INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.13.2026
May 13th, 2026
Greetings and Happy Hump Day!
Something interesting happened after the May 9th Victory Parade in Moscow that has left many analysts perplexed.
Photo Credit: Bora Demir/Anadolu/Getty Images. Russian soldiers rehearse for the Victory Day military parade.
During his post-parade remarks, Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “Mr. Zelensky.”
Was it a Freudian slip, a sign of respect, or a simple gesture designed to get his attention?
The latter seems more likely given Putin’s other comments. Oleksandr Kovalenko described it as a “kind of manipulation aimed at presenting Moscow’s position in a less confrontational manner.”
Is that even possible?
But has anything really changed other than the addition of the Mr. title?
Let’s peel back a few layers of this onion and take a closer look.
*** SPOILER ALERT
The short answer is no. Putin’s maximalist demands are still in place.
The longer answer is that Putin may finally be feeling the effects of Ukrainian sanctions and the unsustainable losses his military is taking on the battlefield — 1,344,180 as of May 13th.
And for the fourth straight month, recruitment is not keeping pace with Russian losses on the battlefield.
This is a weakened Putin reaching out to Zelensky. Yet, Mad Vlad is still only offering the same end state.
***
THE WAR IN UKRAINE WILL BE OVER SOON
The words that caught everyone’s attention during Putin’s post-parade remarks were, “I think the (war in Ukraine) is coming to an end.”
Photo Credit: Maxim Shipenkov / Pool / AFP via Getty Images. Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to the media following his meetings with foreign delegations at the Kremlin in Moscow on May 9, 2026.
In betting terms, Putin tried to parlay his Mr. comment with the possibility of a meeting with Zelensky — implying an end to the war was within the realm of possibility— hoping the combination of the two would lead to a larger payout: an end to the special military operation (SMO) on his terms.
But then his team told us what he really meant.
***
THE DONBAS
NEXTA got it right when they said “the Kremlin continues to push negotiations in the format of “first capitulation — then dialogue.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin was ready to meet with Zelensky at any time — but only in Moscow. He went on to say that a meeting outside of Moscow would be possible only to sign a finalized agreement, and that the “SMO” would allegedly stop at any moment as soon as Kyiv “makes the necessary decisions that they are well aware of.”
Specifically — withdraw from the Donbas region. “Zelensky must order the Ukrainian army to lay down its arms and leave Donbas … withdraw its troops from territories Russia considers its own.”
That is not likely to happen.
On Tuesday the Kremlin lowered expectations, stating that “there was no concrete plan to end the Ukraine war.”
Russia — militarily speaking — can’t win the war Putin started with Ukraine. Consequently, it is now dependent on the U.S. to get Kyiv to capitulate to Moscow. Despite Kirill Dmitriev offering a “portfolio of potential U.S.-Russia projects [valued] over $14 trillion”, President Donald Trump still has not been able to deliver.
As Jon stated on X, the truth of the matter is this, “Russia lost the only remaining leverage they had over Ukraine – Trump’s ability to influence.”
***
SO WHICH ONE IS IT?
As Trump was leaving the White House yesterday for his summit in Beijing, he told reporters that, “The end of the war in Ukraine I really think is getting very close. Believe it or not, it’s getting closer.”
But in Rome last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that U.S. efforts to broker peace in Russia’s war against Ukraine “have stagnated.”
“We’ve tried to play a mediator role in that,” Rubio said. “So far, it has not led to a fruitful outcome for a variety of reasons. We remain prepared to play that role if it can be productive.”
***
THE TRUMP CEASEFIRE
Let’s not kid ourselves. The three-day ceasefire Trump brokered for Putin’s Victory Parade in Moscow’s Red Square was never going to be a prelude to a more encompassing ceasefire or a peace deal. As soon as the ceasefire expired, Moscow launched its next tranche of 800 drones towards Ukraine.
The ceasefire simply allowed Putin to have his parade in exchange for a prisoner swap — a parade he attended for just 45 minutes. A parade that was actually a win-win for Zelensky, as the world was able to witness firsthand just how far the once mighty Russia Bear had fallen.
Putin’s parade was absent any military hardware — tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, ballistic missiles, etc. — instead, it showcased cadets and North Korean soldiers marching in formation.
Whether the absence of military hardware was for security purposes — i.e. to prevent an assassination or a military coup — or as Russian MP Yevgeny Popov claimed, “Our tanks are busy right now. They are fighting. We need them more on the battlefield than on Red Square,” one thing is certain: Russia is in trouble.
It’s gotten so bad that Putin even said he would “potentially be willing to meet with European leaders to negotiate an end to the war, particularly those leaders who had not disparaged Russia.”
Just not Zelensky.
But as Russia searches for an oxygen mask, Ukraine is getting its second wind.
***
UKRAINE IS WINNING
Momentum has shifted back to Ukraine’s favor. Kyiv is winning where it matters most — on the battlefield, in the Russian coffers, and in drone warfare.
As we wrote in our May 5th edition of INTREP360 Intelligence Report:
Ukraine has revolutionized drone warfare — in the close and interdiction fights via ‘kill zones,’ and in the deep fight. No target is off limits — nor out of range as demonstrated during Operation Spiderweb in June 2025.
Kyiv no longer asks permission to strike targets in Russia with Western weapons — they use their own manufactured weapons (Fire Point 1/2/5 & 7/9) to enforce Ukrainian sanctions.
On Tuesday, the Atlantic Council reported that, “Ukrainian drone warfare experts have deployed to the Middle East to defend the region against Iranian attack drones. Teams of Ukrainian specialists are coordinating air defense operations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, and working alongside American colleagues to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan.”
Putin no longer has confidence that Russia’s air defense network can provide security to critical infrastructure, government facilities or his own personal residences, which is why he went to Trump to broker a ceasefire with Ukraine to not attack his parade.
***
AND THEN THERE IS ARMENIA
If Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova all seeking membership into the European Union wasn’t enough to put Putin on full tilt — Armenia’s pursuit of EU membership certainly will.
The timing couldn’t be worse— for Moscow that is. For Yerevan, a window of opportunity presents itself.
Putin is fully invested in his war with Ukraine, and short of threatening Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan with an “Ukrainian scenario,” is pretty much out of Schlitz.
Putin’s solution?
A national referendum to let the people decide between the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Of course any vote would be subject to Russian interference — i.e. Georgia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and the U.S. — which is really the only tool left in Putin’s toolbox.
And while Putin says if Armenia chooses the EU, an “intelligent and mutually beneficial divorce” from the EAEU might be necessary, Armenia would likely need a restraining order.
The two countries have been on a collision course for the past several years. The Kyiv Post reports that:
On May 7, Pashinyan stated that Armenia is “not an ally of Russia on the issue of Ukraine” and has continued to send humanitarian aid to Kyiv.
Since February 2024, Armenia has frozen its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) following Russia’s failure to provide military assistance during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
In 2023, Armenia ratified the Rome Statute, joining the International Criminal Court (ICC) — a body that has issued an active arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin.
***
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY REMAIN THE SAME
French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr nailed that aphorism. Russian tactics are like a Big-10 college football game in the 1970s — three yards and a cloud of dust. Mass — in artillery and infantry — wins. Full frontal assaults. Repeat, repeat, and repeat again. Try harder.
After four years of sustained combat operations, it is still a war of attrition for the Kremlin. That is their comfort zone, but nonetheless, a World War I mentality where more is better. It’s what worked in the past; however, modern weapons and technology defeat mass in the present.
No one knows this more than the Russian grunt — and the Ukrainian soldiers flying their drones.
Photo Credit: Nikoletta Stoyanova/Getty Images. A soldier prepares a drone for flight by connecting cables to the system.
Dmytro Putiata is one of those soldiers. He told the Financial Times that “The Ukrainian army is increasing its strikes deep into enemy territory, targeting Russian logistics, ammunition depots and soldiers’ living quarters. These attacks, combined with drone-assisted strikes on supply lines, are causing disruptions to troop rotations and shortages of drones and munitions.”
Yet, in what should come as no surprise to anyone, the Financial Times reported yesterday that, “Russia’s top commanders have convinced Putin their forces could seize the whole of the Donbas by autumn.” That is after all what he wants to hear; Putin’s generals know that open windows in Moscow can be quite hazardous to one’s health.
At the current rate of advance by Russian forces in Ukraine, most analysts — ourselves included — estimate it would take Russia three decades to occupy the Donbas.
Donbas by autumn versus three decades — that’s a pretty large delta. To cover the spread, Putin has returned to nuclear saber rattling, flaunting the successful test launch of Russia’s most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday — the RS-Sarmat.
Putin declared “This is the most powerful missile in the world,” then said the nuclear-armed missile would enter combat service at the end of the year. About the same time his generals tell him they will secure the Donbas.
Clearly a message intended for an American and European audience. But Putin may not have until the ‘end of the year.’
***
PROGRAMMING NOTE
Tomorrow, at 7 AM ET, in our regular Thursday national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we caution that Iran is seeking to hijack Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s summit.
You can read it here when it goes live.
***
ICYMI
Mark was on Al Qahera News earlier today. They discussed the prospects of a Mideast peace deal being struck in Beijing this week.
He said it isn’t likely.
You can watch it here.
***
Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Russian casualties are double the losses during the war with Afghanistan.
If Putin has cards left in his hand, they are low ones