INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

06.26.2026: IT'S THE IRGC STUPID!

June 26th, 2026

Greetings!

Just when you thought we’d have a quiet weekend – the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) attacks a Singapore cargo ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.

Photo Credit: VESSELFINDER.COM. Vessel Ever Lovely has since completed it transit through the waterway and is continuing its voyage as scheduled.

According to the Financial Times, the cargo ship was targeted after at least four tankers trying to traverse the Strait were turned back by Iran.

Not like ‘we’ didn’t see this coming. And by we, we mean everyone except Vice President J.D. Vance and his negotiating team in Switzerland – Witkoff & Kushner.

The IRGC is staying on script with their commanders’ guidance – Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi:

“We have tamed President Trump. We got what we wanted. As always, the naive West believes it will get something in return, which, of course, will never happen.”

“Our goal now is to keep the Americans under strict surveillance. Any violation, no matter how small, will allow us to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump and his people will accept anything.”

As we wrote in The Hill in March, the IRGC is the Islamic Republic of Iran’s center of gravity. As the White House is rediscovering – it doesn’t matter what is said and agreed to behind closed doors, the IRGC is not bound to it. Whether by design or by default, Tehran’s negotiation team is operating off a separate playbook and not in sync with the IRGC – or are they? – creating an atmosphere of plausible deniability that some ‘deconfliction cell’ can iron out later.

Nothing has changed, just like Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The Iranian system is led by clerics, radical clerics. That’s what it’s always been led by.”

The White House continues to spin its wheels with “people in [Iran’s] political branches that seem more flexible or more willing to work with us.” Only, the IRGC does what Vahidi tells them to do – they are after all, his enforcers.

The IRGC keeps the regime in power, directs their proxies to attack Israel, arrests Iranian civilians accused of collaborating with “the enemy,” launches missiles and drones at Gulf State neighbors, and attacks ships transiting the strait.

As the phrase made famous by the 1976 investigative film All the President’s Men goes, “follow the money.” In this case, if you want to know Iran’s true intent, “follow the IRGC.”

Unless Washington does something about the IRGC, they should just go ahead and brace themselves for 57 more days of trying to secure that elusive “pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.” In this case – an open Strait of Hormuz free of Iranian influence and for the recovery of 972 pounds of 60% enriched uranium.

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THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

So let’s take a look at Point #5 of the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that the U.S. and Iran agreed to:

Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Those two words at the front end of this point – “best efforts” – provide Tehran significant latitude to operate. So too do the words “safe passage” of commercial vessels with “no charge, for 60 days only” from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman. This implies administrative control over the strait – and fees, tolls, tax, environmental charges, Iranian insurance, etc., … whatever Iran eventually calls them on day 61.

Last Friday, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said that planned fees for ships using the waterway [Strait of Hormuz] would be suspended during the 60-day negotiation period established under the MoU signed with the U.S.

Today Iran made clear what their ‘best efforts’ were – warning that safe passage can only be guaranteed for ships that coordinate with Tehran.

The Hill’s Laura Kelly wrote:

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on X that passage through the strait must be coordinated with Iran and that attempts to subvert Tehran could lead to “the suspension of the designated parallel route.”

“Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with ambiguous arrangements, parallel routes, or decision-making outside of Iran’s considerations as the coastal state, cannot be guaranteed”

“Any credible framework must be based on coordination with Iran and the provisions of paragraph five of the Islamabad MoU. Otherwise, the outcome will be the suspension of the designated parallel route.”

But as Lee Corso would say on ESPN’s College GameDay program, “Not so fast my friend.”

On Wednesday, the President posted on Truth Social that, “Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are “NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.” If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately!

Rubio followed that up with a statement of his own, “The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway… no country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway … That’s existing international law. That’s the way it is in international waterways all over the world, and that’s the way we expect it’ll be here.”

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BUT THAT’S NOT WHAT THE MoU SAYS

While the MoU was intentionally written vaguely, Iran’s interpretation of the document is quite literal.

They aren’t waiting until day 60 – and the IRGC is already in enforcement mode.

This is right out of Paul Newman’s 1967 movie hit Cool Hand Luke: “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate.”

You can watch it here:

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KEEPING THE STRAIT OPEN

Keeping the oil flowing is the goal – but holding Iran accountable must be the requirement.

Team Trump is going to have to do something about these incursions and ceasefire violations – tough talk followed by inaction isn’t working. Not just in the Strait of Hormuz, but in Lebanon as we wrote in Wednesday’s INTREP360 Intelligence Report.

The IRGC is slowly picking away at the scab of the MoU terms as Iran’s negotiation team tells Witkoff & Kushner what they want to hear, only to refute what they agreed to later.

Writing them off as ‘minor’ events only begets more violations.

The U.S. ‘can’t get there from here.’ If Iran can’t play well with others, then it’s time to remove Iran from the equation.

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ICYMI #1

In our daily weekday column at The Washington Star, we examined Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s announcement that Ukraine is going to wage a 40-day pressure campaign against Russia to end the war.

Photo credit: X. Volodymyr Zelensky said today that “we honor the blue banner with the golden tamğa — this proud flag that unites the entire Crimean Tatar people.”

You can read it here.

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ICYMI #2

Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera News to discuss the latest on Phase 2 of the Gaza ceasefire as well as reacting to the breaking news of the agreement signed at the State Department today between Israel and Lebanon.

To say the least, it got heated. The studio guest was obsessed about blaming Israel while ignoring Hamas.

Mark’s response?

He said we could spend the next 50 years assigning blame, but if the panel really wants to see peace in Gaza and Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah must be disarmed and disbanded.

You can watch it here.

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Thank you for reading. Have a great weekend and we will see you on Monday.

Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.