INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

02.09.2026

February 9^th, 2026

Greetings! In 1976, the catchphrase “Follow the money” quickly became ubiquitous in the U.S. after “Deep Throat”—who decades later was revealed to be Deputy Director of the FBI Mark Felt—uttered the words to Bob Woodward’s character in the Watergate-era classic movie “All the President’s Men.”

Alas, Felt never said those words in real life. However, it was good advice then & it is good advice now in unmasking Russia’s playbook in trying to win at the negotiating table what his armies can’t achieve on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Photo credit: Unknown. Russian Putin matryoshka nesting dolls.

Fortunately—for our purposes here—Russian President Vladimir Putin’s version of “Deep Throat” is a loudmouth. We also know his name: Kirill Dmitriev—Putin’s special so-called peace envoy to the U.S.

Full disclosure to our new readers: Dmitriev despises us—and has blocked Jon on X. Putin’s equivalent of a mafia bagman thinks we are weirdos & warmongers.

Kirill Dmitriev@kadmitriev

The Hill runs a weak opinion piece on me by 2 warmongers. Their 3 “attacks”: 1. I said President Putin supports traditional values (he does); 2. I said Mamdani is a communist (he is); 3. I’m “Ukraine-focused” (under 3% of my posts about Ukraine). Get facts right, weirdos & MSM🧵

1:04 PM · Nov 6, 2025 · 65.6K Views

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153 Replies · 408 Reposts · 2.04K Likes

Projection is a thing. Dmitriev is the truly weird one here. After all, he’s the one who is under U.S. Treasury sanctions.

Let’s get started. As we do, pay close attention to Dmitriev’s purported $12 trillion plan—bribe?—to end the war.

It is suspiciously familiar. We think we know why. See if you agree & let us know in the comments. We will respond!

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Trying to understand Putin’s negotiating position in Ukraine is similar to opening a set of wooden Russian matryoshka nesting dolls. Open the first one & an even more duplicitous version of Putin is inside that is out to deceive the West.

That’s exactly what the Kremlin is out to achieve. To cast doubt, portray themselves as the victim rather than what they are—the aggressor and war criminals—and drive wedges between the United States, their NATO allies, and Ukraine.

On January 30^th, Reuters reported that Dmitriev was unexpectedly flying back to Miami for an emergency meeting with Trump administration officials. The visit came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that neither U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff nor President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner would participate in the trilateral talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi for February 1^st-2^nd.

Photo credit: Sputnik. Putin left, meets with Dmitriev, right at the Kremlin.

As we noted last week in the Kyiv Post, Dmitriev is Putin’s money man—charged with creating economic opportunities. Plus, like his boss, Dmitriev subscribes to Sun Tzu’s principls. Dmitriev knows Trump & Witkoff.

They met—and according to Witkoff, the meeting was “productive and constructive.” Then presto—just like that––the trilateral meetings were back on for February 4^th-5^th.

But why? What was the outcome of the Miami “pre-Super Bowl-like” football huddle? Equally importantly, what was its intended outcome?

Yet it was crickets from the White House, and this time around, Dmitriev—media-hungry as he is—remained silent as well.

After the first day of the trilateral meetings, it was announced that Moscow & Kyiv would conduct a prisoner exchange, and that the U.S. & Russia would “reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue.”

Notably, there were no reports of discussion on any progress concerning the disputed Donbas region or U.S. / NATO security guarantees—specifically, military forces stationed in Ukraine post-war.

That was seemingly lost upon the U.S. delegation—which included U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll & General Alexus Grynkewich, Commander, U.S. European Command & NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). The stated purpose for the negotiations was to set conditions to end the war.

So why was it—seemingly—dropped from the trilateral agenda in Abu Dhabi? Kyiv has clearly stated that nothing can be agreed upon until security guarantees for Ukraine from the U.S., NATO & the so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ are in place.

Is it because Putin—bizarrely—believes he gets a vote on Ukraine’s post-war security guarantees & needs?

Or was that the purpose of Dmitriev’s surprise visit to Miami? To buy—in effect—Putin that vote in Abu Dhabi?

Photo credit: Sputnik. Dmitriev, left, meets Witkoff, right, at the Kremlin in April 2025.

Either way, we knew beforehand how Putin would vote—Nyet!

Team Trump is stuck and no one is willing to push—confront—Russia off its weak negotiating position.

There are other obstacles to add to the list—a ceasefire, control of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the size of the Ukrainian military, an agreed-upon border, & weapons systems the West can provide Ukraine for its defense.

The outcome of Abu Dhabi talks—on a surface level & in terms of ending the war—was underwhelming at best save fora prisoner of war exchange.

Putin—in our view—was the only winner. Moscow got renewed bilateral cooperation between Russia & the U.S.—and outrageously was able to continue with impunity its ballistic missile & drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector, critical infrastructure, and residential neighborhoods (many of them war crimes).

That was just day one. To further muddy the waters, it remains unclear what transpired on the second day of negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave us some insight. He claimed that Dmitriev dangled a $12 trillion‘economic cooperation package’—more than four times Russia’s annual GDP––before Team Trump.

Thus far, the White House has not commented on this report.

As the fog lifts, we learned on Saturday that the U.S. is pressing—unrealistically, in our opinion—Ukraine & Russia to reach a comprehensive peace agreement as early as March. Or by late June at the latest.

Ditto urging Kyiv to ‘consider’ holding national elections and a referendum shortly afterward—the former, long a Putin aim to try to topple Zelensky. Once again—unjustifiably—the Kremlin is ‘circling back’ to their contention that Zelensky’s government is illegitimate.

Seemingly, the U.S. is losing interest, and it seems to be getting to the point of “not my problem.” But “not my problem” is transitioning to “can’t get there from here.”

If so, that means a ‘forever war.’

Especially since NATO & the ‘coalition of the willing’ are not stepping up to bring the war to an end either. They are still waiting safely on the sidelines for the U.S. to solve the problem for Europe.

John Berg Sjoholm—a geopolitical & political-business consultant—pegged Europe’s inaction perfectly on his Substack.

“Europe’s Ukraine policy is not constrained by values. It is constrained by a refusal to decide. What is presented as prudence is, in practice, nonproductive sentiment management: the continuous modulation of language and posture to avoid commitment while sustaining the appearance of action. What is being produced is neither neutrality nor sovereignty. It is paralysis disguised as responsibility.”

Sjoholm’s overarching argument is that ‘Europe is refusing to be consequential’ & in doing so is letting the U.S.—if not Putin—dictate its future.

Like the U.S., Europe has completely skipped the part about getting Russia to stop attacking & prematurely transitioned straight into a dubious multi-tiered plan to enforce any post-war ceasefire violations with Russia. It envisions the post-war deployment of NATO peacekeeping forces to Ukraine—a plan Putin repeatedly says is a non-negotiable redline for Russia.

Pardon the interruption but there is still a very hot war going on in Ukraine. Ending it hinges on the Donbas & neither side is budging.

(Nor should Ukraine. The Donbas is its sovereign territory.)

So, what was Dmitriev trying to buy—bribe?—in Miami by floating a $12 trillion economic cooperation package?

Was it a deal sweetener? Does it take us back to the alleged deal Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said was reached between Putin & Trump during their Alaska Summit last year? One that possibly involves the “massive Sakhalin-1 [oil] project”?

Is Russian oil the tool to keep Putin at the negotiation table? We addressed that potential strategy in our Kyiv Post opinion article entitled “Follow the Oil.”

Photo credit: RUSI. Putin, left, meets with Trump, right, in Alaska, August 2025.

Trump is putting the squeeze on Russian oil through secondary sanctions—and he just got Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to replace India’s Russian crude imports with oil from Venezuela & the U.S.

But does the White House really believe economic cooperation with Russia—at the potential expense of NATO and Ukraine—is the best path forward?

To be a fly on the wall in the White House Situation Room. Ditto in the Kremlin. Especially to confirm if we are right about where Kirill Dmitriev came up with his $12 trillion economic package (if not bribe).

As we noted last July in The Hill, the value of all of Ukraine’s known rare earth minerals is estimated to be $11.5 trillion. While we can’t know, we highly doubt that’s a coincidence on the part of Dmitriev.

Of course—in the long run—it would be fool’s gold. Putin at the end of the day will not honor it any more than he honored Minsk or Budapest.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments!

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ICYMI!

If you want to read the article that got Dmitriev angry at us, you can find it here at The Hill.

Photo credit: Pavel Bednyakov / AP.

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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!

Jon & Mark

Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.

Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.