INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.24.2026
March 24th, 2026
Greetings!
It’s Day 25 of the war in Iran & this is not—at least in the classical Franklin Roosevelt & Winston Churchill sense—what ‘unconditional surrender’ should look like. Remember—on March 6th—President Donald Trump insisted that Iran’s “unconditional surrender” was nonnegotiable if Tehran wants to end the war.
Photo credit: Jim Watson / AFP. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 24th, 2026.
Today—however—Trump proposed a 30-day ceasefire to allow the U.S. & Iran to negotiate a peace agreement. That’s not quite how unconditional surrender works—at least not during World War II. He also postponed for 5 days his March 22nd threat to begin attacking Iranian power plants starting with the biggest.
Trump’s terms for a peace deal with Iran are good enough. They include—as reported by The Times of Israel—dismantling its nuclear weapons program including dismantling the Fordow, Isfahan & Natanz nuclear facilities, ending uranium enrichment, turning over its 450 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium (HEU) & allowing unfettered International Atomic Energy (IAEA) access.
They also call for Iran to end its funding & support of its Axis of Resistance proxies, severely limiting the range & quantity of its missiles, and ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to global shipping traffic in strict accordance with international maritime law. Essentially—all together—Trump’s terms are maximalist.
***
Iran, however, is hardly viewing this as an exercise in unconditional surrender. Its terms—purportedly—are equally maximalist. Tehran is demanding that the U.S. close all of its military bases in the Middle East, pay Iran war reparations, allow Iran to collect tolls on Strait of Hormuz shipping, guarantee Israel won’t attack Lebanon, lift all economic sanctions & allow Iran to keep its missile program in its entirety.
Arguably—at least publicly—the Islamic Republic of Iran is demanding that Team Trump surrender unconditionally.
In that vein, it is difficult to see that Iran is prepared to cut a peace deal. The regime—under immense combined U.S. & Israeli military pressure—might welcome a temporary ceasefire to lick its wounds & prepare for another round, but that would likely be the extent of it.
Giving Iran that lifeline seems—at least to us—unwise from a military standpoint. As we noted yesterday, Adm. Brad Cooper, the Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), has a plan & a set target list to ensure Iran’s ability to threaten the Middle East & develop nuclear weapons is set back for years, if not a decade plus.
***
Certainly, today’s shenanigans in the Oval Office might just be Kabuki theater. A play for time by the Trump administration to emplace the 9,500 Marines headed to the region aboard the USS Tripoli & USS Boxer. Ditto Maj. Gen. Brandon Tegtmeier, the Commander of the 82nd Airborne Division & 2,000 of his paratroopers who were ordered this evening to deploy to the Middle East for potential land operations.
Photo credit: U.S. Army. 82nd Airborne Paratroopers in an undated photograph.
Iran—according to reporting this evening by Barak Ravid & Marc Caputo for Axios—is also likely viewing Trump’s Oval Office ceasefire offer as Kabuki theater. Per Ravid & Caputo, “Iranian officials have told the mediators—Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey—that U.S. military movements and Trump’s decision to deploy major troop reinforcements have increased their suspicion that his proposal for peace talks is just a ruse.”
Nonetheless, the White House is trying—and certainly it could be misdirection so proceed with caution—to convey that Trump is sincere. Ravid & Caputo quoted an unnamed Trump adviser as saying, “Trump has a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist, waiting to punch you in the f***ing face.’
Likewise, Trump’s offer to involve Vice President JD Vance is also—according to Ravid & Caputo—intended to show the Iranians that Trump is serious about negotiating a comprehensive peace deal with Iran.
For now, color is skeptical. Both the U.S. & Iran—at least for now—are positioning themselves as though they hold the winning hand.
***
Ceasefire or not, it is essential to keep focusing on Iran’s actions. Today—in the Oval Office—Trump claimed that Iran “gave us a present and the present arrived today, and it was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money.” When he was pressed, Trump acknowledged it was related to oil & the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Turns out, that “present” comes with a price tag attached. As The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted this evening, “Iran is reportedly requiring some vessels to pay a fee to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime intelligence company Lloyd’s List reported on March 23rd that over 20 vessels have taken a “Tehran-approved route” to transit the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian territorial waters since the war began. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels, including a Chinese state-owned feeder tanker, have paid Iran a fee in exchange for safe passage through the strait.”
Used with ISW permission. Credit: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
We get it. One, it helped ease oil prices. Two, Trump’s other point was that whoever he is talking to—and its purportedly with Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, although he denies it—proved they can pull triggers in Tehran & therefore is a credible would-be negotiating partner.
That said, color us skeptical again. Allowing passage of oil tankers—and only non-hostile ones at that—was a cheap price to pay especially since Iran is collecting fees. It’s the ultimate pay-for-play. Consequently, we wouldn’t—at least now—put much weight on it in terms of it meaning Iran is serious about negotiating.
It was a win-win for Tehran. Trump held off from bombing Iranian power stations for five days & they are getting paid for allowing oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz. In that vein, it really wasn’t—as Trump claimed—a nice thing. Quite the opposite, it was rather self-serving for the Iranian regime.
Nonetheless—from a military standpoint—Iran might be making a mistake here. Note in the above ISW map the normal flow of peacetime traffic versus Iran forcing oil tankers to sail between the islands of Larak & Hormuz.
Could these two islands potentially be targets for the Marines or 82nd Airborne paratroopers head to the Middle East?
Time will tell.
***
Pay attention as well to who Iran just appointed to replace the now deceased Ali Larijani as the new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr—described by Iran International as a “foundational figure” of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—is as hardline as hardliners come in Iran.
That tells us—at least for now—that the IRGC is still firmly in control in Iran. Team Trump may be speaking to Ghalibaf but at the end of the day he is a political puppet entirely controlled by the IRGC—no matter how ambitious Ghalibaf might be personally—and by all accounts he is a very ambitious man.
Photo credit: Iran International. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the new Secretary of Supreme National Security Council in an undated photograph.
We concur with Iran International’s reporting. Zolghadr’s appointment represents an alarming trend: “the consolidation of power by hardline military figures.” The Axis of Resistance is the crown jewel of the IRGC. They are not likely to give it up in any negotiations with Trump or Vance. Nor are they likely to agree to end Iran’s nuclear & ballistic missile programs.
***
Bear in mind too that the IRGC fully understands that they are in an existential fight. Not just for the Survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but for their own survival. If they fail—or if they are perceived to be weak by making concessions of Iran’s uranium enrichment or ballistic missiles—it very well could lead to street uprisings.
Team Trump—if they are not—need to be aware of this. Understanding this facet is crucial in understanding why peace negotiations are not likely to work as long as the IRGC remains in power in Iran.
***
Chaos—yet again—reigned supreme today in Washington, D.C. Nonetheless—like we urged here yesterday—keep looking past it. This war—despite Trump’s claims today in the Oval Office is not yet won. However, the U.S. & Israel are in the process of winning it.
That said—for now—Iran still gets a vote. Thus, far they are continuing to fight. Nonetheless—as Cooper pointed out—that fight is getting tougher every day for Tehran to sustain. Once the Marines & 82nd Airborne are on station, it is likely to get a lot tougher.
Stay tuned & while you do it, tune out the chaos!
***
Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.