INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
03.09.2026
March 9th, 2026
Greetings! It is Day 10 of the war in Iran. If you believe Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, it is just getting started. If you caught President Donald Trump’s press conference this evening, then you’d be forgiven if you thought it was nearly over.
Photo credit: Kevin Lamarque / Reuters.
Mixed messaging is never good. Especially during a war unless it is designed to achieve strategic ambiguity.
It’s hard to see that here.
Our best read—and it is just a read—is that Trump is beginning to process that the U.S. will soon achieve the vast majority of its military targets leaving only Iran’s nuclear weapons program—especially the 460 kilos of 60% highly enriched uranium (HEU)—and regime change on the to-do list.
The Pentagon—also known in Washington, D.C. as the Puzzle Palace—may or may not disagree that we are there yet as Trump implied today. Especially since the USS George H. W. Bush carrier strike force was dispatched to the Middle East.
It is hard to foresee a scenario that does not involve the U.S. & Israeli securing the 460 kilos of 60% HEU. Special forces could be one way. Regime change—potentially—could offer an alternative approach.
Today—and Jon takes the lead here—we explore regime change in Iran & how that might be achieved.
Let’s get started!
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In his book, “On War”, Prussian military theorist Gen. Carl von Clausewitz—famously—described war as “the continuation of politics by other means.” He noted that, “war is not an isolated, irrational act, but a strategic tool used by governments to achieve specific political objectives when diplomacy fails.”
Lithograph credit: Franz Michekis. Gen. Carl von Clausewitz.
Diplomacy failed on February 27th, when Iranian negotiators gave Team Trump a one-word answer to their demands concerning uranium enrichment: “NO.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said it bluntly in a note to US envoy Steve Witkoff, “Curious to know why we do not capitulate? Because we are IRANIAN.”
The next day Trump & Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu let loose the dogs of war.
Their opening salvo? Eliminating Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei & decapitating command & control elements of his regime.
The U.S.-Israeli political objective?
It was crystal clear: regime change.
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As we observed last week, Admiral Brad Cooper, the Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) described Operation Epic Fury as an “unprecedented operation to eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten Americans.”
After providing a detailed summary of the operation—highlighting success & the battle damage assessment (BDA)—he concluded his update by saying, “We, alongside our partners, will absolutely achieve our military objectives.”
As we head into Day 11 of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, Trump feels as though the war is “nearly completed.”
The President told CBS News this afternoon, “We’re very far ahead of schedule,” adding that “[Iran has] no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”
The metrics all seem to support Trump’s comments. The Iranian navy & their air force have been decimated. Ballistic missile & drone mobile launchers, production facilities & storage facilities are being destroyed.
Tehran’s proxies—including Hezbollah, Hamas & the Houthis along with a dozen others—are being left to wither on a vine.
Significantly, Iran’s ability to enrich uranium & produce a nuclear weapon are being neutralized; however, there is more work to be done. Pickaxe Mountain—near the Natanz nuclear weapons facilities—still needs to be destroyed.
But what happens when you achieve your military objectives, but fail to achieve your political Clausewitz-like objective?
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Iran’s Assembly of Experts voted Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei—the son of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—as the country’s new leader today.
Photo credit: Associated Press. A regime supporter holds up a photograph of Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran.
The people of Iran had no say. Rather, this came from an institution within the existing regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is simply more of the same. As the saying goes, they just rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic.
By all accounts, he is more extreme—a hardliner—than his father. And with the loss of four family members—his father, mother, Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, his wife, Zahra Haddad-Adel, and one of his two sons, in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes—he has an ax to grind as well.
That is not regime change, & it certainly does not meet Trump’s conditions for ‘unconditional surrender’ either.
Trump has said “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me. We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran.”
Mojtaba isn’t that guy. Especially since he was favored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
[Interesting side note: He has yet to make an appearance. Thus far—as we write this—all of the announcements depicting him as the new Supreme Leader are made with A.I. Rumor has it, he’s badly injured. He may not even know he’s been elected.]
The question now is how to get beyond Mojtaba & anyone like him who may follow if Israel or the U.S. takes them out.
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It begins with the IRGC. Their first & foremost mission? Keeping the regime in power. They report directly to the Supreme Leader.
In U.S. Army operational terms, the IRGC is the regime’s “center of gravity”—the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act.
At the end of the day, Mojtaba—whoever is chosen to fill the shoes of the Supreme Leader after him—doesn’t really matter. Defeat the IRGC & the regime will collapse.
When, & how, does the Trump Administration attack the source of power that keeps the regime in power?
Achieving our military objectives is the first step. That means defeating Iran’s ability to retaliate & to pose a threat to the U.S. & our partners.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz—quickly resuming the flow of oil shipments from the Gulf States—is the second part.
Washington’s Arab nation partners need assurances. Trump needs to deliver. Iran is a weakened state. We’re already seeing signs from the U.S.’s Arab partners questioning Iran’s ability to act against them.
Winning does that.
Qatar announced yesterday they were going to finally expel the senior leadership of the Hamas terrorist group from the country. On March 2nd, they shot down two Su-24 Russian-made fighter jets coming from Iran.
Lebanon today called for direct talks with Israel on “permanent arrangements for security and stability on our borders,” while accusing Hezbollah of betraying their country. That is a seismic shift for the better.
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Eventually—however—the fight has to be taken directly to the IRGC. Their defeat likely will not come from air strikes. They can set the necessary conditions, but their ouster has to come from the tip of the sword.
No, we are not calling for wide-scale U.S. boots on the ground. Our strong preference is that those swords come from within Iran.
Iran urgently needs a dynamic leader that can persuade his IRGC counterparts to stand-down in a manner similar to the Emperor of Japan, who was able to convince his commanders and his countrymen to preserve the Imperial institution and maintain “honor” in defeat at the conclusion of World War II.
Or—absent an IRGC commander—an influential General Officer within the Iranian military who can organize & lead an armed rebellion against the IRGC to secure an independent Persia free of the existing regime.
There is recent precedent for this in the Middle East. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa—previously a member of Al Qaeda in Iraq—cut his ties with the terrorist group & led a liberation army to oust Bashar al-Assad & the Ba’athists from Syria.
Whoever it is—if they can be found in Iran—will likely need assistance in organization & military support.
That could lead to ‘boots on the ground’ in the form of clandestine U.S. operators or Special Forces teams reminiscent of initial operations in Afghanistan—a 12 Strong type of response. But this cannot lead to occupation – as we have learned occupation tends to lead to insurgency.
Something has to be done to defeat the IRGC. To declare victory after achieving the military objectives & somehow leave the regime in place would be a win for the Islamic Republic of Iran. They will regroup, reorganize, & come back with a vengeance.
No, we need to finish the job this time. Sometimes you need a winner & now is that time & Iran is that place.
***
ICYMI!
Jon was on Al Qahera News in Cairo, Egypt earlier today talking about the latest on the war in Iran. You can watch it here.
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ICYMI #2
Mark was on NDTV in New Delhi, India covering Trump’s press conference & more. You can watch it here.
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Thank you for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment & share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
How does moving anti-missile systems from Korea to the Middle East, and consulting Ukrainian anti-drone pros for help, fit in with the Iran's military is decimated narrative?
https://captainfransentim.substack.com/p/the-edge-of-fire-america-iran-and?r=5jmmex&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web