INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
07.01.2026: IS A DESPERATE VLADIMIR PUTIN PLANNING THE UNTHINKABLE?
July 1st, 2026
Greetings!
Jon is still off today enjoying the beaches of the Dominican Republic with his wife. He will be back in action here tomorrow.
Alas, with no sand or surf in sight, the story that caught my eye today was from Reuters. They are reporting that Andrei Belousov, Russia’s defense minister, personally approved China’s “covert military training of Russian forces.”
The covert training, which took place last year in China, focused on radiological, chemical, and biological (CBR) protection. CBR training is standard operating procedure for most modern-day armies. Largely, it is for defensive purposes.
AI image credit: Grok. Fictional depiction of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin wearing CBR protective gear.
However, that does not mean this kind of training cannot support offensive use of radiological, chemical, or biological weapons.
Plus, it is concerning on multiple levels. One, Dragon Bear training, especially when it involves interoperability exercises like this one, is alarming. Two, does it portend further Chinese military involvement in Ukraine?
The third?
This is potentially the most alarming one. Does this foreshadow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to introduce CBR weapons at scale in Ukraine as his grip on power starts to slip in Moscow?
Let’s get started exploring these concerns as well as detailing what is known about Russia’s offensive CBR weapons.
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RUSSIA’S CBR CAPABILITIES ARE FORMIDABLE
In the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian Federation inherited a large-scale CBR program. Many of its capabilities are embedded in the Russian Ministry of Defense [MoD]. Officially, they are for defensive purposes only; however, U.S. intelligence has long-assessed that Russia maintains offensive CBR weapons.
The embedded agencies include the 48th Central Scientific-Research Institute (48th TNII) which is located in the infamous Soviet era Sergiev Posad-6 base. The agency is currently run by Sergey Vladimirovich Borisevich.
Photo credit: Maxar. Satellite photograph of Sergiev Posad-6, a notorious Soviet era Russian CBR facility.
It is the leading institute responsible for defending against — and in our assessment, weaponizing — infectious diseases and biological threats. The 48th TNII has a microbiology lab in Kirov and another facility in Yekaterinburg.
In 2024, the Washington Post reported that satellite imagery taken a couple of months after the launch of Putin’s special military operation on February 24th, 2022, indicated that the Russians were adding 10 new buildings totaling 250,000 square feet at Sergiev Posad-6.
The Kremlin’s cover story?
According to the Washington Post, Russian officials “publicly confirmed that [its MoD] scientists will use the labs to study deadly microbes such as the Ebola viruses, in an effort to strengthen the country’s defenses against bioterrorism as well as future pandemics.”
Spare us.
The Soviet Union was notorious for using the same excuse to cover its weaponization of so-called CBR threats.
There are additional Russian so-called research agencies. The 27th Scientific Center, located in Moscow, was run by Colonel-General Stanislav Petrov until he reportedly committed suicide in May. It is the leading MoD institute on chemical and biological matters.
The 33rd Central Scientific Research and Testing Institute, located in Shikhany, is headed by Valery Alexandrovich Inozemtsev. Its primary role is chemical weapons testing, research, and development of delivery systems.
The State Scientific Research Institute of Organic Chemistry and Technology, located in Moscow, is headed by Alexander Valeryevich Kutkin. It is also focused on chemical weapons development and research.
Photo credit: Yandex Maps. The State Scientific Research Institute of Organic Chemistry and Technology, located in Moscow, Russia.
There are numerous other MoD facilities and scientific units that focus on epidemiology, hygiene, microbiology, decontamination, protection, and field response.
Maj. Gen. Alexei Vikorovich Viktorovich Rtizhev is in overall military command of Russia’s CBR weapons program. His umbrella unit is called the Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops (RCB).
The U.S. has sanctioned Rtizhev, RCB, the 48th TNII, the 27th Scientific Center, the 33rd Central Scientific Research and Testing Institute, and a myriad of other Russian CBR related research and procurement officials and entities. In addition, the European Union has sanctioned many of the aforementioned.
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CBR TRAINING IN CHINA
During the 2025 joint military training exercises in China, in addition to training Russian troops in drones, Reuters reported that there was also “a three-week session focused on radiological, chemical and biological protection at a military facility in Beijing in November.”
Training sessions included examining a model of a nuclear reactor, “chemical reconnaissance,” “radiation reconnaissance,” and “protecting ventilation systems from contamination.” According to European intelligence agencies, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) trained 200 Russian soldiers during these sessions.
Beijing denied the report and in a statement to Reuters, the Chinese foreign ministry said it is neutral in the Ukraine conflict and that “the relevant allegations [regarding CBR training] are entirely unfounded.
Moscow denied it as well.
Notably, Kaja Kallas, the European Union foreign policy chief, went on record saying that “Brussels had confirmed through its own channels that the training had taken place and was now assessing the implications.”
Beijing, according to Reuters characterized her statement as “nothing but smears.” Call me suspicious, but China doth protest too much.
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“NO LIMITS” DRAGON-BEAR PARTNERSHIP
Beijing can deny Kallas’ claim all they want, however, Ukrainian intelligence in May confirmed that Russian soldiers who were covertly trained in China are now fighting in Ukraine. European intelligence agencies confirmed it as well.
The irony is not the denial. Russia and China have long hidden by false renunciations. The bigger question is why.
After all, in February, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia in a telephone call with Putin. Notably, Xi made that call on the fourth anniversary of the start of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.
One, why is Xi hiding behind alleged neutrality given that his call took place with Putin on February 24th?
That does not exactly scream neutrality.
Two, why hide it at all given the “no limits’ partnership between China and Russia that has been repeatedly touted by Xi and Putin?
Are the denials because Beijing and Moscow are hiding something else?
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RUSSIAN GENERALS ENTER THE CHAT
Maybe so. Notably, two Russian generals participated in the Chinese CBR training sessions in 2025.
Col. Gen. Rustam Muradov, the deputy commander-in-chief of Russia’s land forces, headed Moscow’s group. He was also accompanied in China by Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, who is currently the commander of the Kazan Higher Tank Command School (he is not to be confused with Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff and the author of the Gerasimov Doctrine).
Significantly, on the Chinese side, PLA Maj. Gen. Li Jinsun, the chief of the China’s Military Academy of Radiological and Biological Defense, was also a primary participant in the Chinese training of Russian forces.
Granted, as noted above, every army trains for CBR. NATO, as an alliance, does so as well for defensive purposes. The Combined Joint CBRN Defense Force is responsible for training NATO forces.
Photo credit: Senior Airman Madelyn Keech / U.S. Air Force. U.S. Air Force Airmen assigned to various bases across the U.S. and Europe work with an Italian air force explosive ordnance disposal team to respond to a scenario during NATO Exercise Toxic Trip 23 at Koksijde Air Base, Belgium, September 25th, 2023
Yet, given Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine, CBR training is hardly its greatest priority. Unless, of course, it becomes central to ensuring Putin’s political survival. As Jon and I argued at The Hill last week, if Crimea falls or becomes untenable for Russian forces, then Putin might not survive the fallout.
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DROWNING MAN
Putin is in many ways a drowning man. His three-day ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has turned into a national nightmare as we outlined here last week.
Desperate men often do desperate things.
Could using CBR offensive weapons be one of them? To be clear, I am not predicting that Putin will resort to this.
I am only connecting the dots to suggest that he may –– emphasis on ‘may’ –– be preparing to do so as a potential last-ditch effort to save himself in Ukraine.
Putin does not need China’s help on the CBR weapons themselves. Russia has long developed its own expertise and arsenals.
However, the Russian MoD could use help in CBR defensive training in case Russian offensive use of CBR weapons creates a boomerang effect on Russian forces. Plus, if CBR is used as an offensive force multiplier, then Russian commanders will need to be prepared on how to advance through their impact on the battlefield.
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IS KYIV PROLOGUE?
As I close out tonight’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, I cannot help but notice the heinous Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks over the past several hours on Ukrainian civilians throughout Kyiv. Putin, by the day, is getting more and more desperate and more and more reckless.
For now, they are just filled with bombs. However, I am haunted by this nagging notion that one day, God forbid, they carry a CBR weapon.
NATO, to prevent that, must be clear in its stated consequences to Putin if Russia ever launches a wide-scale CBR attack on Ukraine. NATO must also do everything possible to ensure the Armed Forces of Ukraine are prepared to defend themselves.
Once again, tonight’s INTREP360 is cautionary, not predictive. I was never a Boy Scout let alone a Cub Scout, but their motto of being prepared is warranted here.
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PROGRAMMING NOTE
Tomorrow, in our weekly Thursday 7 AM national security column in The Hill in Washington, D.C., we examine the claim of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that he has “tamed” President Donald Trump.
Iran is certainly convinced it has. Will it be proven true?
You can read it here when it goes live.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.