INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.16.2026
January 16th, 2026
Greetings! Early on after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, we struggled to convey the magnitude of what had just happened.
Not only did Vladimir Putin shatter the post-World War II global order, but he also plunged the world into an ideological World War III—a cold war turning increasingly kinetic, fought through proxies, energy coercion, cyberattacks, & disinformation rather than massed armies alone.
Yesterday, we reiterated that this global conflict doesn’t look like Hollywood’s version—no mushroom clouds or post-apocalyptic wastelands (no offense to Fallout fans).
Instead, it is far more insidious: war by a thousand cuts.
That is why—as these INTREP360 Intelligence Reports evolve—we will keep examining global issues affecting U.S. national security from multiple angles. Some editions, like today’s, will be sweeping. Others will zoom in on a single flashpoint. To tell the full story of a conflict without clear beginnings or end dates, we stay flexible.
AI Image created by Grok. Early warning radar.
If we do it right, these reports can serve as an early warning radar—spotting trends & threats before they dominate headlines—so all of us can stay ahead.
In effect—together with you—we have the watch.
Let’s get started.
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NORTH AMERICA
Blessed are the peacemakers. Or so it should go. María Corina Machado—the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize—met with President Donald Trump at the White House today. She came bearing a gift—her award––and left with nothing.
Machado, the de facto opposition leader in Venezuela, was hoping to persuade Team Trump that she is the best person to lead the country in the wake of the U.S. capture & prosecution of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Photo credit: White House. Trump, left. Machado, right.
Her hopes—and calculus—were misplaced. While she was presenting her peace prize in the Oval Office, CIA Director John Ratcliffe was in Caracas meeting with Delcy Rodríguez––Maduro’s handpicked successor.
Intended or not, Team Trump’s messaging is—democracy is out, strongmen are in—especially if they can deliver business deals advantageous to the U.S.
Geopolitically, this could work in the short-term to the extent that it boxes out Moscow & Beijing. However, in the long-term—especially post-Trump—it is very difficult to see how this benefits U.S. national security.
Especially given that it risks making the only difference between the U.S., Russia & China one of currency, not governing principles—democratic principles that Washington championed with the Atlantic Charter in 1941.
Speaking of biblical tenets, it seems Washington is doing a lot of coveting these days of our allies & their territory.
Yes, as we’ve oft-argued, including at the New York Post, Greenland is vital to U.S. national security, but conquering the Danish territory or coercing Copenhagen into selling it is un-American.
We are not conquerors. Nor should we ever be.
Many in Congress, including Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), are right to call it “buffoonery.” It is also dangerous.
Trump is foolishly risking destroying NATO as a transatlantic alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin, no doubt—ditto Chinese President Xi Jinping—is laughing watching France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden & the Netherlands dispatching small numbers of troops to Greenland.
Photo credit: Moritz Frankenberg / AP. German Air Force (Luftwaffe) Airbus A400M. 2026.
Putin covets. We liberate.
Enough of this pointless contretemps with Denmark. Focus on partnering with Copenhagen to achieve our national security needs (including its use for Golden Dome—Trump’s proposed multi-layered defense shield for North America).
Perhaps, the New York Post’s editorial board put it best: “Trump’s Greenland gambit is a sideshow the forces of freedom don’t need.” Especially––as evinced in Iran––there are far bigger pressing strategic needs.
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SOUTH AMERICA
Money talks. Especially, China’s. While—understandably—we & others are focused on Venezuela when it comes to Latin America, Beijing continues to deepen its economic involvement throughout the region.
One ongoing target is Argentina.
Initially, while campaigning in 2023 to become the president of the country, Javier Milei was highly critical of China calling it an authoritarian state. After taking office, he was confronted with the reality that much of Argentina’s existing liquidity—due to Beijing’s Belt & Road Initiative—runs through China.
Now, despite strong pushback from the White House, Milei is scheduled to travel to Beijing later this year.
Photo credit: Reuters. Milei, left, Xi, right.
Earlier, in April, the U.S. helped Buenos Aires obtain a vital 4-year $20 billion extension by the International Monetary Fund. In return, it was expected by Washington—especially U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent—that Milei would start to distance Argentina from economic dependence on Xi.
So far, that’s not been the case.
Often, in national security analyses, you look for reactions to actions. One of China’s reactions to the U.S. capture of Maduro & the undermining of Beijing’s interests there may be to hedge their bets further in Argentina.
Stay tuned.
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EUROPE
Europe—once again—is having trouble getting on the same page when it comes to Putin. French President Emmanuel Macron is lobbying for the European Union to appoint its own special envoy to Russia to attempt to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Italy concurs.
However, the UK is demurring. Yesterday, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said that before London could agree, “I think [that] what we need is evidence that Putin actually wants peace and at the moment, I’m still not seeing that.”
In theory, Macron’s idea briefs well. Especially given Trump’s repeated vacillating between blaming Putin & Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for failing to reach a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
However, Cooper is right. Putin is continuing his maximalist demands & is showing no signs of stopping his war.
More talking isn’t needed. More action in the form of a European-led no-fly zone in Western Ukraine would be a better use of time. Until Putin’s cost calculus changes, peace talks will go nowhere.
To that end, it was disturbing to hear the comments of Petr Pavel, the president of the Czech Republic. Earlier today, he said that Zelensky might have to agree to “painful compromises” to reach a deal.
Ukraine has compromised—repeatedly. Putin has not—indeed, not once. We really aren’t sure what part of that Pavel—or for that matter, Team Trump—keeps failing to understand that basic fact.
That said, it is disconcerting given that the Czech Republic supplies the Armed Forces of Ukraine with half its ammunition. His country––of all countries, should understand given the disastrous Munich Agreement entered into by Nazi Germany & Great Britain in 1938.
Appeasement didn’t save Czechoslovakia then. Nor will appeasement save Ukraine—or Europe—from Putin now.
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MIDDLE EAST
Iran—seemingly—was building to a crescendo & then Team Trump dropped the baton. Granted, as we cautioned here yesterday, the U.S. doesn’t yet have sufficient military assets in the region to sustain operations against Iran if needed.
That said, Team Trump knew that before they started the president up the escalatory ladder––e.g., “HELP IS ON THE WAY”––thereby leaving his position exposed. Exposed not just to Tehran, but reportedly by Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia & Turkey as well.
The White House & Pentagon must get their act together. U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has now confirmed 3,090 Iranians have been killed by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & his regime.
Today, however, Trump appeared to back up, thanking the leadership of Iran for stopping 800 plus hangings. Granted—this could be misdirection or a signal—but a U.S. president praising Khamenei & his thugs is beyond the pale.
Screenshot: Trump Truth Social. January 16th, 2026.
Hopefully, this does indeed turn out to be a feint. That said, more & more, it appears Trump is headed towards an off-ramp in Iran. If so—eventually—those 800 plus brave Iranian protesters likely will be hanged or shot.
Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier keeps sailing toward the Persian Gulf while it transits the Pacific & Indian oceans.
Elsewhere in the Mideast, in Gaza, Trump formally announced the start of Phase II of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire. This included the naming of the Executive Board that will be responsible for overseeing the Gaza Board of Peace.
Trump will chair it. Other key members include Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Qatari Minister Ali Al-Thawadi & Egypt’s Intelligence Chief, General Hassan Rashad.
Turkey’s presence is notable. Especially since Israel was strongly opposed to it. Significantly too since Ankara has very different views of the Mideast––including Syria & Iran––than do others, including the U.S.
For instance, Turkey is opposed to the U.S. attacking Iran. This is due in part to the country preferring to see a perpetually weakened Iran versus a fractured country whose parts––especially the Kurds in their view––could be more dangerous than the whole.
Turkish President Recep Erdoğan also wants a very different outcome in Syria. U.S. officials now believe that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa—according to reporting in The Wall Street Journal—is “planning a multipronged operation, backed by the Turkish military, against the SDF in the eastern part of the Aleppo province and potentially across the Euphrates River.”
Photo credit: Baderkhan Ahmad / AP. SDF fighter in Syria. January 2026.
That’s significant because the U.S. backs the SDF.
Definitely keep an eye on Turkey. Erdoğan is determined for Ankara to be a bigger player in the region & Trump just gave him a seat at the table in Gaza.
Israel doesn’t like it & given Turkey’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood—which the U.S. just designated as a foreign terrorist group—Egypt, which has long banned the organization, likely isn’t thrilled either given Gaza’s proximity to the Sinai.
The Middle East—as ever—remains an ever-shifting place where the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
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INDO-PACIFIC
Unintended consequences are always a thing. Greenland—or Trump’s threats to obtain it one way or the other—is creating a tsunami of fear in the Indo-Pacific. Many current & former top officials of closest allies in the region are deeply rattled by what they view to be war mongering on the part of Team Trump.
Perhaps Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum, a retired South Korea army officer said it best. He had always viewed the “U.S. as a force for good.” Now, he laments, “I’m in a situation where I must tell my people that we now have two evils.”
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Let’s end this week on that note. It is pretty telling. It is also a compelling call to action. All of us Americans & our allies—regardless of party, creed or who you are rooting for in the Super Bowl this year—need to remember we are supposed to be the good guys.
It’s time Washington & Brussels remember that. Our Greatest Generation fought & died teaching us that.
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Thank you for reading! Enjoy your weekend. We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.