INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

06.22.2026: Belarus is ‘on the clock’

Jonathan Sweet, INTREP360 WITH SWEET & TOTH, and Mark Toth

Jun 23, 2026

June 22nd, 2026

Greetings and Happy Monday!

Hope all the Father’s out there had a great Father’s Day – you deserve it!

Photo Credit: Alexander KAZAKOV / POOL / AFP. Russian President Vladimir Putin talks to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) at the Palace of Independence in Astana on May 29, 2026.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko didn’t. On Friday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave the dictator one week “to withdraw Russian military equipment from areas near Ukraine’s border.”

According to Zelensky, signal relay stations located in two Belarusian regions on the border with Ukraine and are being used by Russian forces to help with the navigation process to attack Ukrainian civilians.

Then came the ultimatum: “If he [Lukashenko] doesn’t do it, we’ll [Ukraine] do it.”

As the CBS Fantasy Football draft narrator would say, Lukashenko is “on the clock.”

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ERODING CONFIDENCE IN RUSSIA

As we wrote last week in The Hill, “President Vladimir Putin’s Russian Federation is taking on water. Like the Titanic, it has struck an immovable object — in this case Ukraine — and it is sinking fast.”

Multiple drone strikes delivered by Kyiv against Russian cities once considered ‘safe zones’ and ‘off limits’ – Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg and the capital city of Moscow – exposed Russian air defense vulnerabilities.

Despite assurances to the Russian public by Putin after the intitial drone strike on the St. Petersburg oil terminal and the Kronstadt naval base at the onset of the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum of 2026, Ukrainian drones found their targets again two days later, then completed a ‘double tap’ of the Moscow Oil Terminal last Thursday.

Photo Credit: Ukraine Defense Ministry. A meme was born when Ukraine knocked the lid off the major Moscow oil refinery today.

The Russian air defense system that Putin acknowledged needed improvement and strengthening fittingly fired the errant shot that blew the top off an oil tanker in a spectacular fashion.

Those exposed air defense vulnerabilities did not go unnoticed by Russia’s neighbor – and ally – to the West: Belarus.

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DOUBTS IN MINSK

The once confident and assured dictator standing in the shadow of his puppet master all of sudden has doubts as to whether or not Putin could – or even would – defend Belarus from a Ukrainian drone strike.

The Kremlin’s track record certainly doesn’t espouse confidence – look no further than Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran.

And Putin has his own problems – coming to the aid of his Mussolini-like puppet in Minsk is not in the cards. He has already deployed tactical nuclear weapons and Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to Belarus at the bequest of a paranoid Lukashenko to prevent a NATO invasion.

Ukrainian long-range sanctions have reached Moscow. As Zelensky posted on X, “Moscow is feeling the reach of Ukraine’s long range capabilities.” As a result – Putin’s economy is in shambles.

The same Ukrainian drones that created havoc in St. Petersburg and Moscow are having an equally devastating effect on targets logistically sustaining Russian ground forces in the Crimean peninsula – bridges, convoys, ferries, railways and ports.

Photo Credit: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Crimea will become an Island.

Medium range drones are rapidly making Crimea isolated and untenable. The Kerch Strait Bridge is the one remaining artery to the peninsula. And wouldn’t that just be the Royal Flush of poker hands should Zelensky decide to drop the bridge on July 4th – America’s 250th Independence Day.

And in the close fight, Ukrainian devised – and enforced – ‘kill zones’ are attriting Russian forces by as many as 30,000 a month. Casualties will likely surpass 1.4 million by the end of this week. The Donbas region is becoming more and more out of reach for Putin and his Generals as Russian ground forces continue to lose terrain in Ukraine.

Zelensky has painted Lukashenko into a corner. There is no calvary.

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STRADDLING THE FENCE

Lukashenko finds himself in a precarious situation. He is struggling to find balance between his support to Putin while not further antagonizing Ukraine. The month of June has made that harder.

As we previously stated in The Washington Star, he owes his political existence to Putin, has stated his country’s military and defense cooperation with Russia remains intact, and that Minsk is prepared to “defend Moscow, if necessary” – just not in Ukraine or against NATO.

Zelensky – though probably more so Kyrylo Budanov and Robert Brovdi, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Commander – scares Lukashenko. Put more specifically – Ukraine’s use of drones in the close, medium, and deep fights.

This was evident in his recent comment: “So they’re [Ukraine] striking targets. They’re not hitting the front. The Ukrainians are striking civilians, historical and cultural monuments, oil refineries, and factories. They’re striking all over Russia, all the way to the Urals, with drones. That’s the kind of war we have now.”

Last week he acknowledged that “Belarus is very vulnerable militarily, because Belarus is exposed to the Ukrainian military like we are in the open palm of their hand. We fully understand that our key life-support facilities – industrial and logistical – would come under attack.”

He knows he can’t defend himself from Ukrainian drones, Putin isn’t likely to come to his rescue, and that majority of Belarusians do not want to participate in the war directly.

A trifecta of bad outcomes – Zelensky, Putin and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — political opposition leader and self-described Belarusian president-elect currently living in exile in Lithuania.

And he does’t want any of that – specifically, being on the receiving end of the “500 potential targets in Belarus” that Brovdi warned he would strike should Lukashenko take “actions that could further draw Minsk into the war.”

Ukraine doesn’t mince words – nor do they ask permission anymore. Lukashenko would later walk back previous remarks he made about Zelensky that may have been offensive, saying “Perhaps I overdid it here and there.”

Begging forgiveness from Putin may be the better course of action – but open windows in Moscow can be hazardous to one’s health.

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WE DO NOT WANT TO FIGHT WITH THEM

Two weeks ago Lukashenko said “I want the Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians to hear me. We do not want to fight with them.” He then ruled out sending troops to fight in Ukraine, saying his soldiers would not become “cannon fodder for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war.”

Zelensky is holding him to that – and giving him an opportunity to live up to his words. “When Mr. Lukashenko says he does not want to be drawn into the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people.”

That wasn’t the tune Lukashenko was singing on February 5th, 2022 when he told Kremlin propagandist Volodymyr Solovyev, “Against our united efforts, Ukraine has no chance. In case of a war, it will last 3-4 days. Ukraine has no one to fight us. The Ukrainians would be crazy if they collided with Russia.”

Six months later he boasted, “We are the only country that supports the Russians in this struggle.”

Lukashenko can’t undo what he has already done – and that’s support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from day one. But he can stop supporting Putin’s war effort.

That means removing the signaling equipment used by the Kremlin to target Ukraine. “What’s the point of saying he [Lukashenko] doesn’t want to be in the war? Let him remove this equipment, let him switch it off … If he doesn’t do it, ⁠we’ll do it.”

Zelenskyy also called out Belarus’s oil refining assets, alleging the country had become a major supplier to Russia and that Lukashenko could put a stop to it. “Today he is the main supplier, or one of the main suppliers, for the Russian Army. Can this be stopped? I’m sure it’s within his power. And he’s the one controlling it.”

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OUR TAKE

Zelensky is calling out Lukashenko – who reminds us of the chihuahua safely behind a glass door [Russia] barking at an imposing bull dog [Ukraine] on the other side. Remove the barrier – the glass door – and suddenly the confrontation becomes nonconfrontational.

Russia is decisively enaged on their homefront, the Donbas, and Crimea. Putin simply doesn’t have the resources to divert to Belarus. Lukashenko knows it, and so does Zelensky, which makes life uncomfortable for the Belarusian dictator.

The ultimatum is both bold and audacious – designed to put Lukashenko on his heels. Ukraine has the resources, capability and willingness to execute the task – which always makes the threat credible.

But it also sends a message to Putin. Zelensky will not tolerate a demonstration along his northern border by the Russian proxy – nor the use of relay stations in Belarus by Russia to direct missiles and drones to their targets in Ukraine.

Zelensky’s intent is to deny further Belarusian support to Moscow – and he is prepared go kinetic if necessary.

To isolate Belarus from Russia.

No comment from Belarus yet – June 26th is just four days from now.

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ICYMI. No interviews this weekend as we both took a knee to enjoy a Father’s Day weekend with our families. You can catch our latest National Security columns in today’s The Washington Star where we discuss the implications of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation and Vice President J.D. Vance comments on the status of negotiations with Iran in Obbürgen, Switzerland.

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