INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

03.20.2026

Mar 21, 2026

March 20^th, 2026

Greetings! It’s late Friday afternoon—the 21^st Day of the war in Iran—and President Donald Trump has decided to play Blackjack with NATO.

AI-generated credit: Grok. Imaginary scene depicting German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (far left), British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (left), President Donald Trump (center) & French President Emmanuel Macron playing Blackjack.

He’s implying—or at least he is trying to act as such—in a new Truth Social Post, that he’s hit a perfect 21 in the Persian Gulf & is getting ready to cash out leaving NATO to deal with ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Or is he?

Timing in life is everything. Trump made his post at 5:13 PM EDT—or 1 hour, 13 minutes after the close of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City—stating that he is “[considering] winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran.”

Screenshot: Trump Truth Social post, timestamped March 20^th, 2026, at 4:13 PM CDT (5:13 PM EDT).

Plus—especially for a Friday night—the White House communication team really wanted this story out there. We received a press release alert from them containing the text of Trump’s Truth Social post. That meant the White House wasn’t trying to bury this story. Instead, they clearly wanted to amplify it.

The devil—as always—is in the details. Note where Trump says, “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it.”

Clearly, he is threatening NATO by implying he will abandon their member state interests in the Persian Gulf. Trump is angry at NATO’s response to his demands for help and as Jon said while we discussed this post, now the President is lashing out at them.

This isn’t new but it is reaching a boiling point. Let’s get started examining how we got here & what is at stake for NATO.

***

As we wrote in our Tuesday edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, neither NATO nor European Union (EU) member states displayed much enthusiasm to support the President’s call for warships to escort oil tankers through the strait. At least not while the U.S. and Israel are in a shooting war with Iran.

Time reported, that following an EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels, many nations expressed a reluctance to get involved in the Middle East Conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron made that clear when he said, “We are convinced that once the situation has calmed down—and I deliberately ⁠use this term broadly—once the situation has calmed down, that is to say, once the main bombing ⁠has ceased, we are ready, along with other nations, to assume responsibility for the escort system.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer echoed that sentiment when he said the United Kingdom would “not be drawn into the wider war,” but that they were working to “bring together a viable plan” to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. As was their offer in January to deploy European soldiers to Ukraine as peacekeepers ‘in the event a peace deal’ is reached as a security guarantee—backed by the U.S.—it is based on the condition that shooting has stopped.

Team Trump was incensed. Europe—again in his mind—was wanting to use American blood to protect European treasure. This prompted Trump to label NATO a “paper tiger” & “cowards,” posting on Truth Social:

“They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them. [They] complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!”

This afternoon, Trump fired a warning shot to NATO as to just exactly how far he might go about ‘remembering’ what he perceives to be a European slight. Fair or not, Europe should take him seriously.

NATO needs all of its members to be on the same page. If not, then Russian President Vladimir Putin is the only winner. National security—as ever—must trump egos & hurt feelings. Ukraine—likewise—Cannot afford this kind of divide now.

***

Earlier, on Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said alliance members were discussing the “best way” to open the Strait of Hormuz. Rutte said he was in touch with many leaders, and that they agree the strait has to open up again, saying “what I know is that allies are working together, discussing how to do that, what is the best way to do it. They are working on that collectively, to find a way forward.”

***

As Europe weighs its options supporting the Trump Administration’s request for warships to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon is moving forward with its own plans for securing the strategic waterway.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine announced today the deployment of U.S. Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft & U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopters to the region to reopen the Strait.

Both platforms have one weapon system on board that will strike fear in Islamic Republic of Iran soldiers manning ballistic missile/drone launch sites, coastal defense batteries, speed boats or mine laying vessels along the coast: the 30mm cannon. It has a very distinctive sound—and delivers devastating effects.

The A-10—affectionately known as the Warthog—is built around the 30 mm GAU-8/A Gatling gun. It has a combat load of 1,174 rounds and can fire at a sustained rate of 65 rounds per second. In addition, the airframe can support a combat load of “up to 16,000 pounds of mixed ordnance on eight under-wing and three under-fuselage pylon stations, including 500 pound Mk-82 and 2,000 pound Mk-84 series low/high drag bombs, incendiary cluster bombs, combined effects munitions, mine dispensing munitions, AGM-65 Maverick missiles, laser-/GPS-guided bombs, unguided and laser-guided 2.75-inch rockets.”

Photo credit: United States Air Force. A-10C Thunderbolt II.

The AH-64’s main armament is the 30 mm M230 Chain Gun. It has a combat load of 1,200 rounds and can deliver 625 rounds per minute. In addition, the helicopter packs 16 x AGM-114 Hellfire missiles & 76 x 2.75‑inch rockets.

***

In the absence of naval escorts through the strait––these Warthogs & Apache helicopters will likely loiter off the Iranian coastline, waiting for persistent surveillance assets to locate high-payoff targets for them to destroy. Potential targets include naval vessels, mines, attack drones, IRGC fast attack boats, midget submarines, sea drones––surface & subsurface––shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles fired from concealed coastal launch sites, and fishing boats laden with explosives.

In targeting terms, it’s sensor to the shooter in real time. Significantly, there are no reports of 30 mm ammunition shortages.

These assets also have a role to provide close air support to forces on the ground. Should CENTCOM elect to use the 5,000 Marines from the USS Tripoli amphibious ready group & another 4,500 Marines from the USS Boxer amphibious ready group to launch raids & seize key terrain along the Iranian coast––they will have their backs.

Plus—the movement of these assets is telling. The Pentagon keeps building combat power, not lessening it. That’s why—and of course, we could be wrong—we believe Trump’s Truth Social post earlier today was more about messaging than intent.

***

It is becoming increasingly clear—at least in the short term—that opening the Strait of Hormuz, and keeping it open, is now a strategic objective that will require a U.S.-led kinetic military solution.

As Gen. Colin Powell prescribed – bring overwhelming force. “If in the end war becomes necessary … you must do it right. You’ve got to be decisive. You’ve got to go in massively. You’ve got to be wise and fight in a way that keeps casualties to a minimum. And you’ve got to go in to win.”

***

Cooler heads in Washington & NATO need to prevail. Now is not a time for pettiness—no matter how much deserved.

The President needs to let Adm. Brad Cooper & the team at U.S. Central Command complete the task—and NATO leaders need to commit to doing their full share during combat operations & not waiting for the peace.

***

Meanwhile, U.S. & Israeli forces continue striking Iranian internal security targets throughout Tehran.

Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.

Meanwhile, as we close this edition out, there are unconfirmed reports that Ahmad-Reza Radan—the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Chief of Police—has been killed. If so, that’s a good thing. Ten days ago, he threatened to kill any Iranians taking to the street to protest against the regime. Loosely translated, he said the Basij—Iran’s militia—has their fingers on the trigger & are ready to kill.