INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.01.2026
May 1st,2026
Greetings!
The weekend is upon us, but the business of Iran remains unfinished. There has been plenty of discussion in the news & on Social Media the past couple days about the possibility President Donald Trump will renew military strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As we stated in last night’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report, the governing body of Iran — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — led by Maj. Gen. Ahmed Vahidi, has no intent to give up Iran’s enriched uranium program or their pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
That message was reinforced by Iran’s latest hidden Imam — Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — who allegedly vowed in a message on Thursday that the Islamic Republic would protect its “nuclear and missile capabilities” as national assets.
These are hard red lines for the Trump Administration.
Photo credit: Vahid Salemi / AP. Who is really in charge in Iran? A crowd of regime supporters carry a picture of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Tehran.
Tehran is not going to capitulate to Trump’s demands; rather, they will continue their strategy to delay negotiations with a deliberate ‘fog of leadership’ tactic. What does it all mean? Let’s peel back a few layers of this onion and take a look.
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STANDOFF
The issue has come to a head — again — with neither side budging despite efforts from Pakistan & Russia, both of whom would benefit significantly from a peace deal.
Trump’s naval blockade is having an effect though. But the blockade, used in isolation, will take longer than the President has patience — or time — for.
The global economy is reeling from the effects of the dual Iran-U.S. blockade of strait, and the War Powers Resolution 60-day deadline expires today — or, if you believe Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, it reset or paused the day of the ceasefire when it went into effect with Iran.
Taken altogether, that leaves many to speculate — including us — that the hammer is about to fall.
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COOPER TIME
The presence of Adm. Brad Cooper — Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) — Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine at the White House Thursday should leave no doubt in anyone’s mind where the President is leaning.
After receiving classified briefings on Iran yesterday, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) – member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and ranking member of the Homeland Security and Government Affair Committee — told CNN’s Erin Burnett he believes military action is imminent, and seemingly without a “coherent strategy.”
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RAZOR’S EDGE
American forces are in place — 50,000 warfighters. A third carrier strike group, led by the USS George H.W. Bush, recently arrived on station adding “more than 200 Navy aircraft and some 15,000 sailors and Marines.”
This won’t be an invasion or an occupation force. This is a lethal fighting force intent on destroying the IRGC and whatever assets they have available to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — from land, sea or air.
Light Infantry — paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, U.S. Army Rangers, Marines, and Special Forces, supported by U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthogs and Army AH-64 Apache helicopters providing close air support with their 30mm chain guns and Hellfire missiles — will assume the operational phase of CENTCOM’s military campaign.
Their mission? Secure the far side of the objective: the Iranian coastline.
Raids & assaults will be conducted to destroy speed boats hidden in coves or man-made facilities, coastal defense batteries, drone launch sites, weapons and munitions storage facilities, IRGC forces, and targets of opportunity observed by persistent surveillance.
They’ll also secure key terrain to deny the IRGC the ability to observe and direct fires into the strait.
The Navy’s mission is to secure the objective — the Strait of Hormuz — with minesweepers and countermine ships to clear the shipping lanes — opening them for ships to pass through under escort, while keeping the blockade in place for Iranian ships.
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THE TRUMP STRAIT?
Securing and opening the strait won’t be enough — keeping it open will be the challenge. The Trump Administration must relearn how to play well with others, especially our NATO allies.
According to ABC News, they have already taken the first step:
“The Trump administration is seeking the participation of other countries to form an international coalition to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to an internal cable sent this week by the State Department to posts around the world.
Dubbed the “Maritime Freedom Construct,” the coalition would help with coordinating diplomatic efforts, including aligning on sanctions and information sharing to help with safe transit through the waterway, according to a U.S. official.
The cable called on diplomats to announce the formation of the new coalition and “ask for partner participation” by Friday.”
Friday — today — is a quick turn.
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SHELL GAME
Earlier today, Pakistan — operating as a backchannel for negotiations between the U.S. & Iran — announced that the Iranians had presented a new peace proposal for the U.S. to consider.
Islamabad did not characterize Tehran’s terms, however, upon hearing this, we were highly skeptical that Iran — especially the IRGC — would make any major concessions.
Our first words to each other were, ‘It’s an Iranian shell game.’
Late this morning, Trump confirmed our suspicions. While he stuck to his, “they want to make a deal” mantra, he also added, “I’m not satisfied with it, so we’ll see what happens.”
Moments later, Trump noted that he also wasn’t sure “they [the Iranians] will ever get there.
They won’t at least as long as Vahidi & his hardline IRGC commanders remain in power. It is a shell game.
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UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER
It’s been over three weeks — enough time to rearm, discern Iranian activities, update target lists, and finalize the plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Photo Credit: Saul Loeb/AFP. Admiral Brad Cooper (left) with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth during a press briefing on April 16th.
But this must be more than just a series of “short and powerful” strikes intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table.
This must result in regime change — the White House needs to abandon its futile path of negotiations and get back to the business of winning. The President needs to channel his inner Ulysses S. Grant and Gen. George S. Patton.
These ‘short and powerful’ strikes should only stop when Vahidi — or Khamenei — utter the words ‘we surrender.’ Not when whoever the President is speaking to now.
Trump should demand a broadcast on Iranian television and radio similar to the one Japanese Emperor Hirohito made on August 15, 1945 announcing “the surrender of Japan in a radio broadcast known as the “Jewel Voice Broadcast” (Gyokuon-hōsō), marking the end of World War II. The speech, delivered in formal, classical Japanese, accepted the Potsdam Declaration’s terms.”
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IT’S THE CENTER OF GRAVITY, STUPID!
As we stated weeks ago now in The Hill — the IRGC is the regime’s center of gravity. Leaving them in power is unconscionable and will result in a ‘forever war,’ ‘frozen conflict,’ or whatever you want to call it.
Remove the regime — not just the latest round of actors in Iran’s version of musical chairs — and you remove all the issues the Trump Administration and Israel went to war over.
The IRGC is the immortal head of the hydra. Enriched uranium, nuclear weapons program, ballistic missile and drone programs, support to regional proxies, brutal suppression of Iranian citizens by their Basij paramilitary, threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and threats to Gulf Nation states, Israel and the U.S. — are the other heads.
Attack and defeat the source — and the remaining heads will wither on the vine.
The President’s guidance to ADM. Brad Cooper yesterday should have been twofold: defeat the IRGC and secure the strait. Then get out of the way.
The question is — will the troops be eating steak and lobster for dinner tonight? If so, then it is likely game on.
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MICHELOB WEEKEND?
As we enter the first weekend of May, a classic commercial from the late 1970s comes to mind: “Weekends were made for Michelob.”
Vahidi and his hardliners may not think so come Monday morning.
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Thank you for reading. We’ll see how this all plays out on Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
I’m in your camp with the supposition that the IRGC must go without a doubt.
For the civilian population who rise up there needs to be some direct intervention and arming of the civilians..
Additionally, since the cease fire began three weeks ago, the regime has also had time to suppress any opposition from within the country. The people who are fighting for freedom cannot be expected to change their government leadership without external support.