INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.23.2026
January 23rd, 2026
Greetings! It is cold—damn cold!—this Friday night in much of the U.S. It is also cold in Ukraine. As we begin to write this, it is 15° F in Kyiv.
16° was the high.
Yet, unlike here, Kyiv is under a massive attack of Russian drones & ballistic missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin—as he has done since 2022—is once again weaponizing winter & he is intentionally doing it against Ukrainian civilians.
Photo credit: Andrew Kravchenko / AFP. A Ukrainian father adjusts an LED light for his 2-year-old daughter last week in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Putin’s strategy won’t work—he’s tried it every year of the war—but it is creating a humanitarian crisis. Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was forced to declare a state of emergency in the country’s energy sector.
Two days ago, it became clear just how dire it has become. Power was knocked out to 5,635 high-rise apartment towers on January 21st. Several days later, 4,000 were still without electricity & heating.
Kyiv’s Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that, based on mobile phone records, upwards of 600,000 people—men, women & children—were without power. Russia’s intentional attacks on Kyiv’s power grid are affecting 1 out of 5 residents.
Rolling outages were the norm. Now, for far too many in Kyiv, no power for days is becoming the new normal this winter.
Tonight’s attack—like many others before it—comes on the heels of Putin’s meeting with Team Trump. Thursday night, Putin met with Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner at the Kremlin for three hours.
Earlier today, for the first time, Ukraine, Russia & the U.S. held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates. Peace was the topic, but peace is hardly what is on Putin’s mind.
Tonight’s attack is proof enough of that.
The talks continue tomorrow. We are doubtful they lead to anything meaningful. The Donbas—especially Ukraine’s key defensive belt-lines there that protect Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa & Kyiv from Russian mechanized advances—remains the chief obstacle to reaching any lasting peace settlement.
Putin is insisting Kyiv cede that strategic territory to Moscow. Zelensky is saying he can only do that if a referendum approves it.
Ukrainians are not stupid. They are not going to—as we’ve said many times—willingly commit national suicide by capitulating to Russia.
Meanwhile, Europe must do more to blunt Putin’s weaponization of winter. Sending hundreds more generators is a start. But the European Union must—as Zelensky implored them to do at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland—do far more.
Photo credit: World Economic Forum / Ciaran McCrickard. Zelensky speaking at Davos on January 23rd, 2026.
Putin’s weaponization of winter can only be stopped if a coalition of the European willing finally turns into a coalition of the doing. They could achieve that by immediately implementing a no-fly zone in Western Ukraine.
It’s getting darker & colder in Ukraine. Europe must act.
***
There is a lot more going on around the world. Tensions are rising in the Middle East. The U.S. & Canada are spatting. Plus, our Spidey sense—credit our first beloved editor Sandy T. for accusing us of having one!—is telling us China is being too quiet of late.
Let’s get started covering those stories & more!
***
NORTH AMERICA
Greenland has settled down for now. Trump, wisely as we argued at The Hill, came in from the cold. Far more can be achieved working with allies versus threatening—directly or indirectly—to invade them.
Yes, differences remain. Denmark made it clear they had not agreed to relinquish any sovereignty as reported by The New York Times. Plus, earlier today, Trump admitted that it remains a work in progress.
Yet all is not well in North America. Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney continue throwing verbal elbows at each other.
During a speech at Davos, he argued that because of Trump, a “rupture” had occurred in the global order & that as a result, “middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu.”
Trump took exception to that, saying “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, before you make your statements.” Carney fired back reminding Trump that “Canada thrives because we are Canadian.”
Got it.
The two leaders do not like each other. But just as the Greenland brouhaha distracted from the war in Ukraine, Carney needs to bear in mind that deepening the rift between the U.S. & Canada could have consequences for Taiwan—one of those middle powers Carney is presumably hoping to unite.
Why?
Carney is signaling his willingness to turn to Beijing. Last week, he struck a new trade deal in China.
Helping Beijing—especially if its primary aim is simply to lash out at Trump—is self-defeating in the long run. Chiefly, because helping China risks hurting Taiwan. Canada trading with China is one thing.
Coddling up to Chinese President Xi Jinping is quite another. Notably, it likely won’t work. As Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, was quoted as saying in The Hill, if Quebec doubled its exports to China by 2030, “that still only means that 10 percent of Canadian exports would go to China.”
It’s time for Carney to come in from the cold. Trump has his part to play too. Enough talk of Canada being the 51st state.
Elsewhere, late tonight, the Department of Defense released its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS). We will review it more in-depth next week. For now, here are the major highlights.
The NDS calls for the U.S. to maintain a favorable military balance of power with China. It narrowly views Russia as largely a “persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern members.” It concludes that Iran is “intent on reconstituting its conventional military forces” while leaving “open the possibility that they will try again to obtain a nuclear weapon.” The NDS also notes that North Korea’s “nuclear forces are increasingly capable of threatening the U.S.”
More next week but our first impressions are that it significantly underplays the threats China, Russia & other Axis of Evil allies present to the U.S. For example, Iran isn’t going to consider trying again to build a nuke. They will—if left militarily unchecked—do just that. It would be highly naïve to think otherwise.
***
SOUTH AMERICA
Earlier today, U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) announced that Joint Task Force Southern Spear carried out a kinetic strike against a purported narco-trafficking boat. Two men were killed. One survived.
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EUROPE
NATO countries—understandably—are outraged by Trump’s comments regarding the U.S. never needing its allies. The President poured even more salt in an already deep wound by claiming that alliance members stayed “a little off the front lines in Afghanistan.”
Needless to say—and we say this apolitically—this was a foolish unforced error by Trump. The only time Article 5—NATO’s collective defense provision—was ever invoked was after the 9/11 attacks in 2001.
While 2,200+ Americans were killed in Afghanistan, 475 British, 150 Canadian, 90 French & 44 Danish troops died as well—and they died, in part, defending the U.S., our soldiers, citizens & national interests from Al Qaeda.
Photo credit: Matt Cardy / Getty. Burial procession of eight bodies of British soldiers on July 14th, 2009. Two were only 18-years-old.
Trump must apologize. The honor & memory of those troops are at stake. So too the emotions of their surviving families.
***
MIDDLE EAST
Iran continues to be a tinderbox. For now, it appears most of the protests have subsided. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has not been able to confirm any new protest—that is of a sizable nature—since January 19th.
The ISW also reported late this evening that Iran, according to the IRGC, intends to begin restoring “international internet access nationwide over the next 24 hours.” If so, then it suggests the regime believes it now has the upper hand.
In another sign that is likely the case, there are new reports that “Iran’s security forces are raiding hospitals and arresting wounded suspected protesters—including actors and athletes—in the nation’s latest crackdown on the anti-government movement.”
For now, at least, if U.S. help was indeed on its way, it has come too late. Whether it yet comes remains to be determined.
Initially the delay was the simple reality that the U.S. did not have sufficient military assets in the region when the protests began on December 28th. As we detailed here on Wednesday, those assets are now surging to the Mideast.
Now, there might be a new factor at play. Notably, the Persian service for the Voice of America (VOA), according to reporting by Laura Kelly at The Hill, “is censoring coverage of Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who played a central role in stirring up antigovernment protests that rocked the country earlier this month.”
It begs the question whether or not Team Trump believes Pahlavi is capable of taking control of Iran should the regime fall. If not Pahlavi, it isn’t clear who could step up in that event. Some analysts in Israel are arguing the military is growing in power.
Time will tell. Meanwhile, as Jennifer Griffin reported at Fox News, the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is still days out from being “on station” in the Gulf of Oman and “within striking distance of Iran.”
Tehran claims it is ready. Reuters quoted a senior Iranian official today as saying any U.S. strike on Iran will be treated “as an all-out war against us.”
Elsewhere in the Mideast—and this is significant—the U.S., according to reporting in The Wall Street Journal, “is considering a complete withdrawal of American troops from Syria.” The U.S. has roughly 1,000 troops in the country.
Last weekend, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa launched a “lightning offensive” against the U.S.-backed Syrian Defense Forces (SDF). The Kurdish militia––a key partner in the U.S. war against ISIS––quickly collapsed as a result & signed a ceasefire agreement.
The pact calls for SDF leadership to be integrated into al-Sharaa’s government, Tom Barrack, Trump’s special envoy for Syria, was quoted as saying, “This agreement and cease-fire represent a pivotal inflection point, where former adversaries embrace partnership over division.”
The SDF was guarding upwards of 9,000 ISIS fighters being held. Their ultimate fate is not yet clear.
***
INDO-PACIFIC
Going forward, we intend to introduce a new feature to our INTREP360 Intelligence Reports. From time to time—in a Pentagon fashion—we will “Red Game” various scenarios to see if we can detect or warn against a potential threat in the making.
When we do, we will clearly state that it is a “Red Game.” To be clear, these exercises are only intended as “what ifs.” They are not assessments or predictions.
For example, China’s responses to recent U.S. actions have been largely muted. Be it in Venezuela or Trump’s machinations in Greenland.
Why?
Could it be that Beijing is sitting back & waiting to see if the U.S. gets dragged into a shooting war in Iran? One that isn’t immediately decisive.
If that happens, might Xi—seeing the U.S. stretched in the Caribbean & the Mideast—decide that now would be his opportune moment to move on Taiwan?
Might Xi gamble Team Trump wouldn’t act?
Either a total blockade or full-scale military action?
After all, the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is departing the Indo-Pacific en route to Iran. While that will strengthen the U.S. in the Mideast, it significantly drains U.S. assets in & around Taiwan.
This is just an example. A teaser, if you will, for special editions of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report to come.
***
Space is tight tonight word-count wise as we close but we wanted to highlight a late-breaking ISW update. They continue to assess that Putin wants more than just the Donbas. They want a reset of NATO to 1997.
Putin, however, might be making a strategic mistake. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, recently said that if “Ukraine gets through this winter, January, February, and you get into March and April, the advantage accrues to …Ukraine, not to Russia.”
If so, it could be a really hot summer for Putin.
***
Thank you for reading! We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
I particularly like your flagging of potential Chinese action against Taiwan. I suspect it will start with a blockade and then, when someone tries to break it, shots will be heard. Then what?