INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
01.12.2026
January 12th, 2026
Greetings! If ever Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is inclined to re-write “Dante’s Inferno,” he should revise its opening as follows.
‘Near the end of the journey of my life, I find myself within a forest dark. For the straightforward path had been lost.’
Indeed, it has.
Intensifying street protests that began on December 28th – tragically, now bloody & deadly – have spread to all 31 of Iran’s provinces.
Initially fueled by the bazaaris – Iran’s powerful merchant class – and their anger over a 40% annualized inflation rate & rapid devaluation of the rial to the U.S. dollar, the protests have now grown to include students, women protesting for equal rights & nationalists seeking a return of Iran as it was under the Shah.
Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the bazaaris have traditionally aligned with the ruling clerics in Iran. Their willingness – this time – to break with Khamenei is significant & is what makes this uprising different.
In the past, Iranian protests largely have been about reform. For example, in 1999 they were about press freedom & university student demands for change. Ten years later they were over election fraud in what became known as the Green Movement.
In 2017 & 2019, the Iranian street protests were largely economic over rapidly rising consumer prices & fuel costs.
In 2022 extending into 2023, the demonstrations centered on women’s civil rights in the direct aftermath of the killing – murder, really! – of Mahsa Amini while she was in police custody for violating Iran’s draconian dress codes.
Photo credit: AFP. A protester holds up a picture of Mahsa Amini, who died in police custody after being arrested in September 2022 for violating the Islamic Republic of Iran’s dress codes for women.
Two years later, the U.N. Human Rights Council by the Fact-Finding Mission on Iran held Tehran “responsible for the “physical violence” that led to [her] death.” By then, it was estimated that Khamenei’s regime had killed more than 500 Iranian protesters & arrested 22,000 others in connection with the Mahsa Amini protests that spawned the rallying cry, “Women, Life, Freedom!”
Now, all of these movements are coming together in a perfect storm that is threatening the very existence of Khamenei’s regime. Significantly, however, they are doing so with a very different end goal this time.
Not reform. Not compromise.
Rather, they are boldly demanding regime change. Arguably, all have played key roles in getting to this point.
Many Iranians – clearly! – have had enough of Khamenei’s Inferno. To put a permanent end to it, large numbers of them are shouting “Javid Shah!” – Farsi for “Long Live the Shah!”
Some argue this is simply directional & not specific. They, including Alireza Nader in a recent New York Post op ed, angrily contend that Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran, is not the man to lead Iran forward if – or when! – Khamenei & his regime falls.
Photo credit: Thomas Padilla/AP. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi speaking in Paris in 2025.
Nader claims that Pahlavi “does not represent the majority of the 92,000,000 people of Iran or the millions of Iranians in the diaspora.” Nader views Pahlavi as a “divisive rather than unifying figure.”
Others strongly disagree.
Goldie Ghamari, a former member of the Ontario Provincial Parliament in Canada, firmly believes that only Pahlavi can unite Iran going forward. She is adamant that the protestors want, as she puts it, “for their Shah to return.”
Video credit: Goldie Ghamari on X.
Time will tell who is right. To be clear, that is a decision that ultimately will have to be made by the Iranian people. Not us.
Like Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), we don’t know who will ultimately govern Iran. But we concur with him that “if you think Iranians are risking their lives so Rouhani or Mousavian can rule, you fundamentally misunderstand the Iranian people.”
Screenshot: Mark Dubowitz, CEO of FDD, post on X.
Plus, as Dubowitz observed, the exiled crown prince is proving himself to be an effective global convener of anti-Khamenei protesters & forces. For example, “When Pahlavi called for people to protest on Jan. 8 and 9, he got 3.2 million likes and 88 million views on Persian Instagram.” That’s not small change. No other Iranian, to date, has that reach.
Pahlavi, regardless of his future in a post-Islamic Republic of Iran world, is positioned to make Khamenei’s Inferno a lot hotter. Especially since it continues to get hotter on the ground inside of Iran.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), “more Iranian security officers have died during the current protests than in any other wave in Iran.” As of January 11th, it is believed that 114 or more officers have been killed.
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
This total includes members of the Iranian Law Enforcement Command, Basij & the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Significantly, the deaths of IRGC personnel suggests the Khamenei regime is struggling to maintain law & order with regular police forces & militia groups such as the Basij.
IRGC involvement is next level. It tells us Khamenei knows he is in danger.
Significantly, Khamenei’s Inferno is being flamed from abroad. Especially at the White House.
Earlier today, President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that, “Effectively immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America.”
Screenshot: Official White House Rapid Response 47 account on X.
Trump’s economic warning shot at Khamenei & his regime comes on the heels of reporting by Laura Kelly at The Hill that his top national security officials are set to brief him Tuesday with options for the U.S. to respond to the Iranian regime’s deadly use of force against protests sweeping the country.”
Team Trump’s messaging here is likely twofold.
One, it is aimed at the Iranian bazaaris making it clear to them their economic woes are not going away but rather, but given Khamenei’s brutal crackdown on the protesters, they are going to get worse. Indeed, a lot worse.
Two, Trump is signaling to Khamenei that he is likely going for the regime’s jugular. Not just Khamenei’s economy – battered as it already is – but likely kinetically as well in the form of military action against regime targets.
As Kelly noted, the U.S. might also conduct targeted cyberattacks to disrupt the regime’s civilian and military command & control.
There was, perhaps, a hiccup in the White House messaging today on Iran. Or perhaps, it was Team Trump’s attempt to distract Khamenei.
Abbas Araghchi – Iran’s foreign minister – reached out to Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to Russia & the Mideast, offering to negotiate what would presumably be a comprehensive nuclear deal.
Photo credit: AP. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Cairo, Egypt in 2025.
Trump later confirmed aboard Air Force One that he is considering the meeting. Further, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt reiterated today that Trump’s first option was always diplomacy in acknowledging such a meeting might take place.
Of course, in typical fashion, Araghchi told Al-Jazeera news that “there are proposed ideas that are being examined.” Tellingly, however, he also stressed that “Iran won’t negotiate under military threats.”
Translation: Araghchi is just playing Team Trump for time. Time to avoid any U.S. military strikes. Time to kill more Iranian protesters. Time to put an end to the protests that are creating an existential threat to Khamenei’s regime.
No one should be fooled. Araghchi is simply out to replay an oft-used Khamenei tactic: negotiate into perpetuity without end.
Vice President JD Vance is said to support negotiating with Iran. Let’s hope that this is just another designed Team Trump distraction.
Solve Iran & you solve much of the Mideast. Solve the Mideast – meaning the toppling of Khamenei & his regime – and Team Trump in the process will deal the Axis of Evil another crippling blow.
As we argued here Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin & Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Axis of Evil had a really bad week. Losing Iran as a founding member of that Axis would be a really, really good thing.
Putin’s drone partner & oil & gas shadow fleet collaborator would be taken off the chessboard & Xi would lose a lot of cheap oil that Beijing desperately needs – especially in its run up to potentially invading Taiwan.
It would also give Kyiv a much-needed win. One less Axis of Evil co-founder is one less enemy to fight in Ukraine.
Khamenei’s Inferno can do a lot of good if it is allowed to engulf him & his evil regime and relegate them to the ash heap of history.
He is lost in the forest. Turn the heat up. Dante would approve.
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Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
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