INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
04.17.2026
April 17th, 2026
Greetings!
Mark is back in St. Louis, & Jon has unpacked in Puerto Rico, which means we are now back at full strength after a hectic week of travel, family celebrations & filing taxes.
Meanwhile, what a crazy day. President Donald Trump was all but declaring victory & mission accomplished in the morning. Team Iran — especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — by evening was saying not so fast.
AI image credit: Grok. Graphic showing U.S. & Iranian flags asking Mission Accomplished?
Crazy indeed.
Well, not really, if you have been reading our INTREP360 Intelligence Reports for the last couple of days. It is clear — whether by design or not — Team Trump is dealing with a fractured Iranian regime.
As we’ve repeatedly cautioned, while Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, may be the face of Tehran’s negotiating team, they are not the decision-makers.
That would be Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the IRGC & a man by the name of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Both men are regime hardliners & products of the IRGC. Neither is likely to go down without a fight as both see Iran’s fight against the U.S. & Israel as an existential threat to the Khamenei regime.
Plus — and this is no small matter — they control the guns & the Basij, the regime’s street-level enforcers.
Ghalibaf & Araghchi do not. While they have the appearance & titles of power — along with the mullahs including the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — in reality, especially after Ali Khamenei’s death, they are figureheads at best.
So, what to make of today & what it portends?
Let’s get started eliminating the fog of war — and Iranian diplomacy — placing it all in context of what is likely really happening.
***
MAXIMUM WIN! OR NOT?
Earlier this morning at 8:06 AM ET, Trump posted on Truth Social that the Iranian regime had announced that “THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE.”
Prior to his announcement — twenty-three minutes to be exact — Araghchi had posted on X the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for the duration of the ceasefire based on the “coordinated route” as specified by Iran’s Ports & Maritime Organization.
Let’s break that down.
First, surely, the President didn’t mean to call the Strait of Hormuz the “Strait of Iran,” especially since the official U.S. position is that Iran does not “own” the strategic international waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
Second, as our good friend Mike Pregent observed on X — and a former colleague of Jon’s — “coordinated route” was Iranian code for ensuring Tehran could collect tolls on any ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Ostensibly, in Trump’s eyes, this was the first win of the day. More — in his view — were to come.
Soon after, Trump posted on Truth Social that “The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust” [his term for the 440.9 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to 60%], created by our great B2 Bombers [last June].”
Win #2.
Then, as if taking a victory lap, albeit a premature one, Trump posted a thank you to “Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar for your great bravery.” Later on, he also thanked Pakistan and its “Great Prime Minister [Shehbaz Sharif] and Field Marshal [Asim Munir, the country’s Chief of Army Staff & Chief of Defense Forces], two fantastic people!!!”
Yet more wins — according to Trump — were in the making. He then posted that “Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed, or is removing, all sea mines!”
That was win #3.
The next purported win — during a telephone interview Trump had today with CBS News — was that Iran had agreed to stop the IRGC from training & sponsoring its Axis of Resistance proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah & the Houthis. During that same interview, he reiterated that Iran had “agreed to everything.”
On the surface, that was win #4 and game, set & match wrapped up into one. Seeing, hearing & digesting in real time, it just seemed too good to be true. Or as Mark posted on X, it was like waking to hear you learned you had just won the billion-dollar Powerball jackpot. Good news but unbelievable still.
Taken all together, they in effect represented all of Trump’s maximalist demands of Iran that Vice President JD Vance had delivered to Ghalibaf & Araghchi in Islamabad during their weekend negotiations.
Likewise, in the face of Trump’s crushing naval blockade of Iranian ports in western & southern Iran, it was as if Iran — especially the IRGC — was agreeing to the very unconditional surrender Trump called for on March 6th.
Or was it?
***
WAS LEBANON THE BAIT?
Perhaps it was designed as something more than that to ensnare Ghalibaf and Araghchi — and Lebanon was used as the bait?
Washington, under the auspices of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has been working to implement a ceasefire between Israel & Lebanon. In reality, the 10-day ceasefire that was agreed to between Beirut & Jerusalem — or perhaps, imposed upon them by Team Trump — is really about effecting a ceasefire between Israel & Hezbollah.
On March 1st, Hezbollah — in unity with the Islamic Republic of Iran and perhaps, as one analyst put it, on a “practically a [suicidal] mission” — began launching rockets & drones at northern & central Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by ordering air strikes against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, including Beirut.
Then, on March 16th, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a limited ground operation to begin expanding its self-declared buffer zone up to the Litani River. The IDF’s stated purpose was to prevent Hezbollah forces using it to conduct attacks against Israel.
Early on — prior to U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad last weekend — Ghalibaf tried, in vain, to create linkage between a ceasefire in Lebanon & a ceasefire in Iran. Then, shortly after Trump announced the truce, Ghalibaf did a victory dance on X implying that Iran — through the “unity of the Axis of Resistance” — was responsible.
Fast forward to today.
Trump repeatedly stated today that the truce in Lebanon had absolutely nothing to do with the alleged Iranian concessions of late. His first pushback on Ghalibaf — on Truth Social — was, “Again! This deal is not tied, in any way, to Lebanon.”
That begs the question whether Team Trump used Lebanon as bait to get Ghalibaf to concede on enrichment, proxies & opening the Strait of Hormuz. If so, then what was its real purpose? Was it to divide the regime?
***
TEAM IRGC PUSHES BACK
Early in the day, it became clear that Vahidi & Zolghadr — and by extension the IRGC — were not having any of Ghalibaf & Araghchi’s nonsense. Nor — equally as clearly — were they in agreement with any of Trump’s claims.
Araghchi felt the wrath first. Tasnim News — a semi-official Iranian media company with close ties to the IRGC — harshly condemned him in a string of posts on X. They began calling it a “bad and incomplete” post. Then they said it was “published without the necessary and sufficient explanations.”
Then came the threat. Tasnim said that Araghchi & the Iranian foreign ministry “must either reconsider this type of communication or the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council must fulfill its duty.”
Ouch. Araghchi may want to consider staying in Islamabad if he gets the chance during the next set of peace talks if they happen.
As we often note here, actions speak louder than words. Thus far, especially today, the IRGC’s actions are saying, in effect, ‘No deal, Mr. President.’
Earlier today, Ghalibaf announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed given “the continuation of the [U.S.] blockade [of Iran’s ports].” Plus, according to Martin Kelly, who monitors maritime risks, the IRGC broadcast a warning that all ships wanting to transit the strait had to ask permission.
He also noted that the unverified communication said, “the Strait will be at the order of Khamenei and ‘not some idiot’.” We don’t know if it is real.
That said, actions speak louder than words. Numerous vessels attempting to enter the Strait of Hormuz were repeatedly turned away as tracked by Marine Traffic.
The IRGC — one way or the other — is saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed no matter what Trump is claiming.
***
GHALIBAF PANICS
Ghalibaf — regardless of whether he was played by Team Trump or not — is clearly in panic mode. Either way, he’s between the proverbial Trump rock & an IRGC hard place. Earlier this evening, Ghalibaf — or whoever is posting for him in the U.S. — took to X and bluntly accused Trump of lying.
He said, “The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false.”
His messaging wasn’t aimed at Trump. It was likely aimed at Vahidi & Zolghadr & in effect a preemptive plea to spare him a traitor’s death. The irony of his mea culpa — of course — is in trying to avoid the hangman’s noose in Tehran, he is potentially putting a U.S. target on his back, if not now, then after the ceasefire is over.
Dead men tell no tales. They also can’t declare unconditional surrender. Ghalibaf — clearly — is in an unenviable position.
***
SUBTRACTION BY DIVISION?
It is too early to know exactly what we are seeing. Our too early assessment is that Team Trump is trying to divide — fracture? — the regime’s leadership in Tehran. He likely wants the IRGC to doubt Ghalibaf & Araghchi and he likely wants Ghalibaf & Araghchi to fear the IRGC to try & force a rupture.
While it briefs well, we highly suspect it won’t work. This isn’t mission accomplished yet. In all likelihood, more kinetic U.S. action is needed to bring Vahidi & Zolghadr to the table — or to, ideally in our view, collapse the regime entirely.
Meanwhile, Trump is continuing his maximum pressure campaign against the IRGC. In a late night post on Truth Social, he noted how pleased — purportedly — Chinese President Xi Jinping is that the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened.
Stay tuned!
***
Thank you for reading. We will see you Monday. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
"Dallas", Season 2026 , episode 18.
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