INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.24.2026: Iran’s call for a ‘permanent termination of the war in Lebanon’ may not work out for them
June 24th, 2026
Greetings!
The first item in the 14-Point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S. last week calls for “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon … ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.”
Photo Credit: Eric Lee/Pool Photo via AP. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio upon his arrival at Al Bateen Executive Airport, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, June 23, 2026.
But as Secretary of State Marko Rubio told reporters yesterday upon his arrival at Al Bateen Executive Airport, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates:
“The future of Lebanon belongs to the Lebanese people through their sovereign elected government, and that’s who we’re going to be working with.”
“There’s an Iranian issue with regard to Lebanon, and that is their support and sponsorship of Hezbollah, and so that factor will be discussed as part of our conversations with the Iranians.”
Tehran should be careful what it asks for – the conditions mandated in item one of the MoU may result in the loss of Hezbollah, their presence in Lebanon, and Iran’s ability to project force upon Israel.
‘Territorial integrity and sovereignty’ for Lebanon comes with a price tag – Iran’s Hezbollah proxy can no longer occupy Lebanon. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be running out of Schlitz.
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IN SEARCH OF A SOLUTION FOR LEBANON
Hezbollah is determined to continue its decades-long occupation of Lebanon.
Tehran is determined to make that happen through the use of the first point in the MoU as a tool to get the U.S. to pressure Israel into doing what they cannot achieve. From Iran’s perspective the remaining 13 points are contingent upon Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon – a.k.a. create leverage.
And by design, any reprisal attacks by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) against Hezbollah terrorists attacking Israel can – and will be – used by Iran to halt negotiations and apply pressure on Israel by the U.S.
However, as we stated in The Washington Star last night, “that did not work for Russian President Vladimir Putin with Ukraine in the Donbas, and it is not likely to work with Israel in Lebanon. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose their national security over unilateral ‘deals’ that President Donald Trump made with Russia and Iran.”
Israel has stated repeatedly – most recently by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich – that it will not withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon as long as the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist group remains active.
On Sunday, the IDF validated their occupation of southern Lebanon when they uncovered a massive tunnel complex near the village of Majdal Zoun – less than 4 miles from the Israeli border – where Hezbollah “built an underground drone ‘airbase’ from which it launched Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles at Israel.”
And Lebanon wants Hezbollah gone.
Photo Credit: CNN. Lebanese president accuses Iran of using his country as a bargaining chip in peace talks with the U.S.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour two weeks ago, “You [Iran] are not trying to help us … the people of Lebanon are paying the price … for the sake of your own interest. Our interests … do not coincide with your interests.” He added that the “Lebanese people are fed up with war between Israel and Hezbollah,” and that “It’s not your [Iran] country, it’s our country … we want to live in peace.”
On Tuesday, the head of Lebanon’s Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel echoed that sentiment stating, “We will not coexist with Hezbollah regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. We will not coexist with this militia and its weapons. Hezbollah must abide by the state’s conditions. Most Lebanese are not prepared to live as hostages of Hezbollah any longer.
But it’s not just the politicians. Lebanese TV Host Walid Abboud used his platform to deliver a message to Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and his followers, which made his guests a little nervous:
“Leave us. Yes, leave us. Take your weapons, your drones, your rockets, your mouthpieces, your flags, your Supreme Leader, your Iran and your [Resistance] Axis. Leave us. Your ‘great’ Iran has planted a nuclear bomb in our midst, and justified its existence in the name of ‘Honor,’ while we, and your own people, are consumed by wars and killed by hunger. As for your Godly party [Hezbollah], it planted drones and weapons throughout Lebanon, claiming that it is here to save Lebanon, but lo and behold, it’s finishing Lebanon off. Stop hijacking us. Stop putting our dreams in chains. Stop plundering our economy. Stop killing our children. Stop blackmailing us and the world. I say this loud and clear: Leave us. We no longer see you as a resistance [movement]. When we look at you all we see is the din [sic] of war, and all we smell is death. Your weaponry has turned into noise rather than shield, prison rather than shelter. Your underground drone factories resemble the graves of our dreams above it. Leave us. You are not our destiny, and we will not be held hostage by your delusions. Who told you that your weapons that abide by the orders of Qom and Tehran constitute resistance? Who told you that loyalty to Iran is tantamount to patriotism? Go away and settle in those far away lands. This Iran of yours will not reject you. After all you exchanged with it bread, salt, weapons, gold, a lot of money and Captagon. Iran will not give you a cold shoulder, after all the love you have shown it. Go away, we want to live in peace. Leave us.
Watch the Video here: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1731968144487297
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QASSEM SAYS ISRAEL MUST WITHDRAW FROM LEBANON
But Qassem does not share Aoun, Gemayel or Abboud’s perspective – in his world, Lebanon is an extension of Iran. Hezbollah governs Lebanon, and the IRGC supports them.
Photo Credit: Wael Hamzeh/EPA, via Shutterstock. Naim Qassem at a memorial ceremony for senior Hezbollah commanders near Beirut, Lebanon, in June.
According to Qassem, “We now have a ceasefire. The withdrawal must take place according to a timetable. Israel has no choice but to fully withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, without retaining an inch.”
He added that “We are cooperating with the Lebanese Army to the fullest extent. Israel has no role in what we agree upon internally, and it must be prevented from interfering.”
According to Qassem, “Israel has no right to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs.” If that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black, we don’t know what is.
As Rubio stated, “A careful reading of the MoU will see that when you talk about, for example, a complete end of hostilities in the entire region, well that’s not possible. You can’t have the end of hostilities and conflicts in the region as long as Iranian proxies are launching missiles and drones from Iraq and are participating in terrorism like Hamas did and like Hezbollah did.”
Trump needs to find a solution for Lebanon and Iran’s proxy network that includes Hamas, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Shi’a militias in Iraq.
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HEZBOLLAH IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM
As we saw last week, IRGC advisors will continue to use their Hezbollah proxy to attack Israel at Tehran’s behest whenever they deem it necessary.
Trump sent a stern warning to Iran on Truth Social Sunday telling Tehran that they “must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”
But his constant threats to use force are losing their effectiveness. The IRGC, under the leadership of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, doesn’t believe him. Vahidi believes he has ‘tamed President Trump’ and issued the following command guidance: “We must make the Americans understand that Israel is the harmful actor in the Middle East. That is the goal.”
The IRGC ultimately is the problem. Hezbollah is the tool.
The solution to Lebanon is not the establishment of a deconfliction cell – that would only validate Hezbollah’s continued occupation of the region.
In order to obtain a ‘permenent termination of the war in Lebanon’ both Hezbollah and IDF forces will have to withdraw from the region and return it to its rightful owner – the Lebanese people.
Hezbollah must be disarmed, its infrastructure in southern Lebanon dismantled, and then physically escorted out of southern Lebanon before Israel would ever withdraw its forces – after validating the process.
Finding the right force to execute this mission is the challenge – and it would have to be led by the U.S.
The Lebanese Armed Forces – in its current capacity – cannot accomplish this on its own, and the United Nations has demonstrated over the past 20 years it cannot enforce its own Security Council Resolutions. In this case 1701 in 2006, which called for the full cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Hezbollah and other forces from Lebanon south of the Litani River, the disarmament of Hezbollah and other armed groups, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon — with no armed forces other than the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in Lebanon and Lebanese military south of the Litani — and Lebanon’s need to fully exert government control.
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BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
If not carefully managed and accounted for, those billions of dollars in unfrozen assets, sanctions relief, and income generated from the sale of oil will simply find their way back to Iran’s proxies and their ballistic missile and drone programs.
Iran’s strength is asymmetric warfare waged under and at the behest of the IRGC.
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PROGRAMMING NOTE
Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we detail how Putin will likely meet his end in Crimea.
You can read it here when it goes live.
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ICYMI
In our daily weekday column at The Washington Star we examine how Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko cried uncle to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. We also cover the lights going out in Russian occupied Crimea and the start of RIMPAC in the Pacific.
Photo credit:
You can read it here.
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Jon & Mark
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