INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
02.25.2026
February 25th, 2026
Greetings!
It has been a tough week for the Kremlin. Yesterday, February 24th, marked the fourth anniversary—48 months—of what can only be described as a failed Russian ‘special military operation.’
The proof is in the pudding, as the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports in their daily battle damage assessment (BDA) update:
Chart credit: Defense of Ukraine. Russian casualties as of February 25th, 2026.
There is a lot of activity taking place around this historic date, so let’s get started covering it & putting it into context in this special edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report.
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First & foremost—a shout-out to all the Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm veterans out there. Feb. 24th marked the 35th anniversary of the ground campaign. After thirty-eight days of air attacks, U.S. & allied ground forces were able to decisively defeat the Iraqi army & liberate Kuwait in 100 hours.
Photo credit: ABC News. Desert Storm Victory Parade, Washington, DC.
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Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov put on another fine display of Ukraine Derangement Syndrome (UDS), telling his audience that a “Russia[n] loss in Ukraine would lead to Russia destroying the world: “This is a holy war, and we must win. If we don’t, there will be no world, because why do we need a world without Russia in it?”
Photo credit: News Hub. Russian talk show host Vladimir Solovyov.
We need a world without Russian President Vladimir Putin—and quite frankly—without the likes of Solovyov & his supporters. Ukraine didn’t ask for this war, but they are prepared to fight it for as long as it takes.
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Pink Flamingos—especially as yard decorations—usually have a calming effect but as we described in our INTREP360 Intelligence Report yesterday, their kinetic introduction into Ukraine’s quiver of military options may have shifted momentum back toward Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters today that all of the Flamingo missiles launched at the Votkinsk plant—a Russian missile manufacturing facility located in the Udmurt Republic—on February 21st reached their target, calling the strike a success. “We carried out precise strikes with ‘Flamingo’ missiles at a range of 1,400 kilometers. I believe this is truly a success for our industry.”
Innovation while in contact. Zelensky isn’t waiting for a George S. Patton general to bail him out.
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In the category of ‘you can’t make this stuff up,’ the U.S. abstained on a resolution yesterday in the United Nations to reaffirm support for Ukraine on the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion. The resolution also called for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” & a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace.”
U.S. Deputy Ambassador Tammy Bruce said the U.S. welcomed the UN’s appeal for a ceasefire but argued the resolution contained “language that is likely to distract” from negotiations.
Really?
Holding Russia fully accountable for war crimes, crimes against humanity, restitution for damages resulting from bombing Ukraine’s energy sector, critical infrastructure, residential neighborhoods, etc., is a distraction?
Translation. Team Trump doesn’t want to see Moscow walk away from $14 trillion in joint projects with the U.S. that were offered up by Kirill Dmitriev on February 18th—not that the U.S. would ever see them in the long run. They are fool’s gold.
Even former U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine & Russia, retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, isn’t buying it. Commenting on X, he wrote “A UN vote on a lasting peace in Ukraine and we abstained. Go figure. The Russian Federation was against the proclamation. Is not four years of war enough? Is not missing children, shelling of cities and the killing of innocents enough? It is not a business deal––it is war.”
Spoiler alert Gen. Kellog. As long as Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner remain the lead negotiators, it is—outrageously—a business deal.
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Speaking of business deals, and in the same category, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Olga Stefanishyna told reporters on Tuesday that the Trump administration warned the Ukrainian government that its strikes on a Russian Black Sea oil facility last year impacted U.S. investments in Kazakhstan.
According to Stefanishyna, the State Department said in a formal démarche that Ukraine should “refrain from attacking American interests.” CNN reports that Chevron is a major shareholder in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries oil from Kazakh oil fields to the Black Sea for export.
Let’s be frank. Revenues from the sale of that oil would go to finance Russia’s war against Ukraine. Is it any different than Ukraine striking the Kaleykino oil pumping facility in Smolensk—a critical node of the Druzhba pipeline that delivers oil to Hungary and Slovakia?
The target is in Russia. Russia uses revenues from those facilities to finance their war against Ukraine. Why should they be protected? After all, hasn’t the U.S. sanctioned Russian oil & persuaded India to not purchase Russian oil? The U.S. has even targeted Russia’s shadow fleet including seizing the Russian-flagged Bela 1.
Then what about the U.S.-owned businesses in Ukraine being targeted by Russia? Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Philip Morris International top the list. In August 2025, two Russian cruise missiles struck the Flex electronics factory in Zakarpattia.
Then on February 22nd, a Russian missile struck the production facilities of the American company Mondelēz International in Trostianets.
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Then, for the trifecta of the you can’t make this stuff up, during an argument with Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mariana Betsa, at the UN Security Council meeting, Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya said, “Technically, I’m Ukrainian. And I have such a strange last name. Slavs know that it is difficult to find it even in Ukraine. She is from the Zaporozhian Cossacks. My father is a big-cheeked Ukrainian, and my mother is also from the Cossacks.”
So basically, Nebenzya acknowledged he is a traitor to his people. He sits on the UN Security Council, pushes a Russian agenda, all the while the Kremlin slaughters & endangers his kin & fellow Ukrainians.
You sleep in the bed you make, and Nebenzya has made his bed. That said, when his usefulness to the Kremlin is done, he should be wary of open windows & cups of tea.
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Zelensky posted on X today that the next round of trilateral meetings is slated for early March in Florida. He also stated that the Ukrainian negotiation team—led by Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary—will meet with Steve Witkoff & Jared Kushner in Geneva tomorrow.
Photo credit: Joe Raedle. President Volodymyr Zelensky, left. President Donald Trump, right.
ABC News reports that tomorrow’s meeting will address details of a “possible postwar recovery plan for Ukraine and discuss preparations for an upcoming trilateral meeting with Moscow officials.” Zelensky added that he tasked “Umerov with discussing a possible prisoner exchange.”
What’s missing?
The most contentious of the outstanding issues: control of the Donbas, especially its strategic defensive belts guarding Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa & Kyiv.
Can a deal be made?
Probably not.
Not given Russia’s ongoing maximalist demands. Absent Putin yielding, both sides are prepared to fight this out for the foreseeable future, & Europe is prepared to support Ukraine through 2027.
Zelensky’s position has become ‘not another inch.’ He recently told Japanese Kyodo News that, “Standing where we stand is a great compromise. They [Russia] captured almost 20% of our territory. And we are ready to talk about peace now on the basis of the principle of “we stand where we stand.” It’s a big compromise.”
He emphasized that Ukraine is ready for “real compromises,” but not for “compromises at the cost of our independence and sovereignty.”
Kyrylo Budanov, the former-Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, and now Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine says, “It is no secret that negotiations aren’t going smoothly, but we are clearly moving forward and approaching a point when all parties will need to make final decisions: continue this war or move toward peace. I hope that justice will ultimately prevail.”
He went on to stress that “such wars do not end on their own. They either conclude with a just resolution or return in an even larger and more dangerous form. Therefore, peace negotiations must not simply halt the war—they must ensure that Russian aggression cannot happen again.”
That will require security guarantees. Zelensky wants a legally binding treaty; Russia says no to European peacekeepers in Ukraine. In addition to security, Budanov wants accountability for Russian aggression and justice.
One thing is clear. This is bigger than just Russia and Ukraine, and a business deal between Russia and the U.S. is not going to resolve it.
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PROGRAMMING ALERT!
Tomorrow, at 7 AM ET, in our weekly Thursday national security column at The Hill in Washington, D.C., we call out Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico for who they are: Putin’s NATO pawns.
You can read it here when it goes live.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.