INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.19.2026
May 19th, 2026
As presidential candidate Ronald Reagan told then-President Jimmy Carter during a 1980 presidential debate — “There you go again.”
On that note, President Donald Trump “will NOT be doing the scheduled attack on Iran [tonight]” in light of “serious negotiations” on a peace deal.
As the saying goes, ‘it takes two to tango,’ and Iran is perfectly willing to dance with the White House to gain more time.
Photo Credit: HERB BALL/NBC/GETTY IMAGES. Monty Hall’s game show relied on improvisation and contestants were picked on the fly.
Not even Monty Hall — the legendary host of the Let’s Make a Deal television game show — can ‘make a deal’ with Iran right now.
But the President continues with his tough talk, telling Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday that, “They’re finished. Now they can make a deal or they get annihilated. I don’t want to do that.”
He came back strong again on Sunday with his post on Truth Social, “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
But he left the door open by saying — “I don’t want to do that,” meaning to annihilate Iran.
He has chosen the Monty Hall “let’s make a deal” approach to Iran rather than defeating them. He is playing for a tie, ignoring Gen. Patton’s warning that “Americans love a winner.”
The President’s hesitancy to “finish the job” and follow through on his threats seemingly validates his TACO label — “Trump always chickens out.”
‘Want it bad, got it bad’ is the most likely outcome of the President’s pursuit of a deal with Iran. The White House is attempting to place a band-aid on a sucking chest wound.
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THE DANCE
And no one knows that more than the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran — Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Maj. Gen. Ahmed Vahidi — who has broken Trump’s “Art of the Deal” code.
Vahidi is not worried about Trump’s threats; rather, he chooses to dance, knowing he can simply dangle a counterproposal at the 11th hour, and the White House will stand down, only for him to pull the rug out from underneath Trump when he declares victory on Truth Social.
Tuesday marks day 81 of the War with Iran — at least the first 38 days, which were defined as Operation Epic Fury. We are now 43 days into Trump’s ‘forever ceasefire.’
As Jon said on X, the pattern is evident — even to the most junior intelligence analyst.
The President makes his demands, Iran provides a counterproposal, the President rejects the counterproposal and threatens military force, Iran turns to Pakistan to mediate, the President extends his ceasefire, Iran provides a slightly altered counterproposal, the President rejects and — repeat ad nauseam.
The President seems to recognize the pattern — calling Iranian leadership ‘crazy bastards’ — but he keeps allowing himself to get pulled back into it.
As Reuters reported on Saturday, “he has repeatedly insisted that Iran has been completely crushed despite evidence to the contrary, said they were “begging” for a deal — only to have the Iranians deny it — while oscillating between demands for “unconditional surrender” and calls for a negotiated settlement.”
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CAN’T GET THERE FROM HERE
While the White House bends and waits, Iran continues to march to their own drumbeat.
The White House is in a perpetual reaction mode. In military terms — Vahidi retains the initiative.
Tehran has repeatedly said “it will not bow to U.S. pressure,” but clearly what is said behind closed doors is not reflected in the increasingly confrontational rhetoric espoused to the media, nor by their actions.
Al Jazerra reports that Mohsen Rezaei, a member of Tehran’s Expediency Council and — wait for it — a former IRGC commander, warned the U.S. to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, saying that the Iranian military is ready for further confrontation: “We advise the U.S. military to end the siege before the Sea of Oman becomes your graveyard.”
According to Rezaei, the U.S. blockade is an “act of war” and Tehran has the right to confront it: “The longer they prolong the naval blockade of Iran, the greater the damage to countries around the world will be.”
Photo Credit: Benoit Tessier/Reuters. Callisto tanker sits anchored in Port Sultan Qaboos in Muscat, Oman, as Iran chokes off traffic in the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel war.
In the meantime, the Iranian parliament continues to pursue legislation to collect tolls for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Iran announced the establishment of a new body tasked with managing the Strait.
Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated “only commercial vessels and parties cooperating with Iran will be able to use the system” managed by the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), and that the Strait of Hormuz will “remain closed to the operators of Project Freedom and Israeli-linked vessels.”
Also on Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei announced that Iranian technical teams met with Oman to “negotiate a mechanism for safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz” and that talks focused on arranging a framework under international laws to prepare a mechanism for “performing this job.”
And it doesn’t stop there.
Photo Credit: TeleGeography. Screenshots taken from www.submarinecablemap.com on May 14, 2026.
On May 9th Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari posted on X that, “We will impose fees on internet cables.”
Iran intends to “charge the world’s largest tech companies for using the subsea internet cables laid under the Strait of Hormuz, and state-linked media outlets have vaguely threatened that traffic could be disrupted if firms don’t pay. Lawmakers in Tehran discussed a plan last week which could target submarine cables linking Arab countries to Europe and Asia.”
Companies like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will have to comply with Iranian law while submarine cable companies would be required to pay licensing fees for cable passage, with repair and maintenance rights given exclusively to Iranian firms.
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POST DEAL MIDDLE EAST SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
On Monday, Iranian lawmaker Ali Khezrian, who sits on the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, foreshadowed what the region will likely experience if the IRGC is allowed to remain in power — threatening the United Arab Emirates, reminding them that the U.S. will eventually leave the region and Iran will “put them through hell.”
That may explain why the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, asked Trump to “hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran … [for a] deal [to] be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.”
Khezrian is correct, though, the U.S. will eventually leave the region and they — the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members — will be left to contend with an IRGC-led government allowed to remain in power.
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REGIME CHANGE?
Whatever deal Trump may or may not make with Iran is bigger than just the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb.
Israel and the U.S. went to war with Iran. Israel has national security issues in addition to a nuclear capable Iran that must be addressed, specifically ballistic missiles, long-range drones and IRGC support to proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Shi’a militias.
As we stated in Friday’s INTREP360, any deal made with Iran “would leave the IRGC in power — and that is going to be a problem for Israel, the countries that make up the GCC, and Iranian citizens for decades to come. Adm. Cooper’s testimony to the SASC won’t be enough to guarantee their national security interests — or the individual freedoms of Iranian civilians, as the Basij paramilitary forces will likely seek out and punish those who opposed the regime.”
Regime change does.
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With no major news today concerning a deal with Iran — the dance continues.
Vahidi should keep in mind the President’s closing comments on his Truth Social post yesterday, “Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military have further instructed the military to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.”
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HOT OFF THE PRESS!
If you are in New York City tomorrow, you can grab a copy of The New Post at your favorite newsstand to read our latest op ed. There is a lot of misinformation out there about the war in Iran. We suggest how best to sort through it.
Photo credit: Reuters. Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam, Oman, May 18th, 2026.
Or you can read it tonight here online.
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Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
When you mention Monty Hall, I think more and more that an episode of Monty Python would be more appropriate. In the French and Belgian press, it seems that some countries of the EU would like to act to protect the passage into the Gulf of Oman, but you know as well as I do that 'weakness', lack of courage and cacophony are characteristics of the countries of the EU: wait and see.