INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.01.2026
March 1st, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 2 of ongoing U.S. & Israeli military operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
War—at the tip of the spear—is bloody & this war is no exception. Three U.S. Army soldiers stationed in Kuwait were killed. Godspeed to their souls & peace to their families. Five others were reported—their location is unknown—as being “seriously wounded.”
Photo credit: The Telegraph. Larijani (left) & Khamenei.
It is fast-devolving into a regional conflict. Hezbollah has launched rocket attacks in northern Israel, and Jerusalem in response began bombing the militia group’s positions in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River.
Israel—reportedly—also killed Mohammad Raad, the head of Hezbollah’s political party in Lebanon’s parliament. As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) noted earlier this evening, Jerusalem is prepared to fight a multi-front war.
In our view—while it complicates ongoing U.S. & Israeli military strikes in Iran— Hezbollah’s kinetic involvement will not appreciably impact them. Thus far, there are no indications that U.S. forces are operating in southern Lebanon.
That could change given the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is operating in eastern Mediterranean waters near Haifa in northern Israel. Meanwhile, Adel Nasar—Lebanon’s Minister of Justice—has vowed to arrest any Hezbollah fighters launching rockets at Israeli forces or territories.
Hezbollah is symptomatic of Iran’s decision to turn the conflict into a regional war. Iranian forces have now attacked targets in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & the United Arab Emirates.
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Thus far––as a war strategy––it has backfired. Tehran, undoubtedly, believed that doing so would cause the Arab world—especially the Gulf States—to pressure the U.S. into halting military operations against Iran.
Instead—after civilian apartment buildings, hotels & even an airport were hit by Iranian drones—the Arab world has condemned Iran. Instead of lobbying the U.S. for peace, they are now determined to defend themselves against Tehran.
To that end, Iran has foolishly proven that its regime represents a very clear & present danger to the Middle East. Not just in terms of immediate strikes but also the potential for future Iranian military strikes.
As such, the Arab world’s calculus has changed. They now are more apt to support regime change in Iran.
Nonetheless, Iran hasn’t gotten that message yet. Abbas Araghchi—Iran’s foreign minister—was on the U.S. media circuit Sunday morning bemoaning that the Arab world wasn’t pressuring the U.S. to stop.
Indeed—it would be laughable if this were not war—Araghchi seemed perplexed as to why Iran’s strategy of cowing Arab states wasn’t working. As it is turning out, attacking the friends of your enemies simply made more enemies for Tehran.
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Earlier today, Trump fueled speculation that he was open to renewing negotiations with Iran—if & when they could find an Iranian leader who had survived the first two days of the U.S.-Israeli decapitation strikes.
Trump told The Atlantic—a U.S.-based online publication—that, “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them.”
Maybe, maybe not.
Late this evening, Ali Larijani—who many analysts believe, at least for now, is effectively in control in Iran—posted on X that, “We will not negotiate with the United States.” Certainly, it could be a face-saving post.
Nonetheless, Larijani is a hardliner. He was entrusted by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—the Iranian Supreme Leader who was killed yesterday in his compound in Tehran by Israeli air strikes—to ensure the regime’s survival.
To that end, Larijani already has proven how ruthless he is willing to be to achieve his assigned goals. Since December—as we noted here yesterday—he was the primary coordinator of the crackdowns on Bazaar street protesters that have killed thousands, if not tens of thousands of Iranians since December 28th.
In our view, Team Trump must not allow Larijani to be the last man standing in Iran. If he emerges as the permanent leader—even if as just the power behind a Shia cleric who would nominally be the next Supreme Leader—then nothing will have been achieved by going to war with Iran save guaranteeing a rinse & repeat.
If he survives, Larijani will—at some future point—reconstitute Iran’s nuclear & ballistic missile programs.
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For now, Ali Reza Arafi, a Shia cleric & close ally of the now deceased Khamenei, has been appointed as the third member of Iran’s Leadership Council. He will serve—on an interim basis—alongside President Masoud Pezeshkian & Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei.
Photo credit: Reuters. Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei (left), Pezeshkian (center) & Arafi. Meeting at an undisclosed location after Khamenei’s death.
If the regime survives that long, then the Assembly of Experts—a panel comprised of 88 clerics—will choose a new Supreme Leader. Good luck with that meeting. Especially given that Israel & the U.S.—after less than two days of operations in Iran—have secured air superiority over the skies of Tehran.
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In our view, the U.S. cannot stop now until true regime change is effected & Iran’s navy and nuclear & ballistic missile programs are completely destroyed. For sure, blessed be the peacemakers—in this case the diplomats—but after 47 years of failed diplomacy, now is not the time to return to it.
Yes, China is watching. Yes, Washington’s safeguarding Taiwan by ensuring the U.S. maintains adequate weapons & munitions is paramount.
That said, consider what Chinese President Xi Jinping is seeing. The U.S.—arguably with its hands tied behind its back because of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s decision to deny the U.S. use of Diego Garcia—is pulling off a masterclass in how to systematically destroy a standing army & navy.
Offense is sometimes your best defense. Xi might yet gamble—however, in our view, we doubt it—but not before he considers what he might be up against in terms of U.S. military power & tactics.
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Thus far—as of March 1st, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)—the joint U.S.-Israeli operation “has struck over 2,000 targets in Iran.” The ISW also assesses that Iran is likely struggling to “coordinate large-scale attacks.”
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
The IDF announced on Sunday that it was starting to focus on attacking regime targets in Tehran & other major cities across Iran. The ISW map above details many of those strikes including ones against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters, Basij headquarters, Law Enforcement Command headquarters & a communications complex.
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Iran—for its part—primarily focused on hit targets in Israel & U.S. bases across the Middle East. Intentionally or not—and in our view, they are intentional—Tehran has also struck civilian targets in those countries.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
For now—aside from Israel—as noted by the ISW in the above map, “Iran has fired hundreds of drones and missiles targeting the UAE, which is likely more than Iran has targeted any other Gulf country in this conflict.”
Even Oman—somewhat surprisingly, given its mediator role between the U.S. & Iran—was hit by an Iranian strike. Two drones reportedly targeted the country’s Duqm commercial port. Iran isn’t even sparing its friends in the region from its wrath.
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Iran’s navy is a primary U.S. target. Trump declared on X earlier today that, “I have just been informed that we have destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships, some of them relatively large and important. We are going after the rest — They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also!”
No word—yet—on whether Iran’s newest signals intelligence (SIGINT) vessel the IRINS Zagros (H313) is one of the ships sunk. If it isn’t, it soon will be. That said, given its role, it was likely one of the first targets.
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We are tracking reports that an Iranian school for girls was partially destroyed in the southern city of Minab. Araghchi implied in a post on X yesterday that either the U.S. or Israel deliberately attacked the school. Early Iranian state-controlled reports indicate that dozens—perhaps as many as 115—were killed.
Further confirmation is needed.
That said, any loss of life—especially kids—is terrible. However, if it was the U.S. or Israel, we are certain it wasn’t intentional.
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As we wrap this special weekend edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, Larijani has gone on a tweet rage on X. He began by saying, “TRUMP HAS BETRAYED “AMERICA FIRST” TO ADOPT “ISRAEL FIRST.”
Larijani then posted, “Trump’s wishful thinking has dragged the whole region into an unnecessarily war and now he is rightly worried about more American casualties. It is indeed very sad that he is sacrificing American treasure and blood to advance Netanyahu’s illegitimate expansionist ambitions.”
Translation. Larijani is panicking. He is searching for external forces to pressure Washington & Jerusalem into ending military operations in Iran.
That isn’t going to work. That said, bravo to Larijani. He just telegraphed to us that Iran knows it is in deep, deep trouble.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
What is the strategic objective?
Thank you Mark ! Greetings from Belgium.