INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.30.2026
April 30th, 2026
Greetings!
Forgive yet again the 1960s TV reference — Mark is slowly watching the original “Lost in Space” series with his brother who is recovering from knee replacement surgery — but it more than fits here. Something, as the Robot said frequently, ‘does not compute’ in Iran.
Earlier today, President Donald Trump — for the umpteenth time we’ve lost count — said that Iran “wants to make a deal badly.”
AI image credit: Grok. Graphic depicting a dead or alive Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran being controlled by an IRGC puppeteer.
Really?
Because that is not what Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei posted on X today — or whoever is posting for him as there is still no proof of life. Quite the opposite, he — or his ghost — boasted that, “The brilliant future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without the U.S where the progress, comfort, and prosperity of its nations are served.”
That doesn’t sound like someone who wants a deal — let alone someone who wants “to make a deal badly.”
Khamenei continued, writing that, Iran’s spiritual, scientific, industrial & technological capacities from nano & biotechnology to nuclear & missile [are] national assets.”
That doesn’t sound like a country that is willing to give up its nukes, ballistic missiles or its Axis of Resistance proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis (we assess that the word ‘spiritual’ is referring to Iran’s proxies).
So, just who is Trump talking to in Iran? And why did he admit today in the Oval Office that “We have a problem because nobody knows for sure who the leaders are?” Especially since that is highly contradictory?
Trump can’t on the one hand assert Iran wants to make a deal, while on the other hand confess that he has no idea of who is in charge of Iran & in a position to make a deal with the U.S.
Let’s get started sorting it out!
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MOJATABA IS A PUPPET
Dead or alive, one thing is clear about Mojtaba Khamenei. He is a puppet. Maj. Gen. Ahmed Vahidi — the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — is his puppet master or Geppetto in Pinocchio terms.
His words today — clearly an IRGC hardliner’s manifesto, if you will — were not his own. Khamenei may or may not agree with them — if he is alive conscious, we suspect he does — but that doesn’t matter.
The words are Vahidi’s and likely those of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council.
We highly doubt — however, we could be wrong — that Team Trump, including Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, is talking to either of them.
Instead, Vahidi & Zolghadr — via a dead or alive Khamenei — is talking AT Trump and his negotiating team. Thus, we know who really is talking for Iran & its hardline IRGC faction, however, that is not the same as who in Iran is really talking to Trump.
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ABBAS ARAGHCHI, THE MAN OF A THOUSAND FACES?
Forgive us again. Lately, we’ve hit you up with a lot of movie & music references. Yet — once again — it fits too well here.
Increasingly, Abbas Araghchi — Iran’s ubiquitous foreign minister — is reminding us of Lon Chaney, the silent movie star of the 1920s. Chaney was known as “The man of a thousand faces” of his innovative ability to use make-up to transform him into characters as diverse as The Hunchback of Notre Dame & The Phantom of the Opera.
Photo credit: Khaled Elfiqi / AP. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in an undated photograph.
Initially, Araghchi — the purported pragmatist of the bunch — appeared to be siding with the moderates. Not that anyone in the regime are true moderates. They are all cold-blooded killers as evidenced by the brutal crackdowns on the Iranian street protesters that began in late December & led to, by some accounts, to as many as 40,000 deaths.
Today, however, Iran International reported that Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s powerless president, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Secretary of the country’s parliament, are seeking his ouster from his position as being the lead negotiator with the U.S.
Why?
According to the report, they “believe Araghchi has in recent weeks acted less as a cabinet minister tasked with implementing government policy and more as an aide to Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards.” Pezeshkian — reportedly — has threatened to fire Araghchi if he keeps taking Vahidi’s orders and not first informing him & Ghalibaf.
So, for our purposes here, it appears that while Trump may be talking to Araghchi, he is in reality now talking — wittingly or not; we just do not know — to Vahidi & Zolghadr. If not, who does Trump think he’s talking to using Araghchi as a conduit?
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GHALIBAF VERSUS SAEED JALILI
Is Ghalibaf — and by extension Pezeshkian — still trying to talk to Team Trump? Is he the one that wants to “make a deal badly?”
Up until last week, Ghalibaf had been in charge of negotiations in Islamabad. He is the one who led the negotiations with Vice President JD Vance that ended without an agreement and Team Trump abruptly returning to Washington, D.C.
Then — according to Iran International — a civil war of sorts broke out in the Iranian parliament between Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili.
Jalili leads a political faction known as the Stability Front — Paydari in Farsi — and has in effect already formed a shadow government as he plots to succeed Ghalibaf as the secretary of Iran’s parliament.
Photo credit: Majid Saeedi / Getty. Saeed Jalili (left), the leader of The Stability Front faction in Iran’s parliament.
The Stability Front is as hardline as it gets in Iran. Especially so when it comes to the nuclear file. Reportedly — and again, we are relying on Iran International — Ghalibaf was forced to leave the negotiating team in Islamabad because of his willingness to negotiate with the U.S. over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program & the removal of 440.9 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium which is just short of weapons grade.
Ghalibaf may be trying to cling to power — or perhaps he is even a willing participant in some form of Kabuki theater to deceive Trump into thinking he is a peace partner as a means to buy the IRGC time to regroup — but Washington needs to understand he will not succeed. While Ghalibaf had the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s blessing, Vahidi & Zolghadr have the dead Supreme Leader’s guns.
Jalili, if he does win out — as it appears he shall — will be, as a fellow ultraconservative, much more closely aligned with the IRGC.
Trump, if he thinks he is talking to Iran’s parliament via Ghalibaf, may in reality be talking to Jalili who in turn is taking orders from Vahidi & Zolghadr.
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VAHIDI IS THE LEADER OF IRAN
We can — with great confidence — assess that Vahidi is the de facto leader of Iran. We highly suspect Trump knows that as well.
Photo credit: Grok. Trump (left), Maj. Gen. Ahmed Vahidi (right), the head of the IRGC.
If he does, Trump is likely trying to give Ghalibaf one last chance to put together a coalition that is willing to cut a deal with the U.S. on Trump’s terms –– no nuclear enrichment, ceasing support for the IRGC funded proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah & the Houthis, ending its offensive ballistic missile program, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Spoiler. It won’t work. Mojtaba Khamenei’s posts on X today made that sufficiently clear. The IRGC — at least as long as Vahidi is in charge of it & is backed by Jalili in parliament — is not going to give into Trump’s redlines.
***
THE FINAL BLOW
Earlier this evening, Fox News report that Adm. Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Central Command, briefed Trump earlier today on what is being described as a “final blow” set of military targets against Iran.
If ordered, reportedly, it would include destroying Iran’s remaining military capacity, missile stockpiles, facilities, and also entail targeting Vahidi & other key IRGC leadership (and perhaps Jalili as well).
Less clear is how the “final blow” would reopen the Strait of Hormuz or ensure the retrieval of Iran’s stockpiles of low- and highly enriched uranium.
Stay tuned and keep your gas tank filled.
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ICYMI #1
Earlier today, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM ET national security column in The Hill, we focused on the messages King Charles III kept sending — especially on Ukraine & NATO — President Trump throughout his Joint Address to Congress & during his speech at the State Dinner Tuesday night.
Photo credit: Alex Brandon / AP. King Charles III (left) and President Donald Trump toasting at the White House on April 28th, 2026.
It is indeed a tale of two very different kinds of kings. One real, the other contrived.
You can read it here.
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ICYMI #2
Mark was on Al Qahera News earlier today. The Middle East — like much of the U.S. & the world — continues to be confused by Trump’s words versus his actions. Mark tried to put it into perspective reminding yet again to focus on Trump’s actions.
Mark also pointed out that while Iran can buy some time using rail and over-the-ground shipments of oil to Pakistan & China, it won’t be enough time to alleviate short- and long-term damage to its oil wells. We wrote about that ticking bomb here on Monday.
You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
The president needs to realize we have passed the point of a “impasse “with the current leadership in Iran. .