INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
12.29.2025
December 30th, 2025
Greetings! Today, we are deviating from our normal format to focus on China’s ongoing military exercises aimed at Taiwan.
Codenamed “Justice Mission 2025,” Beijing is filling up the skies & waters around Taiwan – including in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, Philippine Sea & the South China – with bombers, fighter jets, warships, drones and missiles.
Photo credit: Chinese State Media. Official post commemorating Justice Mission 2025.
Shi Yi, the spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), said the exercise was “a stern warning against “Taiwan Independence” separatist forces and external interference.”
It was more than that.
Beijing’s demonstration of force is also aimed as “hands off” messaging to Japan, the Philippines and President Donald Trump.
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal war against Ukraine began on February 24th, 2022, this is the sixth major Chinese military exercise that is practicing encircling Taiwan with a sea & air blockade.
Graphic credit: Taiwan Security Monitor – George Mason University.
Based on the above graphic overlay created by the Taiwan Security Monitor, we can see that each encirclement exercise has subsequently become significantly larger. It is also indicative of the PLA’s efforts to measure Taipei’s military responses by varying approaches, zones and angles of attack.
Trump said Monday that he is “not worried” by Beijing’s last blockage exercise. He dismissed it by saying “They’ve been doing naval exercises for 20 years in that area.”
That’s in stark contrast to what U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in late May. Speaking in Singapore, he claimed that China’s growing military threat to the Indo-Pacific – and to Taiwan in particular – was “imminent.”
To underscore his point, Hegseth said, “We are not going to sugar coat it. The threat China poses is real.”
Plus, Hegseth’s own annual report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China – issued just last week – notes that “The PLA continues to make steady progress toward its 2027 goals, whereby the PLA must be able to achieve “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan.”
Bluntly, DoD’s assessment is that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.” Notably – indeed, alarmingly – Beijing to achieve that goal is factoring the need to “strike U.S. forces in the Pacific.” Significantly, the report states explicitly that the PLA practiced doing just that in 2024.”
Given the increasing scale of China’s Taiwan invasion and/or blockage simulations and given the fact that Trump admitted that Chinese President Xi Jinping did not give him advance warning of the Justice Mission exercise, Team Trump must factor in whether or not Beijing is attempting to create a false sense of security.
Potentially, one day – sooner than later – one of these Chinese exercises could be turned into the real thing. Whether Beijing would preemptively strike U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific remains to be seen.
But Washington must be prepared. We don’t need two Pearl Harbors – arguably a third if we include 9/11 – in less than 100 years.
The Puzzle Palace – also known as the Pentagon – needs to be factoring as well in China’s reaction to Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s new prime minister. Speaking to a parliamentary committee, she said any attack against Taiwan “could trigger the deployment of her country’s self-defense forces if the conflict posed an existential threat to Japan.”
Photo credit: Yoshio Tsunoda/AFLO. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Beijing went ballistic. Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, Japan reacted on X by saying, “We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation. Are you ready?”
That suggests to us that the PLA has based much of its war game-planning of any invasion and/or blockade of Taiwan on the assumption that they would be only faced with confronting Taiwanese & U.S. forces.
Intentionally or not, Takaichi may have just upset that applecart. If our reading is correct, then it could be that the PLA is behind on contingency planning if Japan or other Indo-Pacific countries come to Taiwan’s defense.
Therein also lies another rub IF you are Beijing. If Japan is willing to take the lead – especially since its constitution prohibits offensive use of military force – then China will also have to factor in who else will follow.
We’ve long argued that Tokyo should rescind Article 9. Now would be a good time for Takaichi to get that done. Especially since 2027 is fast approaching. Doing so would likely force Xi and the PLA to change its cost calculus in considering whether to forcibly retake Taiwan or, at a minimum, buy Taiwan more time.
Trump, meanwhile, also needs to build upon AUKUS – the Indo-Pacific alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. – to include other Indo-Pacific nations into a broader NATO-like organization to protect common economic, military and other security interests across the region from Beijing.
New AUKUS submarines alone are not going to stop China from potentially invading and/or blockading Taiwan as soon as 2027. Especially since they are not due to be delivered until the early 2030s.
Beijing is pounding the war drums. Not the U.S. But when China’s Eastern Theater Command distributes a poster showing the PLA bashing Taiwan with two hammers, it is time for Washington to sit up and take notice.
Photo credit: Chinese State Media. Official post commemorating Justice Mission 2025.
China, obviously, is a pacing threat for the U.S. Taiwan is only one theater of a much broader global conflict that is slowly unfolding between Beijing & Washington. But given the strategic importance Taiwan plays in defending U.S. interest in the Pacific Rim – including commercial trade – losing there could also mean losing the Pacific.
***
PROGRAMMING NOTE!
Please catch Mark tomorrow on Q News at 10AM ET. He will be discussing U.S. foreign policy going into 2026.
You can also catch Mark later tomorrow on TVP World at 1:20PM ET (20:20 CET). He will be appearing on the World News Main Edition.
***
ICYMI, Mark was on Alghad TV in Cairo, Egypt today. He discussed the obstacles of getting to Phase II of the Hamas-Israel peace accord signed in October at Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. He also warned unless Hamas & Iran’s influence are eliminated, progress will be difficult & that war could break out again in the region.
Not just Gaza, but Lebanon, Syria and Iran as well.
***
Thanks for reading! We will see you tomorrow. Please subscribe, comment and share. We truly appreciate it!
Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social.
Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.