INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
07.21.2026: UKRAINE TO PUTIN: VENI, VIDI, INCENDERE!
July 21st, 2026
Greetings!
Ukraine’s fight against Russia is not your father’s war. Nor is it your grandfather’s war. It is, in nearly every respect, a very modern-21st-century conflict.
Russia?
Not so much. They are largely fighting a World War I-style of war in the Donbas wherein trench warfare reigns supreme. Even to the extent the Kremlin is deploying modern ballistic missiles and drones, they are doing so like German Chancellor Adolf Hitler during World War II and disproportionately aiming them at civilian targets.
Most people live and learn. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not your average bloke. He is, like many dictators before him in history, proving that he is a terrible wartime commander and leading his country to defeat.
Ukraine, meanwhile, despite a political crisis involving the sacking by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of Mykhailo Fedorov, the country’s former young dynamic Defense Minister, is continuing to find new ways for Putin to – as Jon likes to put it – feel the pain of his faltering war.
If you simply looked at the headlines – Zelensky was forced to backtrack today and ended up firing Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), who had clashed with Fedorov – you would think Ukraine is losing.
They are not. Ukraine continues to take its highly innovative war to deep inside of Russia, and its latest target set includes Wildberries – the Russian version of Amazon.
Photo credit: Igor Sushko / X. Ukraine targeted and destroyed the Wildberries e-commerce distribution hub in Krasnodar, Russia on July 21st, 2026.
Plus, given the promised return of Fedorov, who is largely responsible for the AFU’s innovative drone war against Russia, and the appointment of Mykhailo Drapatyi, who has been described as “a popular and innovative general, as the new AFU commander, it is highly likely Ukraine’s tactics evolve even more.
Today, in an unusual move for us, as our INTREP360 Intelligence Reports tend to be more sweeping, we are going to narrowly focus on Ukraine’s efforts to destroy Wildberries, a vital supply chain for Russia’s economy and its own military drone production programs across the Russian motherland.
Essentially, it is a story of they came, they saw, they burned, and in the process are creating the ultimate fire sale. Or as Jo, a longtime reader and former high school classmate of Mark’s put it in Latin, “Veni, Vidi, Incendere!”
Let’s get started!
***
TAMING THE WILDEBEEST, ER, WILDBERRIES
Thus far in July, the AFU has conducted five long-range drone strikes against key distribution centers of Wildberries, a Russian e-commerce giant. Its Kotovsk warehouse, approximately 295 miles southeast of Moscow was the first to be hit on July 18th. The facility was hit by multiple Ukrainian drones and was set ablaze.
Shortly afterwards, on July 18th, the Elektrostal facility, described as one of Wildberries’ largest with over 8,000 employees, was also hit by the AFU. According to the Moscow Times “Russian analysts have estimated the total economic damage caused by the attacks at up to 100 billion rubles ($1.3 billion), making it one of the costliest strikes on Russia’s commercial infrastructure since the start of the war.”
Photo credit: Moscow Times: Smoke billows from a Wildberries warehouse in Elektrostal, Moscow region on July 18th, 2026.
Zelensky justified these initial attacks by claiming on Telegram that they distribute “sanctioned components [to manufacture] drone production and navigation equipment.”
Three days later, the AFU was back at it. The Wildberries’ distribution center in Nevinomyssk, which is located in southern Russia east of the Black Sea toward the border of Georgia, was struck by multiple drones and set ablaze.
One more was hit today in Krasnodar. It was not a good day for Russians waiting on caviar or vodka deliveries from Wildberries.
Earlier, a fifth Wildberries site in Kotovsk was reported as being hit as well. As OSINTtechnical noted on X, “half of Wildberries’ ten largest distribution centers have been destroyed [by the AFU] in the last week.
***
PUTIN’S ECONOMY TAKES A HIT
Bloomberg News reported that Wildberries processes merchandise and goods that are nearly equivalent to 3% of Russia’s GDP. Thousands of small business owners have lost inventory and are facing immediate cashflow crises and likely will be unable to pay taxes, salaries, and make payments to their own suppliers.
Plus, as noted by The Moscow Times, force majeure clauses limit Wildberries’ liability to these owners. As always in Putin’s Russia, it is the little guy or gal that pays the biggest price for his blunder of a war in Ukraine.
Equally significantly, unless Wildberries can quickly evacuate its remaining facilities, that pain is likely to quickly get worse. Yet even evacuating the facilities will cause a massive disruption in Russia’s supply chain.
If you need a bingo card, UAVoyager, a Ukrainian account on X, has created one listing pictures of twenty-five Wildberries’ distribution warehouses.
Photo credit: UAVoyager / X. A bingo card picturing 25 of Wildberries’ distribution hubs throughout Russia.
***
FEDOROV’S VISION
On a somewhat exponential basis, the AFU’s operational reach deep inside of Russia has grown by leaps and bounds in 2026. Fedorov – the recently sacked Ukrainian Defense Minister we referenced above – was a huge proponent of Ukraine’s drone warfare strategy against Russia on the frontlines and deep inside the Russian motherland.
Up until now, the AFU’s ongoing strikes deep inside of Russia have largely been concentrated against Russian oil and energy infrastructure and launch sites for Russian bombers, drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles.
Now, thanks to Ukraine’s increasing ability to mass produce unmanned short- and long-range aerial drones with constantly improving range and accuracy specs, Kyiv is expanding its target sets to further damage Putin’s economy and ability to wage war.
During the American Revolution, colonists melted pewter mugs to make bullets. Today, many Ukrainians are building drones in their basements. The need for survival, is indeed, the mother of all invention.
Fortunately for Ukraine – and not so fortunately for Putin – Fedorov will be back in a senior capacity in Zelensky’s government. As such, expect Ukraine’s war to expel Russia from its territory to get even more innovative.
Indeed, a modern-day David is badly beating an increasingly bewildered and clueless Russian Goliath.
***
RUSSIA IS WIDE OPEN FOR UKRAINIAN ‘BUSINESS’
Putin is also quickly finding out that Russia is largely defenseless at scale against Ukraine’s unrelenting use of drone swarm tactics. Ukrainian drones are cheap to produce, they fly at low altitudes and in swarms, and Russia’s air defense assets are already stretched as is.
Given the wide dispersal of Russian military facilities, their isolation is also what is – ironically – making them increasingly vulnerable to the AFU. Plus, there is no quick solution to be had for Moscow.
Suddenly, we are back to Winston Churchill’s admonition that, “The bomber will always get through.”
Except, this time, it is a drone.
***
PUTIN IS IN TROUBLE
For much of the war, Putin was able to shield the people of Moscow and St. Petersburg from the realities of his failing so-called ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. Previously, only an occasional Ukrainian drone would get through.
Now, if we fast-forward to today, Russia’s elite are seeing the war for themselves up close and personal on a near daily basis. Of course, they are crying foul. In their twisted minds, it is morally okay for Russia to intentionally attack Ukrainian civilians in apartment blocks, hospitals, schools, restaurants, and city parks, however, it is an outrage when the AFU causes gas – or now, as is the case, Wildberries – shortages.
Slowly, however, Russians are waking up to the reality that Putin has no conventional military path to winning the war in Ukraine. Earlier last week, Karen Chakhnazarov, a well-known Russian war hawk, said on Vladimir Solokov’s top rated talk show on Russia-1, that “This war is destroying us.”
It is indeed.
Russians would do well to destroy Putin before he completely destroys Russia for decades to come.
***
ICYMI #1
Earlier today, Mark appeared on Al Qahera TV News in Cairo, Egypt to discuss the latest developments between the U.S. and Iran. He was skeptical that a renewed Qatari-Pakistani push for a 10-day ceasefire would work.
Mark also said that if a ceasefire deal was struck, it likely would not hold for long. It would only lead to a rinse and repeat.
You can watch a clip here or the entire episode here. The program is in Arabic.
***
Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.