INTREP360 Quick Take: Ukraine’s Stop Strategy to Victory
How do Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Generals defeat Russia in Ukraine?
President Donald Trump seemingly opened the door for Ukraine on September 24 to take the fight directly to Russia when he posted on Truth Social: “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”
This sudden reversal in position towards Russia’s refusal to participate in cease fire and/or peace talks, and their continued demands for Ukraine’s complete capitulation and subjugation under Kremlin rule has set conditions for the U.S. and NATO to enable Ukraine to fight and win back their occupied territories.
But how?
At the moment, Ukraine does not have the manpower necessary to achieve the desired 3:1 ratio required to attack and defeat a defending force. Nor do they have the manpower to win the war of attrition the Kremlin has chosen to fight.
Linear thinking will not win the war; nor will mass. Mass creates targets, and Ukrainian drone operators have become quite efficient in finding and destroying Russian ground forces.
21st century weapons are the great equalizer on today’s battlefield – as is innovation, which is quickly becoming the 10th principle of war. Ukraine has demonstrated their superiority in the fielding of new and modified weapons and developing new tactics to fight the Russian military when and where they least expect it.
To win – Ukraine must set conditions. They do that by employing a Stop Strategy:
1. Stop the bleeding. Ukraine must defeat Russia’s ability to attack them with drones and ballistic missiles. Short of NATO establishing a No-Fly Zone – they must develop an integrated air defense network to destroy inbound drones and missiles. Equally as important – an active defense. It is not enough to shoot drones and missiles out from the sky. They must target and destroy drone production and assembly plants in Russia, mobile ballistic missile launchers, ballistic missile storage facilities and airfields from which Russian bombers launch to attack Ukraine – with precision deep strikes. U.S. Tomahawk missiles, together with other precision deep strike weapons systems provided by NATO countries, coupled with precise targeting data, can significantly degrade the Russian threat.
2. Stop the flow of Russian forces into Ukraine. Interdiction. Target Russian military forces, their equipment, munitions, fuel and logistics in their assembly areas and ports of debarkation (airfields, seaports, railheads, highway networks) in Russia, before they arrive on the battlefield, where they are most vulnerable. Russian forces are losing upwards to 1,000 soldiers a day – isolate and defeat their ability to replenish their losses and sustain the forces in Ukraine, and they wither on the vine, becoming combat ineffective.
3. Stop Russia’s ability to fund the war. Energy exports are Putin’s Achilles Heel. Ukraine must continue to execute Zelensky sanctions – targeting Russian oil refineries and liquid natural gas distribution centers with Ukrainian made drones and missiles. According to BBC, “Some 21 of the country’s [Russia] 38 large refineries – where crude oil is converted into usable fuel like petrol and diesel – have been hit since January, with successful attacks already 48% higher than the whole of 2024.” That not only affects revenue to fund Putin’s ‘special military operation,’ but results in fuel shortages and price increases that affect the average Russian citizen, who has yet to feel the brunt of Putin’s failures in Ukraine.
Conditions are set when Ukraine successfully implements their Stop strategy. An isolated, weakened and exhausted Russian military in Ukraine will be unable to resist a Ukrainian combined arms counteroffensive.