding Iranian leadership has chosen to remain defiant. Therefore, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes must be sustained to succeed—and that will not happen if Trump stops to negotiate with Iran.
Iran needs the U.S. & Israel to stop attacking so as to break their momentum, to reset Iranian defenses, & allow the IRGC & its military time to recover from the initial shock of losing their leader.
***
The surviving leadership is committed to the track Khamenei set them on. They are not likely to submit to demands they firmly rejected in Geneva last week.
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, made that clear today on X, posting “that Iran has prepared itself for a long war.” Earlier, he stated that the Islamic Republic “will not negotiate with the U.S.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is just as defiant. In a Sunday interview with ABC News “This Week” anchor George Stephanopoulos, he proclaimed that, “We have lost some commanders … But another fact is that nothing has changed in our military capability. Our military is in place. They are capable enough to defend our country … they are more prepared and capable than [the] previous war before, [the] 12-day war, quality-wise, quantity-wise, they are in a better position.”
***
There’s our sign & all we need to know. Iran sees this as an existential war & they will not go quietly into the night.
***
Iran announced the formation of a temporary three-person leadership council to govern the country on Sunday. It includes—as we noted here yesterday—President Masoud Pezeshkian; the Head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei; and Alireza Arafi, a member of Iran’s Guardian Council and head of the Basij.
Yes, that Basij—the same volunteer militia loyal to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that brutally suppressed Iranian protesters. They contributed to the 32,000 Iranian protesters Trump said were killed.
***
The U.S. would be best served to finish what Trump started. Or at least Trump should listen to former-CENTCOM Commander, retired USMC Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.
In a Sunday op-ed for The New York Times, he penned that, “We can also seek to return to negotiations. If we do so, it should not be a dialogue of equals. It should be between the victor and the vanquished.
McKenzie continued saying, “We should require Tehran to accept an end to its nuclear program; limitations on ballistic, cruise and land-attack missiles; limits on proxy forces; and, lastly, a declaratory policy that recognizes Israel’s right to exist.”
He finished by saying, “I would prioritize Iranian political reform below any of these objectives, but it may not be possible to attain them without reordering the Iranian leadership. This may be easier now that Ayatollah Khamenei is no longer in charge.”
***
Plus, don’t forget. Israel gets a vote too.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was pretty blunt when he said the joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran were to “remove an existential threat.” Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and Alireza Arafi are part of that existential threat. Nothing has changed.
***
The services of Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner are no longer required. The only deal to be made now is one of transitioning the government to civilian control.
On that note, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi is prepared to lead a transitional government. He is probably the best choice for Iran – but also for the Middle East as a whole.
Netanyahu & Trump need to fill the leadership void quickly in order to avoid a civil war and the fracturing of the country. We saw this tragically happen in the former Yugoslavia & then again in Iraq.
***
As then-Secretary of State Colin Powell warned President George W. Bush prior to the 2003 Iraq invasion, “if you break it, you own it.”
Trump & Netanyahu are in the process of breaking the Islamic Republic of Iran. As we have said on many occasions the U.S. military is good at bringing down regimes, but Washington gets a failing grade at rebuilding them.
It’s naïve to believe the Iranian people can simply form a government on their own after 47 years of strict theocratic Islamic rule. The 1970s may want its Iran back, but they don’t know how to do it. This is on the same level as replacing Ba’ath Party rule in Iraq and Nazi Party rule in Germany. It won’t be easy or quick.
This will require a regional solution––one that requires a Western blend with the support of the Ummah.
***
UKRAINE UPDATE
Interestingly, late tonight, Russia announced that it was in its interests to continue peace negotiations with Ukraine. Perhaps—and we are only guessing—Russian President Vladimir Putin is beginning to realize that Russia is no match for U.S. military power & doesn’t want to see Ukraine get even more advanced U.S. weaponry.
Plus, since Elon Musk—who we’ve criticized in the past—turned off Russia’s use of Starlink, Russia on a net basis has been losing territory. Credit where credit is due: bravo to Musk & his team.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists that in Kyiv’s view, Putin does not “have the capability” to seize the remainder of the Donbas. Translation: Zelensky isn’t going to give Putin what his military can’t achieve.
Lastly, Ukraine is about to prove “indispensable” to Trump’s war effort in Iran. Both the U.S. & its allies in the region are struggling to interdict Iranian Shahed drones. Suddenly—and thankfully—Zelensky has some new cards to play with Team Trump.
***
Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.