INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

12.09.2025

Greetings! The fallout in Washington DC and across the country from President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy is widening.

Photo Credit: Jeenah Moon for Reuters.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board in an op ed slammed it as a “Trump Doctrine of Contradictions.”

We concur.

It is contradictory and as we argued here on Friday, it is also unbalanced in that it over-relies on the E in DIME at the expense of other instruments of national power.

Trade deals are not going to placate our foes. Nor solve the increasingly kinetic great power competition between the U.S., China and Russia.

As the WSJ observes, “Americans elected Mr. Trump in 2016 in part because they didn’t fancy Barack Obama’s naivete about our adversaries and his retreat from U.S. leadership.” Yet, as they bluntly note, “Trump is reviving much of that failed grand strategy in his second term.”

You can read the WSJ op ed here. Our gift to you.

We would go one step further. Early and often, we warned that former President Joe Biden was creating a permissive environment that encouraged Moscow and Beijing to fill vacuums being left by American recidivism.

They also exploited it. Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan proved to be a greenlight for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Likewise, Biden did the same in Africa – abandoning a key U.S. airbase in Niger and withdrawing U.S. diplomatic and military personnel from our embassy in Sudan.

Ever since, Russian paramilitary forces have run amok across the Sahel in Africa toppling one democracy after another – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. As we noted here yesterday, Benin likely has fallen as well.

Shortly before Trump took office, we urged the president to end Biden’s permissive environment. Instead, in light of the NSS, he has doubled down on it.

It’s time to circle the globe again highlighting the major national security stories of the day. Lot’s happening.

Let’s get started.

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NORTH AMERICA

Trump – once again – has Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his crosshairs. Dissatisfied by Ukraine’s objections to his peace plan, Trump has gone on the attack. Late yesterday evening while at the Kennedy Center, he complained that Zelensky hadn’t read the latest version of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s peace plan.

The President disingenuously claimed that “[Zelensky’s] people love it.” He added, even more incredulously, that “Russia’s fine with it.”

Quite the opposite, earlier this year, more than “50% of Ukrainians were critical of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace efforts, fearing they are likely to lead to a partly unjust or completely unfair end to Russia’s war on their country.”

That prevailing sentiment has proved prescient. Fast forward to late November. 43% of Ukrainians find Trump’s plan unacceptable. 33% believe it needs work. Only 17% -- likely pro-Russians – believe it acceptable.

That’s hardly loving it.

Today, Trump upped the ante. In an interview with Politico, he claimed that “[Ukraine] is using the war not to hold an election.” He added that, “They talk about having a democracy, but it gets to the point where it’s not a democracy anymore.”

Hardly. Ukraine’s Constitution, under Article 83, explicitly prohibits war time elections when martial law is in effect.

Zelensky responded that he is “ready for elections” and called “on the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine’s parliament to help” achieve the necessary “security and legal conditions” for the country to hold new elections.

Other obstacles remain. Ukraine’s Constitution, under Article 157, mandates that the constitution “shall not be amended in conditions of martial law or a state of emergency.” Given that the country continues to be under daily Russian kinetic attack, it is unreasonable to ask Kyiv to lift martial law or states of emergency.

Why?

Putin has demonstrated time and again that he is willing to attack Ukrainian civilian targets and infrastructure. Who is to say that if elections were to take place that Putin wouldn’t order strikes on polling booths in districts that are anti-Moscow while leaving the minority of pro-Russian Ukrainians alone?

In Trump’s haste to reach a deal with Putin, seemingly he keeps overlooking that Putin and his Kremlin cronies have manipulated election after election including Putin’s presidential election. They recently did just that in Moldova and Romania – not to mention the U.S.

Why would Ukraine be any different?

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SOUTH AMERICA

Venezuela remains a central focus. CNN reports that the “Trump administration is working on day-after plans in the event [Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro is ousted from power.”

Congress as a whole remains skeptical including many on the GOP side of the aisle. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) cautioned that “There’s a difference between striking boats that are potentially … [carrying] traffickers and landing troops in Venezuela.”

Meanwhile, Politico is reporting today that the Senate is speeding “towards [a] war powers clash as Trump ratchets up threats of [military] strikes in Venezuela.” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said “It makes me hope that I’ll get more votes on my ‘no war in Venezuela without a vote from Congress’ plan when it comes up next week.”

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EUROPE

Kyvi is dominating European headlines today. Zelensky’s defiance of Trump in the wake of pressure campaign to force Ukraine to cede the entire Donbas – including areas still controlled by Ukraine – was likely fueled by European support he received yesterday while meeting in London with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron.

As we noted this morning on our weekly Tuesday War & Politics 24 newsmagazine show in Ukraine, Zelensky’s defiance is needed. Ukraine is facing its “Never Surrender” moment in time. Just as British Prime Minister Winston Churchill didn’t cave into the Nazis after the evacuation of Dunkirk in 1940, Ukraine cannot capitulate to Russia either.

Doing so, as Jon emphasized today during the program, would leave Kyiv and Ukraine’s strategic Black Sea port city of Odesa denuded of defensive lines and belts. Ceding Fortress Donbas would expose both and it would be the first step in Ukraine irresponsibly committing national and military suicide.

However, Zelensky being defiant isn’t enough. As we argued frequently over the past month, it is time for Europe to stop being a coalition of the willing and immediately become a coalition of the DOING!

Taurus missiles, air defense assets, a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine are all things that should have been done yesterday by the coalition. Waiting for Team Trump to negotiate away Ukraine cannot be an option.

Europe must act! And act now!

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MIDDLE EAST

In today’s most underreported story, Tom Barrack, the U.S. special envoy for Syria, speaking in Doha, Qatar, declared that “benevolent monarchy” is what has “worked best” for the Middle East. Sadly, gone are the days when Washington embraced democracy. Now, the White House is advocating for autocratic governments.

While this approach fits with the direction of Trump’s new NSS, it will not in the long run end well. Our democracy is not well suited to dealing with tyrants – even of the benevolent kind. By no means are we arguing for regime change.

Rather, we are simply saying don’t advocate for a form of government that is an anathema to the founding core values of our country as set forth in the Declaration of Independence and our Constitution.

Nearly 250 years ago we rejected monarchy. Let’s not embrace it now because it might be convenient.

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AFRICA

Escalating numbers of coups and attempted coups across the Sahel is imperiling an entire region in West Africa.

Omar Touray, the president of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, said that there is an alarming “growing erosion of electoral inclusivity across multiple states.” Translation: African democracies are under attack.

Tragically, given the new NSS, they are unlikely to get help from the U.S.; nor from their former colonizer – France. More easy pick-ups for Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at Washington’s expense.

That’s what happens when your foes are playing a global game while the White House decides its more about hemispheres and only those hemispheres that count.

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INDO-PACIFIC

Earlier today, Trump announced on Truth Social that he “informed President Xi … that the United States will allow NVIDIA to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China, and other Countries, under conditions that allow for continued strong National Security.”

The H200 is a sophisticated microchip that has endless dual use applications – and given its advanced artificial intelligence (AI) engineering – it undoubtedly will be used by Beijing to develop military applications and weapons.

Weapons that eventually could face down U.S. troops defending against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Trump rightly criticized Europe for funding Putin’s war against the West by purchasing Russian gas & oil. So why now is he doing something similar by selling the Chinese a highly sophisticated multi-use microchip.

It’s maddening, contradictory and a threat to U.S. national security all rolled up into one. And now it is enabling Beijing and Moscow to get ambitious.

In South Korea today, nine Chinese and Russian military aircraft reportedly entered South Korea’s air defense identification zone over waters in the east and south of the country. It forced the South Korean military to put fighter jets on standby to respond to possible unforeseen actions.

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WHAT WE ARE READING!

Trump sends shockwaves through Latin America as he hints TWO more nations are in his sights for a Venezuela-style crackdown. Phillip Nieto reporting for the Daily Mail.

Russia-Ukraine Live: Trump Gives Zelensky New Deadline On Peace Plan. Hannah Parry, Shane Croucher and John Feng reporting for Newsweek.

Israeli army takes journalists into a tunnel in a Gaza city it seized and largely flattened. Sam Mednick reporting for the Associated Press.

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Thanks for reading! We will see you tomorrow! As always, please subscribe, like and share. Your voice helps ours!

Jon & Mark