INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.21.2026
January 21st, 2026
Greetings! Greenland—clearly—was the story today in Davos, Switzerland. It still is. That said, it is Iran that is catching our eye, & that is why we are penning this special edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report.
Fear not. Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill, we cover today’s Greenland developments in Davos.
It goes live at 7 AM ET.
Iran is emerging from a Twilight Zone. Purgatory would be another way of putting it. Deliverance—however—is what’s likely coming.
As we kept one eye on Davos today, we couldn’t help but track the ongoing rapid buildup of U.S. air, land, & sea forces in the Mideast.
Photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Khamenei speaks in Tehran on January 17th, 2026.
It is reaching a tipping point. Similar to when we pointed out here on New Year’s Eve 2025 that the “size and scale of the array of U.S. weapons & capabilities is far beyond what now is needed for messaging to Maduro.”
Three days later Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was shackled & on a plane headed to New York.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & his thugs should take heed. It is highly likely that they are at the same inflection point.
Let’s get started examining why.
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Despite the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) supercarrier and its strike group continuing to sail toward the Persian Gulf, Iranian leadership is becoming more vocal––indeed, even outlandishly bold.
Photo credit: Mass Communication Specialist Third Class Lake Fultz/US Navy. USS Abraham Lincoln in the Pacific. 2021.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, warned Tuesday in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Tehran was prepared to “[fire] back with everything we have” if Team Trump orders U.S. military strikes in the days ahead.
Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff, warned against targeting Khamenei. His threat was fierier. Shekarchi said that if Trump targets Khamenei not only will Iran “cut [off that] hand but also we will set fire to their world.”
Suffice it to say, that’s big talk. It was said to the U.S.; however, it was aimed at the Gulf States—especially Qatar & Saudi Arabia.
Tehran’s ‘break glass’ last-ditch defense option is to conduct the mother of all battles against its fellow oil producing states in the Mideast. In that event, Iran would target oil rigs, pipelines & port facilities.
The global economic cost would be huge. Presently, 30% of the world’s oil produced is in the Middle East––and it holds half of the earth’s known oil reserves.
Khamenei, if threatened, likely will go there. It is why, lacking decisive options earlier this month—meaning regime-ending type options—that Team Trump postponed military strikes against Iran in support of the Iranian street protests.
It is also why USS Abraham Lincoln is steaming as fast as it can to the Persian Gulf. Reportedly, the strike group turned off their transponders & are currently operating in ‘dark navigation’ mode.
Credit: @MarineTraffic. USS Abraham Lincoln transiting from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean.
The strike force is making good speed. On January 18th, it was sighted passing through the narrow Strait of Malacca—a 560-mile-long passage of water separating the Pacific Ocean from the Indian Ocean.
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Meanwhile, Tehran is fighting back. Not directly, but indirectly. Iran may have promised President Trump not to execute detained protesters, but they did not say anything about targeting U.S. allies in the region.
Per Trey Yingst, the chief foreign correspondent for Fox News, the Kurdistan Freedom Party in Iran said their military wing in Iraq came under fire overnight in a drone attack launched by the Iranian regime.
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Khamenei is likely misreading Trump. The U.S. military buildup is continuing, and its messaging is clearly aimed at Khamenei himself.
There are now reports that a second carrier and strike group could be on the way. The USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) departed her homeport of Naval Station Norfolk & is operating in the Atlantic Ocean bound for Europe.
That’s just the U.S. Navy assets. The U.S. is also rapidly building up air assets in the region. There are now at least three F-15 Strike Eagle squadrons operating in Jordan—or as many as 72 F-15s & accompanying KC-135 air-to-air refueling tankers.
Photo credit: United States Air Force. F-15 Strike Eagle taxis at a base in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in the Mideast.
Other air assets include F-16 Fighting Falcons & A-10 Thunderbolt II attack planes. Significantly, there has been an uptick in United States Air Force C-17A Globemasters flights between Ramstein, Spangdahlem, & Lakenheath in Europe and the Al-Udeid & Muwaffaq Salti air bases in the Middle East.
Earlier this week, The Jerusalem Post reported that U.S. cargo planes were landing at the U.S. air base in Diego Garcia. That is potentially significant as well if they are carrying munitions for B-2 Stealth Bombers & B-52 Bombers (both have operated from the strategic Indian Ocean island in the past against Iran).
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Israel is increasingly acting as if it believes the U.S. is preparing to strike Iran. Earlier this week, Jerusalem raised its alert level.
Israel’s diplomats are sending stern public warning signals to Tehran. Israel’s United Nations Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters, “We are in high readiness. We are ready with our defense capability, and we’re ready with our offensive capabilities. We would advise Iran not to test our capabilities.”
He hinted at possible Israeli action in the event Trump decides to attack Iran by saying that “Israel knows where Iran keeps their ballistic missiles.”
Thus far, at least publicly, Israel is remaining noncommittal. Since December 28th—the day the Iranian protests began in the bazaars—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has largely adopted a strategy of “strategic silence.”
Jerusalem, for now hasn’t wanted to get in front of the protesters fearing Israel involvement could backfire.
Plus, the Israel Defense Forces wanted more time to prepare for any retaliatory drone & ballistic missile strikes Khamenei might launch at Israel should Trump attack Iran—especially given concerns Iran might use mustard gas.
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We’ve never been in the prediction game. Chiefly, because war is not a game. It’s deadly, bloody & always should be the last option.
Instead, we raise red flags & that is what we are doing here. Building U.S. combat power takes time, but once in place has devastating consequences for its victim. Regime change may be closer than Iran wants to believe.
Time will tell if we got it right. But in the meantime, it wouldn’t hurt to keep your cars filled with gas lest any outbreak leads to a spike in oil prices.
If war breaks out, it likely won’t be a one & done like strike in Venezuela on January 3rd or against Iran last June.
Iran is a large country & Khamenei’s army is intact. Tehran can & likely will fight back. Dictatorships rarely ever die easily.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.