INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
06.01.2026: IRAN PLAYS A NEW TRUMP CARD
June 1st, 2026
Greetings!
We are a month and three days away from 4th of July fireworks — the 250th ones! — but you’d be forgiven if you thought they were all going off today in Washington, D.C.
The build-up to today’s fireworks started just a few minutes after midnight. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that, “Iran really wants to make a deal” and implored elected officials and media pundits to “Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – It always does.”
The day ended with Barak Ravid’s explosive report in Axios saying that Trump dressed down Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “during a profanity-laced phone call” according to two senior U.S. officials.
Photo credit: Eric Lee / The New York Times. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel (left) and President Trump in the Oval Office, in April 2025.
Iran, in our view, was the only winner today. Let’s get started filling in what happened between. There is a lot to cover.
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IRAN SENDS TRUMP A MESSAGE IN KUWAIT
The Islamic Republic of Iran saw things differently than Trump did in his midnight post earlier today.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) answered it by attacking U.S. forces stationed at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, tweeted, “Iran’s strikes against those bases & assets that are used to launch unlawful attacks against Iran are a lawful exercise of self-defense.”
This was the second time in three days that Iran attacked the airbase. The first attack left five U.S. soldiers and contractors injured. It also damaged two MQ-9A Reaper drones, each costing $50 million.
Conveniently, Baghaei omitted mentioning that Iran prompted in the first place the Saturday and Sunday U.S. strikes on Iranian radar installations and drone sites in Goruk, Qeshm Island, and Sirik inside Iran. CENTCOM characterized the weekend U.S. strikes as “measured and deliberate” and in response to Iran shooting down a U.S. MQ-1 drone that was operating in international waters.
By this point in the day, it was not clear whether Trump got the message. Iran, as it turned out, would be sending him more messages.
***
IRAN SENDS ISRAEL A MESSAGE
Hours after Iran’s ballistic missile and drone attack in Kuwait, Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, ratcheted up the heat in Lebanon. He declared that any “violation of the ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel on one front is a violation on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
Araghchi, likely at the behest of Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the IRGC, clearly was trying to seize the narrative as well as expand the playing board to include Hezbollah and Lebanon in the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations to enter into a Memorandum of Understanding to end the war in the Persian Gulf.
The only question was, would it work?
***
NETANYAHU RESPONDS TO IRAN
Israel quickly signaled that Iran’s gambit was not going to work, at least as far as Jerusalem and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were concerned.
Netanyahu defiantly declared in response that, “There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens, and its terrorist headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiyeh, remains out of bounds.”
Soon after, the IDF issued evacuation orders for Dahiyeh, suggesting that Israeli airstrikes on the Hezbollah stronghold were in the making.
Ever since Hamas’ heinous Oct. 7 massacre, Israel has continued to meet every direct and indirect Iranian provocation by climbing the escalation ladder. The Israelis did it in Gaza by killing most of Hamas’ top leadership, including Yahya Sinwar on October 24th, 2024.
They did it again in Lebanon by killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 28th, 2024, only days after Operation Grim Reaper killed dozens of its top commanders on September 17th that same year.
Today, Netanyahu signaled to Iran that it intends to keep climbing up that escalation ladder as needed.
However, Iran had an answer.
***
TEHRAN PLAYS A NEW TRUMP CARD
Shortly after Netanyahu’s declaration and the IDF evacuation order for Dahiyeh, Iran announced via Tasnim, a semi-state-controlled media company, that it was immediately suspending talks with the United States and would not resume them until Israel stops attacking Lebanon and withdraws all its forces from the country.
As we wrote in The Washington Star today, that is not going to happen. Israel will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon. Nor will Jerusalem subordinate its national-security interests in Lebanon to peace talks to end the war in Iran.
Especially when Iran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs have not been completely destroyed.
Oct. 7 fundamentally changed Israel’s calculus toward Iran and its ‘Axis of Resistance’ proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The IDF has been on offense ever since, and it is not going to stop until Iran’s ability to threaten Israel is eliminated.
However, by this point, Trump still had not weighed in on Israel’s threat to bomb Hezbollah targets in Beirut.
He soon would.
***
TRUMP WAVES A WHITE FLAG
Trump finally intervened midday. He announced on Truth Social that Mr. Netanyahu and Hezbollah “agreed that all shooting would stop” after he spoke with both. Minutes later, he posted, “Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Trump may be trying to calm the oil markets. Prices did drop several points after his Truth Social posts, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures settling at $92.54 a barrel (a nearly 6 percent gain on the day) and Brent crude at $94.98 (a 4.24 percent rise).
Nonetheless, the optics are not good. Mr. Trump is making it appear Iran is dictating terms to the United States by getting Washington to stop its Israeli ally from effectively destroying the IRGC’s proxy.
Iran saw it as a white flag, and it pounced on it.
***
IRAN’S NEW NEGOTIATING LEVERAGE
The IRGC, seemingly, instantly understands that threatening to walk away from the talks created new negotiating leverage for Iran.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, immediately went on the offense. On X, he declared “that if the Israeli aggression against Lebanon continues, we will not only halt the path of negotiations, but we will also be in direct confrontation with the enemy.”
Trump’s statements backfired. Not only had he cut the legs off of a key U.S. ally –– and a wartime ally at that –– he signaled to the IRGC that Lebanon and Hezbollah could be used as negotiating leverage against him.
Need proof?
Earlier in the day, Iran’s threat to walk away from the MOU talks hinged around Israel not bombing Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut. By late afternoon, Tehran’s threats expanded into Iran would resume the war if Israel does not evacuate its military forces from all of Lebanon.
Some readers, especially if you are parents or grandparents, might be familiar with the classic 1985 children’s book written by Laura Numeroff and illustrated by Felicia Bond, “If you give a mouse a cookie.” If you do, the mouse will ask for more.
That is exactly what Iran is doing. The regime is asking for more and more cookies from Trump who, for now, is still unwisely all too willing to give them.
The book, allegorically speaking, teaches kids about the risks of falling down a slippery slope. Trump would do well to read it.
***
AXIOS DROPS A BOMBSHELL
Iran by late afternoon had already chalked up a series of wins. It had bombed the U.S. base in Kuwait with, at least for now, impunity. Tehran had also made Trump blink over Hezbollah by threatening to walk away from the MOU talks.
Then came another win courtesy of Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo at Axios. Their headline said it all: “”You’re f**king crazy”: Trump fumes at Netanyahu in call on Lebanon.”
It is still too early to know who leaked this and why.
One possible explanation is that Trump wanted to send a signal to Iran that he is still serious about reaching a peace deal with Tehran. Yet another explanation bandied by many pundits on X, including Mark Levin, was that it was a deliberate attempt by anti-Israel officials inside the Trump Administration to publicly embarrass the U.S. ally.
Either way, it was a huge PR win for Iran. No doubt Vahidi and his IRGC hardliners are thanking their lucky stars.
Aiding the enemy during a time of war is never justified. Nor is it a good thing. Team Trump needs to get its act together.
***
ICYMI #1
On Saturday, Jon appeared on TVP World’s Main Edition. He discussed how NATO is reacting to Russia’s provocations in Europe.
The segment is in English. You can watch the entire Main Edition news broadcast that Jon was on here.
***
ICYMI #2
In our regular weekday column for The Washington Star, we wrote about Iran’s strikes on the U.S. airbase in Kuwait.
Photo credit: Mehr News Agency. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian (center), wears his IRGC uniform while talking to a parliamentarian.
You can read it here. It is not behind a paywall.
***
We also penned a special piece today in The Washington Star arguing that while the IRGC is in control of Iran, there will be no peace in the Middle East.
Photo credit: Israeli Prime Minister’s office. Benjamin Netanyahu made Israel’s stance clear in a Monday video on X.
You can read it here. It is also not behind a paywall.
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ICYMI #3
Last Friday, Mark was on Alghad TV in Cairo, Egypt to discuss the latest developments in Iran. He cautioned that peace in the Middle East will remain elusive as long as the IRGC remains in power in Tehran.
This segment is in Arabic. You can watch it here.
***
Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Bad day for Trump when it's suggested he read a children's book. 🤔