INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.12.206
February 12th, 2026
Greetings! War drums are beating louder in the Middle East. Late tonight, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group was ordered to redeploy to the region.
Photo credit: US Navy/Seaman Apprentice Nathan Sears. The USS Gerald R. Ford operating in the Caribbean last month.
Elsewhere, Ukraine found a national hero at the Olympics in Cortina, Italy. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres made a fool out of himself & the principles of the institution he represents. Germany is rattled by the prospect of a Russian invasion & North Korea might be closer to officially designating a successor to Kim Jong-un.
Let’s get started chasing those stories down & putting them into perspective as to how they relate to U.S. national security.
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NORTH AMERICA
Did he, or didn’t he? We now know that Jared Kushner is at the heart of a whistleblower complaint lodged against Tulsi Gabbard—Trump’s Director of National Intelligence. According to alleged National Security Agency (NSA) intercepts, it relates to allegations made by “two foreign nationals” who apparently discussed sensitive—if not incriminating—matters related to the president’s son-in-law.
Significantly, U.S. officials familiar with the underlying complaint have made it clear that there is “no corroborating evidence to support the allegations.”
Bear in mind, foreign intelligence services play deep games—especially if they believe their conversations are being tapped.
There may be nothing to it. If so, that still leaves us with foreign actors attempting to discredit Kushner.
That alone makes it a story worth following.
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In the category of ‘you can’t make stuff this up,’ United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres sent a congratulatory message to Iran marking the 47th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Really?
As we documented in our INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Tuesday, the Islamic Republic of Iran has murdered between 70,000-120,000 Iranian citizens since its inception.
Their proxies are also responsible for the deaths of up to 1,600 Americans—including attacks on the U.S. Embassy and U.S. Marine Corps barracks bombings in Beirut, Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, and Explosively Formed Penetrators provided to Shia militias during the war in Iraq, just to name a few.
On October 7th, 2023, 46 Americans were among the 1,200+ innocent men, women, and children murdered by Hamas terrorists. Yet another 12 Americans were part of the 254 people taken hostage by Hamas.
That attack—executed by an Iranian proxy—also had Russia’s fingerprints all over it. An attack that took place on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 70th birthday, shortly after Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh visited Moscow on 10 September 2023.
Indeed, the same Russia that invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. And, indeed, the same Russia that assumed the presidency of the U.N. Security Council in April 2023 despite undermining the entire global order.
Guterres—seemingly—has forgotten that it is the same Iran that began providing Russia Shahed drones to terrorize Ukrainian civilians in July 2022, then authorized them to build the drones in Russia’s Tatarstan region.
Ditto forgetting that this was the same Iran that launched 170 drones and over 120 ballistic missiles against Israel in April 2024, then another 500 ballistic missiles and around 1,100 drones again in June 2025.
It is lost on Guterres that Iran will not stop its pursuit of a nuclear weapon, or its ballistic missile program, or support of its proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels. Notably, all three of those are stated redlines by Team Trump. If unchecked, they would be destabilizing threats to the Middle East for decades.
So—pray tell—why did Guterres send Iran a congratulatory letter that extends “his warmest congratulations on the National Day of the Islamic Republic of Iran?” A letter that describes such anniversaries as “an opportunity to reflect on a country’s path and contributions to the international community?”
Remind us again why this man is the Secretary-General of the U.N.? Given that he is, is there any wonder why the U.S. is $4 billion behind on its dues?
It is time we take a hard look at the U.N. It has become as ineffective as the League of Nations, not to mention corrupted at the hands of Moscow & Beijing.
Guterres warned last week that the world body faces “imminent financial collapse.” If so, that’s a reflection of his time in leadership.
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SOUTH AMERICA
Two people were injured yesterday when the USS Truxtun—an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer—bumped into USNS Supply—a Supply-class combat support vessel—somewhere in the waters off South America. Accidents happen but the incident is a timely reminder that the U.S. Navy is still conducting active operations in the Caribbean & Pacific.
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CARIBBEAN
Earlier today, two Mexican Navy ships carrying humanitarian aid arrived in Cuba amidst a U.S. blockade of oil to the island nation.
Reportedly, they were carrying “536 tons of food including milk, rice, beans, sardines, meat products, cookies, canned tuna, and vegetable oil, as well as personal hygiene items” and “277 tons of powdered milk.”
Claudia Sheinbaum—Mexico’s president—vowed to send more humanitarian aid in the coming days. She also called for “peaceful dialogue” between Washington & Havana.
Notably, when asked to comment on the Trump administration’s blockade of oil shipments to Cuba, Dmitry Peskov—Putin’s Kremlin spokesman—said, “It’s impossible to discuss these issues publicly right now for obvious reasons.”
Once again Russia is being Russia. Like former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad & Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, when push comes to shove Moscow has a tendency these days to leave their allies high & dry.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should take note. Putin—likely—will throw him under the bus next to preserve his negotiating leverage with Team Trump.
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EUROPE
Our generation remembers Jesse Owens—the U.S. Olympian who single-handedly destroyed Nazi Chancellor Adolf Hiter’s claims of Aryan racial supremacy by winning four gold medals in the 1936 Summer Olympics—as the ultimate national hero on a civilian stage.
For Ukraine, that honor goes to Vladyslav Heraskevych. He was disqualified by the International Bobsleigh and Skeleton Federation jury after refusing to remove a helmet honoring Ukrainian athletes killed during the war in Ukraine.
Photo credit: Tiziana Fabi / AFP. Disqualified Ukrainian Olympian Vladyslav Heraskevych wearing a helmet dedicated to Ukrainian athletes killed during Putin’s war with Ukraine during a practice run in Cortina, Italy on February 11th, 2026.
Ukraine condemned the decision which was upheld by International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Kirsty Coventry. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha—rightly, in our opinion—declared that “future generations will remember this as a moment of shame.”
Ukraine isn’t like the other 130 conflicts around the world as claimed by IOC spokesperson Mark Adams. Putin’s war in Ukraine is an attack on the entire global order—and it is an attack on Europe, where the Winter Olympics are being held.
Coventry & Adams’ responses—fair under normal circumstances—were & are tone deaf to the very real threat Putin represents to the West. And—indeed—oblivious to the danger Russia poses to the Olympic ideals.
Heraskevych’s personal sacrifice on behalf of Ukraine didn’t go unnoticed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier today awarded him the Order of Freedom.
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Elsewhere in Europe, Germany is deeply rattled. Gen. Carsten Breuer—the Bundeswehr’s top general—is preparing to fight Russia. Per alarming reporting in The Wall Street Journal, “Germany’s military-intelligence agency estimates that within the next three years … will have amassed enough weaponry and trained enough troops to be able to start a wider war across Europe.”
Photo credit: The Wall Street Journal. Gen. Carsten Breuer, the 17th Inspector General of the Bundeswehr—Germany’s military.
Breuer is also warning that smaller scale Russian actions—potentially incursions into the Baltic States in eastern Europe—could happen even sooner. He also—correctly—warns that “Russia’s economy is on a war footing; the country is stockpiling artillery shells and tanks; it’s looking to expand its ranks to 1.5 million men.”
64% of Germans agree with him. Breuer—like us, if you’ve read our previous articles & analyses—believes that Europe is “in a liminal state—not yet at war, but no longer at peace.” Russian drones, cyber-attacks, espionage, the cutting of communication cables in the Baltic Sea, & railway sabotage are all evidence of that.
To that end, Breuer is seeking 80,000 more German troops by 2035. If he gets them, that will bring Germany’s military up to 264,000 troops backstopped by 200,000 reservists. It’s not an easy lift. The country is still—rightly—haunted by World War II.
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MIDDLE EAST
Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier today at the White House. Speaking about Iran, Trump later warned that, “[Khamenei] should have made a deal the first time, then they got Midnight Hammer instead. This will be very traumatic for Iran if they don’t make a deal.”
Prior to that, Trump had made it clear he still prefers diplomacy over military action. Maybe. Maybe not.
Late tonight, it was confirmed by Jennifer Griffin at Fox News that the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group has been ordered to redeploy from the Caribbean to the Middle East. There have not been two carrier strike groups in the region since last June during the 12-Day War & Operation Midnight Hammer.
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INDO-PACIFIC
Remember the name: Kim Ju Ae. Or at least remember it for now. It is not entirely clear that it is her real name.
Nonetheless, she is only 13 and the National Intelligence Service (NIS)––South Korea’s security agency––believes she is “close” to being designated as the official successor to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Photo credit: 朝鮮通信社/AP/KCNA via KNS. Kim Jong-un, left, with his daughter, reportedly named Kim Ju Ae at the East Pyongyang Grand Theatre in Pyongyang, North Korea on June 29th, 2025.
NIS is monitoring whether she makes an appearance at the upcoming Workers’ Party Conference to be held later this month in North Korea. Previously, Kim Ju Ae has appeared at ballistic missile tests, military parades, & at factory openings.
Notably, she traveled with Kim Jong-un to Beijing last September when he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Kim Ju Ae was also spotted visiting Pyongyang’s Kumsusan Palace of the Sun—where her paternal grandfather & great-grandfather are buried—on New Year’s Day with her parents.
Kim Ju Ae, if she someday succeeds her father would be a fourth-generation Kim to lead the hermit state of North Korea.
Notably in the past, Kim Yo Jong—Kim Jong-un’s influential sister—was long-rumored as his successor.
Photo credit: KCNA. Kim Yo Jong addresses the North Korean Politburo on June 20th, 2021.
Despite North Korea’s entrenched male chauvinism, we wouldn’t count out Kim Yo Jong quite yet as the country’s next leader. She is powerful & she is vocal about it. Earlier today she threatened to attack South Korea over drone incursions.
Stay tuned. This has the makings of a North Korean-style Game of Thrones.
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ICYMI!
If regime change is on the menu in Iran, it won’t be easy. We explained why today in our weekly Thursday 7 AM ET national security column at The Hill.
Photo credit: Vahid Salemi. AP. Iranian street protesters.
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Jon & Mark
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