INTREP360 Intelligence Report
04.29.2026
Greetings and welcome to mid-week, or hump day as its affectately refered by the collective workforce.
Tomorrow marks the last day in April – then onward to May and the Kentucky Derby, Cinco de Mayo, Mother’s Day and … Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square.
Only this year sans tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles, and more.
On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the parade would “feature a column of troops from military academies and the armed forces marching on foot.”
As CNN stated: “No military hardware will roll past Lenin’s tomb this year.”
Why? According to the Kremlin, its “due to the current operational situation.”
Translation – Moscow is taking a beating in Ukraine.
This is what losing – Russian style – looks like in 2026 courtesy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky & the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The rolling battle damage assessment produced by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides the tale of the tape:
***
As we explained last Friday in the INTREP360 Intelligence Report, then again yesterday in the Kyiv Post – Russia is Bleeding.
This could be the ‘Summer of Ukraine.’
Kyiv has implemented a ‘kill zone’ strategy that has shifted momentum back in their direction. They are using their own manufactured weapons (Fire Point1/2/5 & 7/9) – free from western restrictions – to target Russian troops as well as Moscow’s principal source of revenue to fund Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ‘special military operation:’ oil.
Whenever and wherever they choose – there is no sanctuary and no quarter provided. And Russian air defenses provide little protection for their targets in the occupied territories, Crimea, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea or even Moscow.
Bottom line: Russia is losing. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov basically acknowledged that when he told reporters that “Russia no longer considers peace talks with Ukraine a priority.”
You don’t negotiate from a position of weakness.
***
So what is the priority for Moscow now?
Let’s begin with Maslow’s hierarchy of needs – beginning with safety.
Internal security for Grandpa in his Bunker? As Putin’s mistake in Ukraine festers – so to does discontent within the general population. Part of the solution is to shut down the internet, which Putin says is “operational work to prevent terrorist attacks,” though more likely intent on preventing organization amongst opposition groups and the dissemination of information that runs counter to the State’s message.
A more likely reason is fear of a coup, as The U.S. Sun reported last week.
It’s not Venezuela or former President Nicolás Maduro – that’s no longer an issue.
Africa? Not only are Russian forces getting beaten in Ukraine – but in Mali as well by by separatist fighters and Islamist militants. Last weekend Russian forces confirmed they pulled out of the northern city of Kidal.
They had the same problem in Syria in January 2025 and January 2026.
Then there is Moldova – and the Transnistria region. As Global Feed Live documented in an excellent video, Chișinău declared six senior Russian officers persona non grata on April 22d and expelled them from the country. Prior to this event, they formally broke away from the Commonwealth of Independent States, imposed an economic blockade on Transnistria, and initiatied a ‘convergence’ with Romania – which could result in unification with Romania and … NATO Article V protection.
As expected, Lavrov said “unification would destroy the Moldovan state,” calling it a “provocation and NATO expansion.”
How about Cuba?
In an interview with Fox News Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst yesterday concerning the Cuba’s future, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Cuba:
A “failed state,” and that “it can get better, but in order for it to get better they do need very substantial and serious economic reforms. Those serious economic reforms are impossible with these people in charge. It can’t happen. And these people in charge aren’t just economically incompetent. They have rolled out the welcome mat to adversaries of the U.S. to operate within Cuban territory against our national interest with impunity. We are not going to have a foreign military or intelligence or security apparatus operating with impunity 90 miles off the shores of the U.S. That’s not going to happen under President Trump.”
The United Kingdom? They’ve had enough of Russian submarines meddling in its territorial waters. Earlier this month, John Healey, the U.K.’s defense secretary accused Moscow of conducting a “covert operating over cables and pipelines in waters north of Scotland.
While there wasn’t any evidence of damage to critical infrastructure, Healey told Russian President Vladimir Putin that “We see you. We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated.”
However, seeing Russia is not enough. Putin – given his losses in Ukraine & the accumulating economic damage that Kyiv is inflicting on his oil & energy infrastructure – is desperately seeking to expand the battlefield.
Westminster should do what Helsinki & Stockholm have done in the past. Depth-charge any known submarines operating in its territorial waters.
Or is it Iran?
***
Putin and Trump had a 90 minute phone converstion this afternoon. A call that Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said was held at ‘Moscow’s initiative.’
Of course it was – it came just days after Trump reitereated his claim that Zelensky started the war with Russia: “You don’t start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.”
Once again, Putin played to Trump’s ego – likely with the intent to get the President re-energized on his peace plan for Ukraine.
Ushakov said the two “paid particular attention to the situation regarding Iran and in the Persian Gulf. Vladimir Putin considers Donald Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran to be the right one, as this should give negotiations a chance and, overall, help to stabilize the situation.”
He added that Putin also “highlighted the inevitable and extremely damaging consequences not only for Iran and its neighbors, but also for the entire international community, should the U.S. and Israel resort to military action once again,” adding that Russia was “firmly committed to providing every possible assistance to diplomatic efforts” on the Middle East war, and said the call was held at Moscow’s initiative.
Then came the ‘ask,’ as the two leaders discussed the war in Ukraine. According to Ushakov, at Trump’s request, “Putin described the current situation along the line of contact, where our troops are holding the strategic initiative and pushing back the enemy’s positions.”
Supposedly both Putin and Trump “expressed similar assessments of the behavior of the Kyiv regime led by [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky, which, incited and with the support of the Europeans, is pursuing a policy of prolonging the conflict.”
Putin told Trump he was ready “to declare a ceasefire for the duration of Victory Day celebrations. Trump actively supported this initiative, noting that the holiday marks our shared victory.”
***
What is evident though about the ceasefire request is that Putin can’t secure his own skies.
Nor can he win the war he started – turning to Trump to end the war for him, offering a “portfolio of potential U.S.-Russia projects over $14 trillion” to get Zelensky to ‘surrender.’
Problem is – Trump can’t deliver. And the President has lost his leverage over Zelensky.
A May 9 Victory Day ceasefire only benefits Russia. The answer from Ukraine is likely a hard no – though it is unlikely they would strike the parade.
Russia would though. According to the Ukraine General Staff, they violated the Orthodox Easter ceasefire 10,721 times during a 32-hour period from 4 p.m. Moscow time on April 11 through the end of April 12.
***
Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
Russia has lost so much man power and equipment the only reason they are still fighting at this point is purely because they are trying to “save face”.
More Trillions "promised"...and Trump lights up like a slot machine hit the jackpot.
Yet he's clueless he's getting played.