INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.28.2026: TRUMP TAKES A TIMEOUT
May 28th, 2026
Greetings!
Early this morning, Barak Ravid, a well-sourced reporter for Axios, announced that a deal had been reached between the U.S. and Iran but that it was pending final approval by President Donald Trump.
AI image credit: Grok. A statue of Trump pondering whether to approve the Iran deal or not.
As it turned out, that wasn’t the full story.
Let’s get started understanding why that is the case in today’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report!
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WAITING ON MOJTABA KHAMENEI
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not approved it either. Nor have the U.S. and Iran fully agreed on the contours of the proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Plus, it might take several days until we know whether Khamenei signs off on the deal that appears to have been negotiated by Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister.
It is also unknown, and this is no small matter, if Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is willing to (a) agree to the MOU and (b) adhere to it during the 60-day negotiating period that would commence if Trump and Khamenei sign off on the framework.
For now, it appears not.
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THE IRGC STRIKES BACK
Iran, in clear violation of the current ceasefire, fired a ballistic missile and six drones this morning at Kuwait.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it was an “egregious ceasefire violation” and the Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry characterized the Iranian attack as “blatant aggression.” Kuwait also announced that it successfully intercepted all of Iran’s incoming fire.
According to the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC claimed that it had “targeted the source” of earlier U.S. strikes on Iran this week.
The U.S. attacks, which CENTCOM described as self-defense strikes, sank two Iranian boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Then on Thursday, the U.S. also struck an Iranian drone control station in Bandar Abbas.
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MIXED SIGNALS IN WASHINGTON, D.C.
Trump clearly didn’t want to get ahead of Khamenei. Especially if, under pressure from Vahidi and other IRGC hardliners, he ends up rejecting the MOU.
Instead, and unusually for him, he stayed mum and focused instead on circulating a draft version of the MOU to key allies, including Israel. Trump also held a call with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent filled in the void. Vance said that “We’ve made a lot of progress. We’re not there yet, but we are very close.” Bessent implied that the negotiators are “still going back and forth.”
Progress is not agreement. Nor, it would seem, does it appear that if the final details are still being debated, that the U.S. and Iran have even agreed in principle let alone finalized a document that just needs Trump and Khamenei’s signatures.
Yet, major media outlets including Reuters, CNN, and CBS News all quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying that a deal was agreed to by the American and Iranian officials. That begs the question — and to be clear here, we do not know — whether or not those unnamed officials were Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner.
If so, buyer beware. For now, the safest state of play is to focus in on Vance’s read which is that it is close, but not yet a done deal.
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ABRAHAM DISCORD?
Trump might also be delaying to further press the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia, to all join the Abraham Accords in exchange for the U.S. agreeing to enter into an MOU with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Doing so would require formally recognizing Israel, which Saudi Arabia has repeatedly declared it is not willing to do until there is an “irreversible pathway” for a Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem.
For now, Trump’s move is only causing discord. Yet after strong political pushback from his own Republican party, including Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Trump likely needs an expansion of the Abraham Accords to persuade buy-in from GOP Iran hawks on Capitol Hill.
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COMPETING MEDIATORS
Pakistan, until last week, was the principal lead mediator between the U.S. and Iran. Trump even went as far in April as saying that Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, the Chief of Pakistan’s Defense Forces, was his “favorite field marshal.”
Maybe so, but we’ve always been skeptical of Munir given that he “built ties with Iran’s IRGC and intelligence apparatus while serving as Pakistan’s military intelligence.” We are also wary of Munir given that Pakistan is anti-Israel.
That kind of bias is not what the White House needs during a negotiation process to end the war between the U.S. and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Others on Capitol Hill, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), agree.
Graham said that Pakistan’s involvement is “more than problematic.” He then, quite bluntly, also declared that “I don’t trust Pakistan.”
Now, it appears, Graham may be getting his way. Other would-be mediators, including Qatar and Oman, are angling their way into the negotiating room.
That said, we are still dubious of their motivations and end goals. Qatar and Oman are likely more interested in expanding economic ties with Iran than acting as nonpartisan and objective peace mediators.
Pakistan is not going to go quietly. Mohammad Ishaq Dar, the country’s foreign minister, is set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday.
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THE BIG PICTURE
It’s important not to lose sight of the big picture in play here. The MOU, even if it turns out to be a bad one, is not a peace deal. If it gets signed, it will only serve as a 60-day framework to hammer out a peace deal.
Our redlines are as follows:
1. Iran’s nuclear program must be dismantled, including all of its nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, Natanz and Pickaxe Mountain among others destroyed. Ditto its equipment, including centrifuges. This includes removing all of Iran’s highly enriched and low-enriched uranium.
2. Iran must not be allowed to enrich uranium. Not even low-enriched uranium needed for nuclear power plant fuel rods or medical experiments. Those needs must be met externally going forward.
3. Iran must immediately and permanently stop funding, training and supporting its so-called Axis of Resistance armed proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Until that happens, there will never be peace in Gaza or Lebanon.
4. Iran must end its offensive ballistic missile program. Especially any attempt to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. Ditto its drone program.
5. Iran must be held accountable for its human rights violations. Especially the thousands of Iranians who have been killed, tortured or jailed by the regime since it came to power in 1979.
That said, let’s be realistic. That can’t happen if the IRGC remains in power. Unless a true regime comes about, Iran will continue to make every effort to foment instability across the Middle East and beyond.
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POSTSCRIPT: NATO UNDER RUSSIAN ATTACK
As we were finishing writing this edition, reports began to flood in that a Russian drone likely intended for targets in western Ukraine crossed over into Romania, a NATO-member state, and hit an apartment building in the city of Galaţi.
We will have more on this Russian strike on Friday as we shift our focus to Ukraine.
THE WASHINGTON STAR
We were honored today to become part of the official relaunching of The Washington Star, once a newspaper of record in Washington, D.C. from 1852 to 1981. We will be writing a daily opinion column.
Here is our first column. Initially it is being published on Substack, but it will be transitioning to the web in the near future.
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ICYMI
Earlier today, in our weekly national security column at The Hill, we questioned whether or not Trump fundamentally understands that Iran defines victory differently than he does. The President sees it in conventional military terms. Iran defines it asymmetrically.
Photo credit: The Hill / AP. President Donald Trump being driven in The Beast.
You can read it here.
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ICYMI #2
Earlier today, Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt to discuss the latest developments in Iran.
You can watch an excerpt here.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
The Romanian fighter planes (2 F16+ 1 helico) did not shoot at the rusky shahed so as not to risk injuring people on the ground: pathetic.
Well we know how this is going to go because we’ve seen the same playbook every weekend for at least the past two months! tRump announces the deal with Iran has been reached late on Thursday … now all bets are being placed … we must give time for market manipulation players to cash in! You know … today I was thinking about what President Zelensky said to tRump (during a meeting between insults) about not having elections during wartime!
I’ve got $5 that says tRump will continue to manipulate markets this way until he can use the war as an excuse to cancel the election. Ok, line up on my left!