INTREP360 Quick Take: Cautiously Optimistic
Ukraine is in a position to fight and win all their territory back
In his Truth Social message on Tuesday President Donald Trump appeared to open the door for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals to take the fight to Russia: “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form … Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that!”
But the President’s encouragement/endorsement does not come with direct U.S. support; rather, weapons sold to NATO, then provided to Ukraine.
Ukraine is fully capable of winning back their country, but the conditions they need to set require significant support in the form of intelligence, weapons, ammunition and logistics. Yet, Ukraine does not have the manpower to engage Russian defenses directly. They do not have the desired 3:1 force ratio necessary to defeat the 700,000 soldiers Russian President Vladimir Putin claims are currently fighting in Ukraine.
We provided a possible course of action in the Kyiv Post in July. One that relies heavily on interdiction to stop the flow of Russian forces into Ukraine and denies them the ability to sustain their forces. It is a modern-day version of siege warfare that isolates Russian forces in Ukraine and leaves them to wither on the vine. Once conditions are set and the Russian army attrited, then a combined arms Ukrainian ground assault to drive them out of the country is possible.
But unlike the last counteroffensive that took place on the watch of President Joe Biden, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Staff Gen. Mark Milley – team Trump must allow Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with Western weapon systems and munitions – and must afford air superiority and close air support.
Russia’s on-going hybrid war against the West stops when they are defeated in Ukraine. Europe must enable Ukraine to win – even if that means swimming in the deep end of the pool without the reassurance of a U.S. lifeguard.
It’s “all in time.” Successful siege warfare has been accomplished before in Ukraine during the Battle of Perekop 105 years ago in November 1920.
