INTREP360 INTELLIGENCE REPORT
05.11.2026
May 11th, 2026
Greetings!
It’s Monday, and the President didn’t get the answer he wanted from Iran over the weekend.
Not that anyone should be surprised though.
Photo Credit: Atta Kenare / AFP via Getty Images. A woman holds the Iranian flag as she stands in front of an anti-U.S. billboard on a building at Valiasr Square in Tehran on Sunday.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei accused the U.S. of “one-sided views” and “making unreasonable” and “excessive demands.” “Everything we proposed,” he said, was “reasonable and generous not only for Iran’s national interests, but also for the good and well-being of the region and the world.”
The two countries remain at an impasse.
But it’s bigger than that - so let’s break it down a little.
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ALBERT EINSTEIN’S DEFINITION OF INSANITY
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Iran’s response to President Donald Trump’s latest ‘peace proposal’ fits that very definition.
The White House is struggling in their negotiations with Iran’s fractured leadership. As the President commented, “They have the moderates, they’re dying to make a deal, and then you have the lunatics. The lunatics want to fight till the end.”
But the simple fact here is that the “lunatics” – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – are running the asylum now. Something the Trump Administration seems to ignore as they continue to beat their heads against the wall.
U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner can make deals with moderates all day, but that won’t change the outcome.
The President is going to have to finish what he started. And quite frankly, this will only end with regime change – not by rearranging the deck chairs on the Iranian Titanic.
There are no shortcuts here. Basij paramilitary forces are not going to allow Iranian citizens to rise up to ‘take back their country’ as both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for on February 28th and March 13th respectfully.
And while the President continues to assert that “Iran has been defeated militarily; totally,” they – (IRGC) leader Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi – does not seem to think so.
As Jon stated on X yesterday, “The President can say it all he wants – but Iran clearly doesn’t believe it’s been militarily defeated. The IRGC – the regime’s center of gravity – is still very much in charge and believes they have a strong enough hand and time to withstand whatever Trump throws at them.”
Trump is going to have to knock that chip off Vahidi’s shoulder.
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WHAT IRAN WANTS
As the Institute for the Study of War accurately concludes, “The Iranian regime insists on asserting its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and does not appear willing to make meaningful concessions regarding its nuclear program.”
Hard red-lines for the White House.
Their counter proposal also included demands for an end to the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and an immediate release of Iranian frozen assets, and that they would “only be willing to engage in negotiations after the U.S. met their demands.”
It made no mention of their support to proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Shi’a militias – their ballistic missile and drone programs, direct military aid from Russia and China, nor the brutal repression and execution of their own citizens.
Hard red-lines for Jerusalem and their own national security interests.
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IRANIAN LEVERAGE
You would think that the Islamic Republic of Iran was negotiating from a position of strength. And why wouldn’t they? It was Trump that halted Operation Epic Fury after 38-days to negotiate a ceasefire – Iran didn’t cry uncle.
The White House has Witkoff and Kushner on standby to launch to Islamabad or seemingly wherever when Iran gets around to calling. And Trump readily extends ceasefires to avoid having to make good on threats of resuming offensive operations: “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts.”
As the Wall Street Journal editorial board surmised – “Iran thinks Trump is bluffing.”
Trump has stated, “We may go back to Project Freedom if things don’t happen.” This would be “Project Freedom plus other things,” which may be necessary to protect oil tankers.
All Iran hears is yada, yada, yada.
From Iran’s perspective – how serious can the White House be when they fire missiles and drones at U.S. Navy ships and the United Arab Emirates, only to hear Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hedgseth say that the ceasefire is ‘holding?’
There are no consequences to their aggression. Reprisals, yes, but limited.
The author of ‘The Art of the Deal’ has been reduced to chasing a ceasefire – and Iran is making the most of the ill-fated efforts. As we have said, Vahidi has broken the Trump code.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters on Friday that his country will “never bow to pressure” and that the Iranian military retains “1,000%” readiness to “defend our people” amid discussions.
Tehran may also be starting to believe their own press – or at least what western media is printing. The Atlantic recently ran a piece entitled “Checkmate in Iran” in which Robert Kagan, a contributing writer for the magazine and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, states that “Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely.”
Photo Credit: Illustration by The Atlantic. Sources: Amirhossein Khorgooe / AFP / Getty; Maximillian Mann / The New York Times / Redux; Saul Loeb / AFP / Getty.
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THE WAY AHEAD
So while the President may have posted on Truth Social, “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” It remains to be seen what actions he will take.
The President told us today that the ceasefire is on “massive life support, and that he is now more seriously considering a resumption of major combat operations.”
American forces are in place – he just needs to give the order to U.S. CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper.
The trip to Beijing later this week to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping certainly complicates things.
And, given their strategic defense partnership with Israel – so to do reports that the UAE has been carrying out military strikes inside Iran. Middle East analyst Dina Esfandiary acknowledges that, “It’s significant to have a Gulf Arab country as a warring party that struck Iran directly.”
The Wall Street Journal adds that in addition to the strikes, the UAE backed a draft United Nations resolution authorizing “the use of force if necessary to break Iran’s chokehold on the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway.”
Furthermore, the UAE has “acted against Iran’s financial interests, closing schools and clubs in Dubai that were linked to Tehran and denying visas and transit rights to Iranian citizens.”
Iran has responded by repeatedly accusing the UAE of joining the U.S. and Israeli campaign.
More to follow.
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Thank you for reading. We will see you tomorrow.
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Jon & Mark
Follow Jon on X at @JESweet2022 or on Bluesky at @JonSweet.bsky.social. Follow Mark on X at @MCTothSTL or on Bluesky at @MarkToth.bsky.social.
The insanity is Trump.
Negotiations, especially with Witkoff and Kushner, will never amount to a pile of beans.
Only one way. My bet is either before Trump has to go to Beijing (to reschedule it, again, of course); or immediately after.