INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.07.2026
May 7th, 2026
Greetings!
Mark — aside from editing tonight’s edition of the INTREP360 Intelligence Report — is off as we wanted to give you a warfighter’s perspective on Iran from Jon’s point of view & experience as a former intel officer who deployed multiple times to the region, including as part of Desert Storm.
Let’s let Jon get started!
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We’re closing in on another weekend — only this one includes Mother’s Day! It’s not too late to order those flowers, get a card and more for those special women in our lives.
Well, President Donald Trump has done it again. He has given the Islamic Republic of Iran another week to “see whether or not the [Pakistani brokered] Agreement can be finalized and signed.”
According to Trump, “we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time.”
But just in case they don’t agree — he renewed his threat to start bombing again, “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”
His erratic-like approach to Iran is not having the desired effect — reaching a deal wherein Iran gives up its enriched uranium program and pursuit of a nuclear weapon in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
This has become a broken record for the White House. Iran has cracked Trump’s “Art of the Deal” code with their ‘fog of leadership’ tactic.
For those of us who may have spent a few weeks in military basic training — it’s starting to sound like a familiar cadence: “Here we go again. Same old stuff again. Marching down the avenue. [One more week] and we’ll be through. I’ll be glad and so will you.”
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THE ABILENE PARADOX
Photo Credit: https://gohighbrow.com/abilene-paradox/. Abilene Paradox.
Even worse, as we wrote yesterday in The Hill, it feels as though we may have just boarded the bus to Abilene. Yes, another worn-out military saying but appropriate for the situation.
(Editor’s note: It was the family 1958 Buick, not a bus; alas, over time, it has morphed into a ‘bus to Abilene.’)
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OVERCOMING THE TACO NARRATIVE
The sooner the President tells whoever is making the decisions within the Islamic Republic of Iran “this is my final offer” – the better. Adding another week to a two-week ceasefire he declared on April 7th, that he extended indefinitely on April 21st, isn’t the solution. It only fuels the “Trump Always Chickens Out” – TACO – narrative.
It’s time for the White House to make the suspense a red-line, not a negotiation point.
What happened to “unconditional surrender?” We should be dictating terms to Ahmad Vahidi not collecting, much less considering, counter proposals. Iranian officials should be traveling to Washington, D.C. — not the other way around.
As Larry Kudlow stated on Fox Business, “Unconditional deadlines should be the next Iranian step. President Trump should be dictating unconditional surrender terms to whatever Iranian government exists.”
Keeping U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner on a short leash so they can launch to Islamabad whenever Iran is ready to discuss terms seemingly puts Tehran in the driver’s seat — and can only be perceived as weakness.
To borrow yet another military saying, “who’s running this s**t show?”
*** THE END STATE
As we have stated on many occasions, ultimately the success or failure of Trump’s war with Iran — Operation Epic Fury — will likely be based upon its 2nd and 3rd order effects: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assuming control over the country and the resumption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Not whether or not the military objectives assigned to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) were achieved — they were; rather, stability in the Middle East and the price of oil.
Right now the President is batting 0 for 2, and has ceded his leverage to Iran in the hope of making some sort of deal.
He has prioritized — or parlayed— Iran’s intent to develop a nuclear weapon with lifting the blockade to get some sort of negotiated outcome. That may result in a short term solution, but it will likely leave the region in a state of persistent conflict for decades to come.
America First won’t solve this problem. Israel and the Gulf nations comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have their own national security interests to tend to.
If an agreement is reached on enriched uranium and the reopening of the Strait, what hasn’t been resolved would still loom large: what is the enforcement mechanism, who runs the country, who controls passage through the Strait, what about Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs, its support to proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Shi’a militias — and the brutal suppression by the IRGC against their own civilians by the Basij paramilitary?
Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they were setting conditions for the Iranian people to ‘take back their country.’ What about them?
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WANT IT BAD, GET IT BAD
And this is bad.
Fox News reported this afternoon that, according to Axios Global Affairs Correspondent Barak Ravid, the U.S. and Iran are at the closest point to an agreement since the war began. The framework includes:
“The U.S. and Iranian naval blockade will be gradually lifted during the detailed negotiation period.
The U.S. will commit, in the memorandum of understanding, to gradually lift sanctions and release tens of billions of dollars from frozen assets.
Negotiations are still underway on the duration of the uranium enrichment freeze. Three sources said the freeze would last at least 12 years, and one source estimated the final outcome would be 15 years. In addition, the U.S. wants to include in the agreement a clause stating that any Iranian violation regarding uranium enrichment will extend the freeze period.
Two sources claimed that Iran would agree to transfer the highly enriched uranium it possesses out of the country.
The U.S. expects to receive Iran’s response within 48 hours regarding several key points in the draft framework agreement.”
This agreement fails to resolve any of the looming strategic & regional issues I mentioned above.
As Hugh Hewitt stated: “The “leaders” left standing in Iran (the ones with the guns at least) are fanatical killers who cannot be trusted. The blockade should stay in place until full commercial traffic to every country not named Iran resumes through the Gulf. The repudiation of enrichment has to be complete and the remains of the highly enriched uranium, now buried under rubble at various sites after U.S. precision strikes, has to be dug up and turned over to us. The Iranian missile and drone programs must have caps on the number of missiles and their range, and those programs must be subject to a strict verification regime. Finally, the regime must turn on the internet for its people and turn off the money spigot for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.”
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TRUMP’S ‘LOVE TAP’
Late this afternoon CENTCOM responded to unprovoked Iranian attacks with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz. According to the press release, “Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason [as they] transited the international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck. CENTCOM eliminated [the] inbound threats and targeted [the] Iranian military facilities responsible for the attacks, including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes.”
Photo Credit: CENTCOM Press Release | 7 May 2026. CENTCOM Protects U.S. Warships Transiting Strait of Hormuz
The President said the ceasefire was still in effect, and described the attack on U.S. Navy ships transiting the Strait as a ‘Love Tap.’ However, it seemed more like an act of war to me.
The IRGC forces eliminated by the U.S. Navy probably wouldn’t describe it as a love tap — neither would the Sailors on board the ships under attack.
Brushing off this brazen attack sends the wrong message to the IRGC and emboldens them even more. What happened to those “short and powerful” attacks we were told about back on April 29th?
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UN RESOLUTION 2187
This attack happened shortly after a joint United Nations press conference in which the Ambassadors from Bahrain, the U.S., the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announced “a draft Security Council resolution calling on Iran to halt attacks on commercial shipping, end illegal tolling and remove sea mines from the Strait of Hormuz.”
The draft builds on Resolution 2817 and seeks to ensure safe and unimpeded navigation through one of the world’s most strategic maritime corridors.
The draft would act under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, making its provisions binding. The ambassadors urged all UN member states to co-sponsor the resolution.
Mike Waltz described Iran’s actions as “textbook violations of international law,” warning that the establishment of a so-called “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” risks normalizing unlawful interference in global shipping.
The IRGC was clearly trying to send a message to the White House. They sent a similar message on Monday in response to the Project Freedom – when Iranian armed forces fired drones and missiles at U.S. military assets in the region and launched cruise missiles and drones at the UAE.
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VAHIDI GETS A VOTE
Vahidi isn’t going to make this easy for Trump. The time for negotiations has long since passed. The President needs to quit playing IRGC games and order ADM Brad Cooper to “secure the strait.”
(Editor’s note: Late tonight, it appears Vahidi exercised his vote. The UAE — as we publish this — is reporting that the country again is under Iranian ballistic missile & drone attacks. These are not, as Mark noted on X, going to be perceived by Abu Dhabi as ‘love taps.’)
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ICYMI
Earlier today, Mark was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt to discuss the latest on the backchannel peace talks between Washington & Tehran. While it is clear that Egypt supports the Gulf States — Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi traveled to the UAE today as a sign of support for the Gulf States — Trump’s actions, or lack thereof — are being perceived as U.S. weakness.
While acknowledging that Trump’s erratic approach to negotiating with Iran doesn’t help, Mark pushed back saying don’t underestimate Washington’s resolve here or willingness to use additional military force.
Minutes after Mark got off air, it was confirmed that it was the U.S. who had struck Qeshm Island & Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz .
You can watch the entire episode here. Mark’s segment is toward the end.
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Thank you for reading. Hopefully we’ll have something more positive to talk about tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.