INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.27.2026
April 27th, 2026
Greetings!
The Axis of Evil — or rather the losing half of it — held a summit today in St. Petersburg. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library.
Photo credit: Dmitri Lovetsky / The Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) greets Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
Araghchi was seeking Russia’s active partnership in bringing an end to the war in Iran that began on February 28th. Instead, he got platitudes. Putin, in greeting Araghchi, observed “We see how courageously and heroically the Iranian people are fighting for their independence and sovereignty.”
That’s rich coming from the Russian president who is actively trying — but failing — to crush the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine.
Platitudes — however — are all that Putin largely has to give. As we argued here on Friday, Russia is losing in Ukraine & as we observed here last Thursday, the Islamic Republic of Iran is fast running out of time.
In essence — in our view — Araghchi & Putin’s well-publicized meeting was nothing more than a loser’s convention. Indeed, perhaps unwittingly, Putin revealed just how little the Kremlin is capable of doing right now for his Axis of Evil ally when he told Araghchi, “You are well aware of our position.”
No doubt, Putin was overtly referring — as he said — to helping to ensure “peace is achieved as quickly as possible.” However, in reality, given Moscow’s accumulating losses on the frontlines of Ukraine & its own economic setbacks as the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) keep pummeling Russia’s oil & energy export sector, Putin essentially was telling Araghchi that all he could do was to offer lip service.
In other words, Russia is in no ‘position’ to help Iran. Nor is Iran in any position to help Russia other than returning the platitudes.
Conjuring up Mojtaba Khamenei — Iran’s purported new Supreme Leader who may or may not be dead — Araghchi told Putin that he had been instructed to “confirm that Iran-Russia relations are regarded by us as a strategic partnership.”
Some partnership. Thus far, all it has achieved — beyond senseless death & destruction to its own people and the innocent citizens & soldiers of other countries — is to rack up military, diplomatic & economic losses.
Perhaps, instead of the Axis of Evil, the Iranian-Russian partnership going forward should be known as the Axis of Losing.
Let’s get started understanding just exactly how badly Iran is losing, despite its claims and those of talking heads otherwise.
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TANK TOPS
Team Tehran — due to the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian seaports in the western & southern parts of the country — is nearing what is known in the oil industry as “tank tops.” That is when Iran will “run out of room to store the oil it is pumping out of the ground.”
There are signs it is reaching criticality.
Kharg Island — which accounts for 90% of Iran’s global oil exports — is fast running out of reservoir room. Iran, as a result, is seeking floating alternatives. The growing desperation is so great that Iran is now using a deactivated 30-year-old oil tanker — known as the Nasha — to store oil offshore.
Tehran, according to The Wall Street Journal, is also starting to use “containers and ‘junk storage’ — disused tanks in poor condition — in the southern oil hubs of Ahvaz and Asaluyeh.” Likewise, Iran is also seeking to export oil to China by rail as a means of alleviating its growing oil storage crisis.
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SO WHY NOT STOP PUMPING?
It’s due to basic geology. As Yekkirala Akshitha points out, if Tehran is forced to shut in its wells, “Iran’s carbonate reservoir formations face simultaneous damage: water coning, fines migration into pore throats, formation compaction, and clay swelling.”
If that cascading effect occurs, then it is estimated that Iran would lose between 300,000 and 500,000 barrels per day in “permanent capacity loss.” The potential damage to the Islamic Republic of Iran & its oil economy is not just measured in days, but months & years.
Nor — as Kpler notes — can Iran “implement production cuts across its upstream system. The structure of its reservoirs, combined with decades of sanctions-driven underinvestment, forces a highly selective shut-in strategy.”
To date, through past crises, Tehran has managed the shut-in of its oil wells using a rotating basis. However, that option, given declining Iranian oil storage & offloading capacity, is rapidly going away.
If that happens, then “supply losses will be uneven across blends, likely to affect Iran Light more, and potentially irreversible, as reservoir constraints force selective shut-ins in mature carbonate fields.”
That’s why Ahmed Vahidi — the chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — is caught between a rock and a hard place. Trump’s blockade is not just threatening Iran’s short-term revenue — the IRGC’s lifeline — but its post-war revenue as well.
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CRYING UNCLE?
More than anything, Iran’s growing oil storage shortage is why Vahidi is desperately trying to convince Team Trump to negotiate an end to the blockade in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Vahidi — whether he realizes it or not — is crying uncle. He might not fully understand the geology behind Iran’s looming economic disaster; however, he readily gets it that the loss of revenue will make it difficult — if not impossible without Russian or Chinese help — to pay the IRGC & the Basij, its street enforcers.
Thus, that is why Araghchi floated his new proposal to Team Trump as reported today by Barak Ravid for Axios to end the war. Except there is just one catch — and it’s a big one. The U.S. must postpone any negotiations about ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program — especially its enrichment capabilities — until the future.
That — as Mark argued on Al Qahera today — is a non-starter for Washington. If the White House agrees to that, then it will be Trump who is perceived as crying uncle.
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TRUMP DOESN’T LOVE IT
Credit — we guess — the Iranians for trying to fool Trump into a bad deal. Thankfully, however, it was reported later in the day that Trump “doesn’t love the proposal,” according to an unnamed U.S. official.
Especially since it failed to address Iran’s nukes. Pakistan was hopeful this approach might bridge the gap.
However, this is not the way to do it. The U.S. — if the White House were foolish enough to bite — would lose all leverage over Vahidi.
We can’t see Trump — whether you like him or not — doing that. He has made it clear ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program is his number one war goal.
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IRAN IS LOSING, HOWEVER …
Tehran is losing. However, Vahidi is nowhere near capitulating yet to Team Trump. Iran’s economy — for him — is a means to an end. Plus, preserving Iran’s nuclear weapons program, ballistic missile & drone programs, and continuing its training, funding & support of its Axis of Resistance proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, & the Houthis — are all integral to achieving the IRGC’s regime goals.
To that end, we still assess that Vahidi is willing to burn it all down — or most of it — to try and ensure regime survival.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio — albeit taking a different religious path to get there today — said as much today on Fox News. Likely referring to Vahidi and Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Rubio said, “Unfortunately, the hardliners with an apocalyptic vision of the future have the ultimate power in that country.”
The regime may or may not be apocalyptic. However, two things — in our view — are certain. They are fatalistic & they are willing to kill to stay in power.
Earlier today, Iran International reported that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held a meeting to discuss responses to potential street protests as the Iranian economy teeters on the verge of collapse.
While there was no word of what approach was adopted, in the past, the regime has brutally put down protests.
Expect the same. Even if it ultimately is for a losing cause.
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BEND THE CURVE!
If more widespread civilian bloodshed is to be spared in Iran, then Team Trump must consider resuming military action sooner rather than later.
To be clear, we are NOT calling for civilian targets to be hit. Only for CENTCOM to be authorized to fully take control of the Strait of Hormuz and in doing so, deprive Vahidi & Zolghadr of their last remaining negotiating card.
Bending the curve this way is likely the only way. Vahidi doesn’t believe he has lost even if Iran as a country is losing.
Team Trump must disabuse him of that notion. Tens of thousands of Iranian civilians might be saved in the process.
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ICYMI #1
Mark was on TVP World yesterday to discuss the shooting at the White House Correspondents Dinner, the state of the NATO alliance & the war in Ukraine. Our good friend Ashim Kumar hosted.
You can watch it here.
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ICYMI #2
Jon was on Al Qahera News earlier today as well. He discussed the status of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, enriched uranium & the Strait of Hormuz.
You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.